ScoreProb
Jupiler Pro League Belgium Round 11 2026

RAAL La Louvière vs Cercle Brugge

RAAL La Louvière Home · Elo 1,458
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cercle Brugge Away · Elo 1,470
Easi Arena Referee: W. Smet Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: RAAL La Louvière win
RAAL La Louvière winPick
43.4%
Draw
22.6%
Cercle Brugge win
34.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.9%
No44.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.6%
Under 2.543.4%

How much we know

RAAL La Louvière history61 matches
Cercle Brugge history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why RAAL La Louvière are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,458 against 1,470. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Cercle Brugge score more

    1.15 goals a game over 61 matches for RAAL La Louvière, against 1.45 over 62 for Cercle Brugge.

  • RAAL La Louvière concede fewer

    RAAL La Louvière concede 1.28 a game, Cercle Brugge 1.69.

  • Cercle Brugge games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of RAAL La Louvière matches, against 61% for Cercle Brugge. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
RAAL La Louvière
Cercle Brugge
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1458.4
ELO
1470.0
61
ELO · Matches
62
1458.4
Current Team ELO
1470.0
1470.0
Current Opponent ELO
1458.4
-11.61
Current ELO Difference
11.61
0.48
Expected score
0.52
61
History Matches
62
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.02
46.86
Overperformance
48.34
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
0.60
0.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
2.20
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
0.70
0.90
Goals for per game
1.50
1.60
Goals against per game
2.30
20.0%
Win rate
10.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.25
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
62
1.21
PPG
1.10
29.5%
Win rate
25.8%
32.8%
Draw rate
32.3%
37.7%
Loss rate
41.9%
70.5%
Over 1.5 rate
88.7%
50.8%
Over 2.5 rate
61.3%
19.7%
Over 3.5 rate
40.3%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
31
1.32
PPG
1.10
32.1%
Win rate
25.8%
35.7%
Draw rate
32.3%
32.1%
Loss rate
41.9%
60.7%
Over 1.5 rate
87.1%
39.3%
Over 2.5 rate
61.3%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
38.7%
1.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
28
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.15
Goals for per game
1.45
62.3%
Scoring rate
79.0%
54.1%
BTTS rate
67.7%
1.11
Goals for per game
1.45
53.6%
Scoring rate
74.2%
42.9%
BTTS rate
61.3%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
61
History Matches
62
1.15
Goals Mean
1.45
1.27
Goals Std
1.16
62.3%
Scored 1+ rate
79.0%
29.5%
Scored 2+ rate
41.9%
13.1%
Scored 3+ rate
16.1%
1.11
Venue Goals Mean
1.45
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.28
Goals against per game
1.69
73.8%
Conceding rate
82.3%
1.07
Goals against per game
1.71
64.3%
Conceding rate
80.6%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
61
History Matches
62
1.28
Conceded Mean
1.69
1.09
Conceded Std
1.17
37.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
53.2%
11.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.4%
1.07
Venue Conceded Mean
1.71
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
17.7%
37.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.0%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
46.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
17.7%
37.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.0%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
46.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
17.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
62
1.00
Result entropy
0.98
1.53
Goal Difference Std
1.69
0.46
Stability score
1.79
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
62
12
Lead Matches
21
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.75
17
Trailing Matches
24
29.4%
Non-loss rate
29.2%
17.6%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.46
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.04
Rest days
76.14
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
32
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.25
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.17
26
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.15
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.18
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
0.67
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
66.7%
100.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.67
-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.85
Portability PPG Std
0.28
2.33
Portability PPG Range
0.64
36.92
Portability Score
63.89
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-11.61
PPG0.12
GF-0.30
GA-0.41
PPG-0.67
PPG0.22
PPG-0.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate8.5%
Failed-to-score rate16.7%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate16.4%
Failed-to-score rate20.6%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.30
Goals Std0.11
Scored 1+ rate-0.17
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean-0.34
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.21
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.41
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate8.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Conceded Mean-0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.01
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.16
Stability score-1.33
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.30
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate28.6%
Lead Points Retention0.25
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate0.2%
Trailing Win Rate17.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.57
Portability PPG Range1.69
Portability Score-26.97
Rest days1.91
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.08
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Current Team ELO-11.61
Current Opponent ELO11.61
Current ELO Difference-23.22
Expected score-0.03
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.48
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

RAAL La Louvière

L
Charleroi5–2RAAL La Louvière1 Nov · away
Pick: Charleroi 67% · hit
W
RAAL La Louvière3–0Zulte Waregem24 Oct · home
Pick: Zulte Waregem 48% · missed
W
RAAL La Louvière4–0Liège17 Oct · home
Pick: Liège 38% · missed
D
RAAL La Louvière2–2KV Mechelen29 Aug · home
Pick: RAAL La Louvière 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Cercle Brugge

W
Cercle Brugge2–1Antwerp1 Nov · home
Pick: Antwerp 46% · missed
L
Union St. Gilloise5–2Cercle Brugge25 Oct · away
Pick: Union St. Gilloise 71% · hit
W
Sporting Hasselt1–2Cercle Brugge16 Oct · away
Pick: Sporting Hasselt 44% · missed
L
Cercle Brugge0–1Lommel United29 Aug · home
Pick: Cercle Brugge 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

RAAL La Louvière and Cercle Brugge meet in Jupiler Pro League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. The match is played at Easi Arena. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: RAAL La Louvière win 43.4%, draw 22.6%, Cercle Brugge win 34.0%. The pick is RAAL La Louvière win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.6%. Both teams to score: 55.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.