ScoreProb
Super League Uzbekistan Round 27 2026

Andijan vs Lokomotiv

Andijan Home · Elo 1,485
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lokomotiv Away · Elo 1,537
Bobur Arena, Andijan Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Andijan win
Andijan winPick
43.0%
Draw
29.4%
Lokomotiv win
27.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.0%
No49.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.5%
Under 2.546.5%

How much we know

Andijan history65 matches
Lokomotiv history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Andijan are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lokomotiv are rated 52 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,537 against 1,485. On rating alone Lokomotiv would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Lokomotiv score more

    1.11 goals a game over 65 matches for Andijan, against 1.55 over 42 for Lokomotiv.

  • Lokomotiv concede fewer

    Andijan concede 1.40 a game, Lokomotiv 1.10.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    42% of Andijan matches, against 45% for Lokomotiv. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Andijan
Lokomotiv
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1484.5
ELO
1536.7
65
ELO · Matches
42
1484.5
Current Team ELO
1536.7
1536.7
Current Opponent ELO
1484.5
-52.13
Current ELO Difference
52.13
0.43
Expected score
0.57
65
History Matches
42
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.04
48.32
Overperformance
52.50
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
0.40
Goals for per game
2.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.18
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
42
1.12
PPG
1.67
27.7%
Win rate
47.6%
29.2%
Draw rate
23.8%
43.1%
Loss rate
28.6%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
81.0%
41.5%
Over 2.5 rate
45.2%
21.5%
Over 3.5 rate
26.2%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
22
1.46
PPG
1.55
39.3%
Win rate
45.5%
28.6%
Draw rate
18.2%
32.1%
Loss rate
36.4%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
86.4%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
17.9%
Over 3.5 rate
18.2%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
28
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.11
Goals for per game
1.55
60.0%
Scoring rate
76.2%
46.2%
BTTS rate
52.4%
1.29
Goals for per game
1.45
71.4%
Scoring rate
77.3%
46.4%
BTTS rate
63.6%
1.26
Goals for per game
1.47
63.2%
Scoring rate
82.4%
31.6%
BTTS rate
70.6%
65
History Matches
42
1.11
Goals Mean
1.55
1.19
Goals Std
1.29
60.0%
Scored 1+ rate
76.2%
29.2%
Scored 2+ rate
47.6%
16.9%
Scored 3+ rate
19.0%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.45
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.40
Goals against per game
1.10
75.4%
Conceding rate
69.0%
1.21
Goals against per game
1.27
64.3%
Conceding rate
81.8%
1.05
Goals against per game
1.41
57.9%
Conceding rate
82.4%
65
History Matches
42
1.40
Conceded Mean
1.10
1.21
Conceded Std
0.92
41.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
13.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.1%
1.21
Venue Conceded Mean
1.27
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
42.1%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
36.8%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
42
0.98
Result entropy
0.96
1.55
Goal Difference Std
1.64
1.89
Stability score
4.16
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
42
11
Lead Matches
14
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.90
16
Trailing Matches
9
18.8%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.39
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.91
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.88
Rest days
83.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
44
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.02
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.47
20
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
17
1.42
PPG
1.47
42.1%
Win rate
41.2%
15.8%
Draw rate
23.5%
42.1%
Loss rate
35.3%
63.2%
Over 1.5 rate
88.2%
52.6%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
15.8%
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
19
Current Competition Matches
17
1.42
Current Competition PPG
1.47
0.21
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.06
6
Competition Season Count
3
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.51
0.82
Portability PPG Range
1.25
62.63
Portability Score
49.47
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-52.13
PPG-0.54
GF-0.44
GA0.30
PPG-0.05
PPG-0.08
PPG0.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches23
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate16.2%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate17.5%
Failed-to-score rate5.8%
History Matches23
Goals Mean-0.44
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.06
History Matches23
Conceded Mean0.30
Conceded Std0.29
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate8.2%
Conceded 3+ rate6.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.38
History Matches23
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score-2.27
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.42
Eligible Matches22
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches22
First Half Goals For Mean-0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Current Competition Matches2
Current Competition PPG-0.05
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.15
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.21
Portability PPG Range-0.43
Portability Score13.17
Rest days-10.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches25
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.45
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.61
Current Team ELO-52.13
Current Opponent ELO52.13
Current ELO Difference-104.3
Expected score-0.15
History Matches23
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Andijan

L
Navbahor1–0Andijan31 Oct · away
Pick: Navbahor 49% · hit
D
Dinamo Samarqand1–1Andijan25 Oct · away
Pick: Dinamo Samarqand 42% · missed
W
Sogdiana1–2Andijan20 Oct · away
Pick: Andijan 40% · hit
L
Andijan0–1Qizilqum15 Oct · home
Pick: Andijan 56% · missed
W
Andijan1–0Xorazm25 Aug · home
Pick: Andijan 53% · hit

Lokomotiv

L
Lokomotiv1–2Olmaliq1 Nov · home
Pick: Lokomotiv 41% · missed
D
Qizilqum1–1Lokomotiv25 Oct · away
Pick: Lokomotiv 38% · missed
W
Neftchi2–4Lokomotiv20 Oct · away
Pick: Neftchi 60% · missed
D
Lokomotiv0–0Nasaf17 Oct · home
Pick: Lokomotiv 39% · missed
W
Lokomotiv4–1Bunyodkor26 Aug · home
Pick: Lokomotiv 48% · hit

About this match

Andijan and Lokomotiv meet in Super League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Bobur Arena, Andijan. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Andijan win 43.0%, draw 29.4%, Lokomotiv win 27.6%. The pick is Andijan win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.5%. Both teams to score: 51.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.