ScoreProb
Super League Uzbekistan Round 27 2026

Qizilqum vs Navbahor

Qizilqum Home · Elo 1,447
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Navbahor Away · Elo 1,539
Yoshlar Sport Majmuasi, Navoiy Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Navbahor win
Qizilqum win
24.8%
Draw
24.9%
Navbahor winPick
50.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.6%
No52.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.0%
Under 2.552.0%

How much we know

Qizilqum history50 matches
Navbahor history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Navbahor are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Navbahor are rated 92 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,539 against 1,447. On rating alone Navbahor would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Navbahor score far more

    0.90 goals a game over 50 matches for Qizilqum, against 1.40 over 55 for Navbahor.

  • Navbahor concede fewer

    Qizilqum concede 1.54 a game, Navbahor 1.24.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Qizilqum matches, against 45% for Navbahor. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Qizilqum
Navbahor
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1447.0
ELO
1539.1
50
ELO · Matches
55
1447.0
Current Team ELO
1539.1
1539.1
Current Opponent ELO
1447.0
-92.09
Current ELO Difference
92.09
0.37
Expected score
0.63
50
History Matches
55
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.03
45.79
Overperformance
52.01
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.60
0.80
Goals for per game
2.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.70
1.30
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.49
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.42
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.80
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
55
1.10
PPG
1.47
28.0%
Win rate
40.0%
26.0%
Draw rate
27.3%
46.0%
Loss rate
32.7%
68.0%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
46.0%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
24.0%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
30
1.52
PPG
1.13
43.5%
Win rate
30.0%
21.7%
Draw rate
23.3%
34.8%
Loss rate
46.7%
69.6%
Over 1.5 rate
76.7%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
23
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.90
Goals for per game
1.40
58.0%
Scoring rate
70.9%
40.0%
BTTS rate
45.5%
1.13
Goals for per game
1.13
69.6%
Scoring rate
66.7%
43.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.76
Goals for per game
1.61
52.9%
Scoring rate
88.9%
35.3%
BTTS rate
55.6%
50
History Matches
55
0.90
Goals Mean
1.40
0.92
Goals Std
1.33
58.0%
Scored 1+ rate
70.9%
26.0%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
6.0%
Scored 3+ rate
18.2%
1.13
Venue Goals Mean
1.13
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.54
Goals against per game
1.24
70.0%
Conceding rate
65.5%
1.30
Goals against per game
1.63
65.2%
Conceding rate
76.7%
1.53
Goals against per game
0.94
76.5%
Conceding rate
61.1%
50
History Matches
55
1.54
Conceded Mean
1.24
1.39
Conceded Std
1.21
44.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.4%
28.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.4%
1.30
Venue Conceded Mean
1.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
42.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.1%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
47.1%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
42.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.1%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
55
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.71
Goal Difference Std
1.86
3.16
Stability score
1.11
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
55
11
Lead Matches
20
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.75
17
Trailing Matches
13
17.6%
Non-loss rate
30.8%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.44
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.46
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
80.98
Rest days
77.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
29
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.52
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
20
Long Rest History Matches
23
0.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
18
1.00
PPG
1.89
29.4%
Win rate
55.6%
11.8%
Draw rate
22.2%
58.8%
Loss rate
22.2%
70.6%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
41.2%
Over 2.5 rate
38.9%
17.6%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
17
Current Competition Matches
18
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.89
-0.76
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
5
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.10
Portability PPG Std
0.37
0.20
Portability PPG Range
0.89
83.33
Portability Score
57.69
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-92.09
PPG-0.37
GF-0.50
GA0.30
PPG-0.89
PPG0.39
PPG-1.80
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate12.9%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate11.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-0.50
Goals Std-0.41
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.74
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.30
Conceded Std0.18
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate7.6%
Conceded 3+ rate11.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.34
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.15
Stability score2.05
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.44
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate2.7%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate5.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.89
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.43
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.27
Portability PPG Range-0.69
Portability Score25.64
Rest days3.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.48
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Current Team ELO-92.09
Current Opponent ELO92.09
Current ELO Difference-184.2
Expected score-0.26
History Matches-5
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Qizilqum

D
Kokand-19120–0Qizilqum30 Oct · away
Pick: Kokand-1912 44% · missed
D
Qizilqum1–1Lokomotiv25 Oct · home
Pick: Lokomotiv 38% · missed
W
Andijan0–1Qizilqum15 Oct · away
Pick: Andijan 56% · missed
W
Qizilqum1–0Nasaf26 Aug · home
Pick: Nasaf 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Navbahor

W
Navbahor1–0Andijan31 Oct · home
Pick: Navbahor 49% · hit
W
Xorazm1–2Navbahor26 Oct · away
Pick: Navbahor 46% · hit
W
Navbahor3–1Gazalkent21 Oct · home
Pick: Navbahor 61% · hit
D
Navbahor1–1Pakhtakor17 Oct · home
Pick: Navbahor 39% · missed
W
Navbahor1–0Nasaf30 Aug · home
Pick: Nasaf 39% · missed

About this match

Qizilqum and Navbahor meet in Super League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Yoshlar Sport Majmuasi, Navoiy. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Qizilqum win 24.8%, draw 24.9%, Navbahor win 50.3%. The pick is Navbahor win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.0%. Both teams to score: 47.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.