ScoreProb
Jupiler Pro League Belgium Round 11 2026

Antwerp vs Lommel United

Antwerp Home · Elo 1,511
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lommel United Away · Elo 1,547
Bosuilstadion Referee: N. Verboomen Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Antwerp win
Antwerp winPick
46.3%
Draw
26.2%
Lommel United win
27.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.4%
No44.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.5%
Under 2.545.5%

How much we know

Antwerp history75 matches
Lommel United history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Antwerp are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lommel United are rated 36 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,547 against 1,511. On rating alone Lommel United would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Lommel United score more

    1.20 goals a game over 75 matches for Antwerp, against 1.63 over 64 for Lommel United.

  • Antwerp concede fewer

    Antwerp concede 1.28 a game, Lommel United 1.55.

  • Lommel United games more often go over 2.5 goals

    45% of Antwerp matches, against 59% for Lommel United. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Antwerp
Lommel United
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1511.0
ELO
1546.6
75
ELO · Matches
64
1511.0
Current Team ELO
1546.6
1546.6
Current Opponent ELO
1511.0
-35.59
Current ELO Difference
35.59
0.45
Expected score
0.55
75
History Matches
64
0.02
Residual Mean
0.04
51.33
Overperformance
53.23
0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.50
1.80
Goals for per game
1.50
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.56
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.34
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
64
1.27
PPG
1.48
33.3%
Win rate
42.2%
26.7%
Draw rate
21.9%
40.0%
Loss rate
35.9%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
45.3%
Over 2.5 rate
59.4%
21.3%
Over 3.5 rate
39.1%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
30
1.37
PPG
1.50
36.6%
Win rate
40.0%
26.8%
Draw rate
30.0%
36.6%
Loss rate
30.0%
87.8%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
58.5%
Over 2.5 rate
56.7%
31.7%
Over 3.5 rate
43.3%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
41
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.20
Goals for per game
1.63
65.3%
Scoring rate
78.1%
45.3%
BTTS rate
59.4%
1.46
Goals for per game
1.60
78.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
61.0%
BTTS rate
63.3%
3.00
Goals for per game
1.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
75
History Matches
64
1.20
Goals Mean
1.63
1.14
Goals Std
1.18
65.3%
Scored 1+ rate
78.1%
36.0%
Scored 2+ rate
53.1%
14.7%
Scored 3+ rate
26.6%
1.46
Venue Goals Mean
1.60
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.28
Goals against per game
1.55
72.0%
Conceding rate
78.1%
1.51
Goals against per game
1.73
82.9%
Conceding rate
76.7%
1.67
Goals against per game
0.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
75
History Matches
64
1.28
Conceded Mean
1.55
1.20
Conceded Std
1.33
34.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.3%
12.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.6%
1.51
Venue Conceded Mean
1.73
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.9%
34.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
17.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.9%
34.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
17.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
64
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.75
Goal Difference Std
1.74
1.22
Stability score
3.12
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
73
Eligible Matches
63
15
Lead Matches
19
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
78.9%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.84
22
Trailing Matches
18
9.1%
Non-loss rate
38.9%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
73
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
76.24
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
43
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.44
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
25
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.04
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.33
PPG
1.33
66.7%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.33
Current Competition PPG
1.33
1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
7
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.61
1.33
Portability PPG Range
1.90
51.07
Portability Score
45.21
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-35.59
PPG-0.22
GF-0.43
GA-0.27
PPG1.00
PPG-0.13
PPG0.00
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate6.1%
Failed-to-score rate12.8%
History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate2.0%
History Matches11
Goals Mean-0.43
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.11
History Matches11
Conceded Mean-0.27
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate6.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.38
History Matches11
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score-1.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.81
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate7.7%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.30
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean-0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.13
Portability PPG Range-0.56
Portability Score5.85
Rest days0.80
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.83
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.15
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.32
Current Team ELO-35.59
Current Opponent ELO35.59
Current ELO Difference-71.18
Expected score-0.10
History Matches11
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-1.89
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Antwerp

L
Cercle Brugge2–1Antwerp1 Nov · away
Pick: Antwerp 46% · missed
W
Antwerp3–0Charleroi24 Oct · home
Pick: Charleroi 39% · missed
W
Heist0–1Antwerp17 Oct · away
Pick: Antwerp 45% · hit
L
Antwerp1–4St. Truiden30 Aug · home
Pick: Antwerp 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Lommel United

W
Lommel United2–0Gent1 Nov · home
Pick: Gent 42% · missed
D
OH Leuven2–2Lommel United24 Oct · away
Pick: Lommel United 54% · missed
L
St. Truiden4–1Lommel United18 Oct · away
Pick: St. Truiden 52% · hit
W
Cercle Brugge0–1Lommel United29 Aug · away
Pick: Cercle Brugge 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Antwerp and Lommel United meet in Jupiler Pro League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. The match is played at Bosuilstadion. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Antwerp win 46.3%, draw 26.2%, Lommel United win 27.5%. The pick is Antwerp win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.5%. Both teams to score: 55.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.