ScoreProb
1. Lig Türkiye Round 14 2026

Sarıyer vs Iğdır FK

Sarıyer Home · Elo 1,551
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Iğdır FK Away · Elo 1,501
Yusuf Ziya Öniş Stadium, Istanbul Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sarıyer win
Sarıyer winPick
46.5%
Draw
25.8%
Iğdır FK win
27.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.0%
No48.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.8%
Under 2.551.2%

How much we know

Sarıyer history58 matches
Iğdır FK history63 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Sarıyer are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sarıyer are rated 50 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,551 against 1,501. On rating alone Sarıyer would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Iğdır FK score more

    1.45 goals a game over 58 matches for Sarıyer, against 1.65 over 63 for Iğdır FK.

  • Defences are close

    Sarıyer concede 1.14 a game, Iğdır FK 1.16.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    57% of Sarıyer matches, against 54% for Iğdır FK. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sarıyer
Iğdır FK
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1551.3
ELO
1500.8
58
ELO · Matches
63
1551.3
Current Team ELO
1500.8
1500.8
Current Opponent ELO
1551.3
50.48
Current ELO Difference
-50.48
0.57
Expected score
0.43
58
History Matches
63
0.04
Residual Mean
0.00
52.94
Overperformance
50.11
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
0.60
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
0.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
0.60
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.80
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
63
1.62
PPG
1.51
48.3%
Win rate
41.3%
17.2%
Draw rate
27.0%
34.5%
Loss rate
31.7%
79.3%
Over 1.5 rate
76.2%
56.9%
Over 2.5 rate
54.0%
17.2%
Over 3.5 rate
30.2%
2.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
31
1.96
PPG
1.26
60.7%
Win rate
35.5%
14.3%
Draw rate
19.4%
25.0%
Loss rate
45.2%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
54.8%
17.9%
Over 3.5 rate
29.0%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.43
28
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.45
Goals for per game
1.65
72.4%
Scoring rate
73.0%
41.4%
BTTS rate
50.8%
1.82
Goals for per game
1.52
89.3%
Scoring rate
67.7%
46.4%
BTTS rate
51.6%
1.33
Goals for per game
0.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
33.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
0.0%
58
History Matches
63
1.45
Goals Mean
1.65
1.39
Goals Std
1.73
72.4%
Scored 1+ rate
73.0%
36.2%
Scored 2+ rate
41.3%
22.4%
Scored 3+ rate
23.8%
1.82
Venue Goals Mean
1.52
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.14
Goals against per game
1.16
62.1%
Conceding rate
68.3%
0.79
Goals against per game
1.32
53.6%
Conceding rate
74.2%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
58
History Matches
63
1.14
Conceded Mean
1.16
1.22
Conceded Std
1.01
32.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.9%
12.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.7%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
46.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
10.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
46.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
10.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.3%
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
63
0.93
Result entropy
0.99
2.25
Goal Difference Std
2.17
6.99
Stability score
1.42
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
63
18
Lead Matches
21
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.87
16
Trailing Matches
13
25.0%
Non-loss rate
46.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.94
Rest days
76.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.25
39
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.72
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
17
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.41
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
1.00
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.38
1.00
Portability PPG Range
0.94
51.90
Portability Score
56.67
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
63
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO50.48
PPG0.11
GF-0.20
GA-0.02
PPG0.33
PPG0.71
PPG1.20
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate6.2%
Failed-to-score rate0.6%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate20.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-0.20
Goals Std-0.34
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.60
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.02
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate6.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.22
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score5.57
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.23
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.08
Portability PPG Range0.06
Portability Score-4.77
Rest days-1.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.25
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.28
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.19
Current Team ELO50.48
Current Opponent ELO-50.48
Current ELO Difference101.0
Expected score0.14
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.82
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.35

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sarıyer

L
Vanspor FK1–0Sarıyer31 Oct · away
Pick: Sarıyer 45% · missed
W
Sarıyer1–0Ayvalikgucu27 Oct · home
Pick: Sarıyer 42% · hit
L
Sarıyer0–2Fatih Karagümrük24 Oct · home
Pick: Sarıyer 46% · missed
D
Sivasspor1–1Sarıyer17 Oct · away
Pick: Sarıyer 36% · missed
L
Sarıyer1–4Bodrum FK13 Oct · home
Pick: Sarıyer 45% · missed

Iğdır FK

D
Iğdır FK1–1Antalyaspor1 Nov · home
Pick: Iğdır FK 51% · missed
L
Eskişehirspor1–0Iğdır FK29 Oct · away
Pick: Iğdır FK 40% · missed
W
Bandırmaspor1–2Iğdır FK24 Oct · away
Pick: Bandırmaspor 52% · missed
W
Iğdır FK1–0Boluspor18 Oct · home
Pick: Iğdır FK 51% · hit
D
Keçiörengücü0–0Iğdır FK14 Oct · away
Pick: Keçiörengücü 53% · missed

About this match

Sarıyer and Iğdır FK meet in 1. Lig on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Yusuf Ziya Öniş Stadium, Istanbul. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Sarıyer win 46.5%, draw 25.8%, Iğdır FK win 27.7%. The pick is Sarıyer win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.8%. Both teams to score: 52.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.