ScoreProb
Jupiler Pro League Belgium Round 11 2026

OH Leuven vs KV Mechelen

OH Leuven Home · Elo 1,445
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
KV Mechelen Away · Elo 1,502
Den Dreef, Heverlee Referee: L. Visser Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: KV Mechelen win
OH Leuven win
28.9%
Draw
23.6%
KV Mechelen winPick
47.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.0%
No44.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.5%
Under 2.546.5%

How much we know

OH Leuven history71 matches
KV Mechelen history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why KV Mechelen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • KV Mechelen are rated 58 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,502 against 1,445. On rating alone KV Mechelen would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.18 goals a game over 71 matches for OH Leuven, against 1.24 over 71 for KV Mechelen.

  • Defences are close

    OH Leuven concede 1.62 a game, KV Mechelen 1.52.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of OH Leuven matches, against 51% for KV Mechelen. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
OH Leuven
KV Mechelen
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1444.9
ELO
1502.4
71
ELO · Matches
71
1444.9
Current Team ELO
1502.4
1502.4
Current Opponent ELO
1444.9
-57.57
Current ELO Difference
57.57
0.42
Expected score
0.58
71
History Matches
71
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.00
47.19
Overperformance
49.68
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
0.40
1.60
Goals for per game
0.60
3.80
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.10
1.60
Goals for per game
1.10
2.40
Goals against per game
1.50
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.69
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.69
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
71
1.08
PPG
1.25
26.8%
Win rate
31.0%
28.2%
Draw rate
32.4%
45.1%
Loss rate
36.6%
74.6%
Over 1.5 rate
74.6%
50.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.7%
29.6%
Over 3.5 rate
32.4%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
38
1.19
PPG
1.11
30.6%
Win rate
28.9%
27.8%
Draw rate
23.7%
41.7%
Loss rate
47.4%
72.2%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
52.6%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
36.8%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
36
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.18
Goals for per game
1.24
67.6%
Scoring rate
77.5%
52.1%
BTTS rate
60.6%
1.31
Goals for per game
1.11
66.7%
Scoring rate
71.1%
50.0%
BTTS rate
52.6%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
33.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
71
History Matches
71
1.18
Goals Mean
1.24
1.20
Goals Std
0.90
67.6%
Scored 1+ rate
77.5%
26.8%
Scored 2+ rate
38.0%
16.9%
Scored 3+ rate
8.5%
1.31
Venue Goals Mean
1.11
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.62
Goals against per game
1.52
76.1%
Conceding rate
78.9%
1.47
Goals against per game
1.71
72.2%
Conceding rate
81.6%
3.00
Goals against per game
2.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
71
History Matches
71
1.62
Conceded Mean
1.52
1.36
Conceded Std
1.24
53.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.3%
16.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.5%
1.47
Venue Conceded Mean
1.71
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.5%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.4%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
23.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.5%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.4%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
23.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
71
0.97
Result entropy
1.00
1.71
Goal Difference Std
1.46
2.71
Stability score
0.23
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
71
13
Lead Matches
22
46.2%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.62
Lead Points Retention
0.79
22
Trailing Matches
25
9.1%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
8.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.91
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.94
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.75
35
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.26
31
Long Rest History Matches
28
0.68
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
0.33
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
100.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
2
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.33
-2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.33
6
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.06
Portability PPG Std
0.54
0.14
Portability PPG Range
1.52
89.09
Portability Score
47.90
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-57.57
PPG-0.17
GF-0.06
GA0.10
PPG-0.33
PPG0.09
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate2.8%
Failed-to-score rate9.9%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate9.4%
Failed-to-score rate4.4%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.06
Goals Std0.31
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate8.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.46
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.10
Conceded Std0.11
Clean-sheet rate2.8%
Conceded 2+ rate11.3%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.48
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.24
Stability score2.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.45
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.27
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.31
Trailing Win Rate1.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.17
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.48
Portability PPG Range-1.38
Portability Score41.19
Rest days6.90
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.75
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.02
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.68
Current Team ELO-57.57
Current Opponent ELO57.57
Current ELO Difference-115.1
Expected score-0.16
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.49
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

OH Leuven

W
St. Truiden1–2OH Leuven1 Nov · away
Pick: St. Truiden 62% · missed
D
OH Leuven2–2Lommel United24 Oct · home
Pick: Lommel United 54% · missed
W
OH Leuven1–0Francs Borains17 Oct · home
Pick: OH Leuven 45% · hit
L
OH Leuven1–2Standard Liege29 Aug · home
Pick: Standard Liege 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

KV Mechelen

W
KV Mechelen1–0Genk31 Oct · home
Pick: Genk 45% · missed
W
KV Mechelen5–1AS Eupen18 Oct · home
Pick: KV Mechelen 48% · hit
D
RAAL La Louvière2–2KV Mechelen29 Aug · away
Pick: RAAL La Louvière 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

OH Leuven and KV Mechelen meet in Jupiler Pro League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:15 UTC. The match is played at Den Dreef, Heverlee. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: OH Leuven win 28.9%, draw 23.6%, KV Mechelen win 47.5%. The pick is KV Mechelen win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.5%. Both teams to score: 56.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.