ScoreProb
1. Lig Türkiye Round 14 2026

Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor

Antalyaspor Home · Elo 1,432
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bursaspor Away · Elo 1,685
Corendon Airlines Park, Antalya Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bursaspor win
Antalyaspor win
17.5%
Draw
22.5%
Bursaspor winPick
60.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.1%
No55.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.6%
Under 2.545.4%

How much we know

Antalyaspor history62 matches
Bursaspor history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.0%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Bursaspor are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bursaspor are rated 253 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,685 against 1,432. On rating alone Bursaspor would be expected to take 81% of the points on offer.

  • Bursaspor score far more

    0.98 goals a game over 62 matches for Antalyaspor, against 2.36 over 56 for Bursaspor.

  • Bursaspor concede fewer

    Antalyaspor concede 1.65 a game, Bursaspor 0.70.

  • Bursaspor games more often go over 2.5 goals

    52% of Antalyaspor matches, against 63% for Bursaspor. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Antalyaspor
Bursaspor
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1432.3
ELO
1685.5
62
ELO · Matches
56
1432.3
Current Team ELO
1685.5
1685.5
Current Opponent ELO
1432.3
-253.2
Current ELO Difference
253.2
0.19
Expected score
0.81
62
History Matches
56
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.16
46.25
Overperformance
61.44
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.80
2.40
Goals against per game
0.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
2.30
1.40
Goals for per game
2.00
2.00
Goals against per game
0.40
30.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.61
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.40
1.48
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.74
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
56
1.03
PPG
2.25
27.4%
Win rate
69.6%
21.0%
Draw rate
16.1%
51.6%
Loss rate
14.3%
69.4%
Over 1.5 rate
80.4%
51.6%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
27.4%
Over 3.5 rate
33.9%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.34
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
30
1.34
PPG
1.97
37.5%
Win rate
60.0%
21.9%
Draw rate
16.7%
40.6%
Loss rate
23.3%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
28.1%
Over 3.5 rate
23.3%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.39
32
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.98
Goals for per game
2.36
59.7%
Scoring rate
89.3%
48.4%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.31
Goals for per game
1.90
75.0%
Scoring rate
90.0%
62.5%
BTTS rate
53.3%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
62
History Matches
56
0.98
Goals Mean
2.36
1.01
Goals Std
1.86
59.7%
Scored 1+ rate
89.3%
29.0%
Scored 2+ rate
58.9%
8.1%
Scored 3+ rate
37.5%
1.31
Venue Goals Mean
1.90
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.65
Goals against per game
0.70
75.8%
Conceding rate
48.2%
1.59
Goals against per game
0.97
78.1%
Conceding rate
60.0%
2.67
Goals against per game
0.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
33.3%
62
History Matches
56
1.65
Conceded Mean
0.70
1.43
Conceded Std
0.90
46.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
14.3%
24.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.4%
1.59
Venue Conceded Mean
0.97
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
51.8%
40.3%
Failed-to-score rate
10.7%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
51.8%
40.3%
Failed-to-score rate
10.7%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
51.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
56
0.93
Result entropy
0.75
1.67
Goal Difference Std
2.34
6.82
Stability score
25.02
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
55
13
Lead Matches
33
69.2%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.94
21
Trailing Matches
6
0.0%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.40
First Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.31
0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.29
0.87
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.94
Rest days
76.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
37
Normal Rest History Matches
41
0.78
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.20
22
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.55
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.31
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
2.00
33.3%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
5
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.16
Portability PPG Std
0.14
0.41
Portability PPG Range
0.35
75.40
Portability Score
77.58
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-253.2
PPG-1.22
GF-1.37
GA0.95
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.62
PPG-0.80
PPG-1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.28
Failed-to-score rate29.6%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate15.0%
History Matches6
Goals Mean-1.37
Goals Std-0.85
Scored 1+ rate-0.30
Scored 2+ rate-0.30
Scored 3+ rate-0.29
Venue Goals Mean-0.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.26
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.95
Conceded Std0.52
Clean-sheet rate-0.28
Conceded 2+ rate32.5%
Conceded 3+ rate18.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.82
History Matches6
Result entropy0.18
Goal Difference Std-0.66
Stability score-18.20
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.06
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches-20
Lead Win Rate-0.22
Lead Points Retention-0.20
Trailing Matches15
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean0.47
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.47
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.33
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.02
Portability PPG Range0.06
Portability Score-2.18
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.41
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.76
Current Team ELO-253.2
Current Opponent ELO253.2
Current ELO Difference-506.5
Expected score-0.62
History Matches6
Residual Mean-0.20
Overperformance-15.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Antalyaspor

D
Iğdır FK1–1Antalyaspor1 Nov · away
Pick: Iğdır FK 51% · missed
L
Antalyaspor1–2Bodrum FK25 Oct · home
Pick: Bodrum FK 41% · hit
W
İstanbulspor0–2Antalyaspor18 Oct · away
Pick: İstanbulspor 45% · missed
L
Antalyaspor0–4Kayserispor14 Oct · home
Pick: Kayserispor 41% · hit
W
Bandırmaspor0–1Antalyaspor1 Sep · away
Pick: Bandırmaspor 68% · missed

Bursaspor

W
Bursaspor3–0Bandırmaspor31 Oct · home
Pick: Bursaspor 45% · hit
W
Keçiörengücü2–4Bursaspor25 Oct · away
Pick: Keçiörengücü 37% · missed
W
Bursaspor2–0Pendikspor19 Oct · home
Pick: Bursaspor 65% · hit
W
Muğlaspor0–3Bursaspor15 Oct · away
Pick: Bursaspor 39% · hit
W
Kayserispor1–2Bursaspor29 Aug · away
Pick: Kayserispor 45% · missed

About this match

Antalyaspor and Bursaspor meet in 1. Lig on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Corendon Airlines Park, Antalya. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Antalyaspor win 17.5%, draw 22.5%, Bursaspor win 60.0%. The pick is Bursaspor win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.6%. Both teams to score: 44.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.