ScoreProb
AFC Women's Champions League World Group Stage 2026

April W vs Hồ Chí Minh City W

April W Home · Elo 1,520
Full time
6–0
Half time 2–0
Wed 4 Nov · 08:30 UTC
Hồ Chí Minh City W Away · Elo 1,507
Kishore Bharati Krirangan, Kolkata Referee: to be announced Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
What we said before kickoff Result: April W win
April W winPick Result
63.9%
Draw
17.1%
Hồ Chí Minh City W win
19.0%

How our picks did

Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.

3 of 3 hit
Match result
Our pickApril W win · 63.9%
What happenedApril W win · we gave it 63.9%
Hit
Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 69.2%
What happenedOver · 6 goals
Hit
Both teams to score
Our pickNo · 51.8%
What happenedNo · 6–0
Hit

How surprising was it?

Result: April W win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.

64%
chance we gave it
0%50%100%
1 in 1.6
on average
A pick at 64% is expected to miss about 4 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record

Timeline

Newest at the bottom

Penalty goalMyong Yu-Jong
8'
GoalJong Pok-Yong · assist Jon Ryong-Jong
18'
SubstitutionPak Ok-I off · C. Kang-ryon on
45+1'
SubstitutionS. Pom Hyang off · R. Myong Chong on
45+1'
46'
SubstitutionA. G. Joelma off · K. Thua on
46'
SubstitutionK. Siddiqi off · T. X. Tran Thi on
SubstitutionMyong Yu-Jong off · S. Kim on
46'
GoalJon Ryong-Jong · assist C. Kang-ryon
48'
SubstitutionHan Jin-Hong off · C. Song-gyong on
60'
SubstitutionJon Ryong-Jong off · Choe Il-Son on
60'
GoalC. Song-gyong · assist C. Kang-ryon
71'
75'
SubstitutionHuynh Nhu off · T. Tran Thi on
75'
SubstitutionNguyen Thi Thuy Linh off · Dau Nguyen Quynh Anh on
82'
SubstitutionDo Thi Thuy Kieu off · H. Cu Thi on
GoalR. Su-yang · assist Choe Il-Son
87'
GoalC. Song-gyong · assist C. Kang-ryon
90+2'

Both teams to score

Yes48.2%
No51.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.2%
Under 2.530.8%

How much we know

April W history2 matches
Hồ Chí Minh City W history6 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 23 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 08:30 UTC
  4. Full time: 6–0All three of our picks hit
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

Share this result

A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.

The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
Save picture

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (63.9%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why April W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,520 against 1,507. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • April W score far more

    8.50 goals a game over 2 matches for April W, against 1.33 over 6 for Hồ Chí Minh City W.

  • April W concede fewer

    April W concede 0.50 a game, Hồ Chí Minh City W 2.00.

  • April W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    100% of April W matches, against 50% for Hồ Chí Minh City W. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
April W
Hồ Chí Minh City W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1520.2
ELO
1506.7
2
ELO · Matches
6
1520.2
Current Team ELO
1506.7
1506.7
Current Opponent ELO
1520.2
13.51
Current ELO Difference
-13.51
0.52
Expected score
0.48
2
History Matches
6
0.51
Residual Mean
0.03
54.59
Overperformance
50.62
0.51
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
2
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
1.20
8.50
Goals for per game
0.60
0.50
Goals against per game
1.60
100.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2
Matches
6
3.00
PPG
1.50
8.50
Goals for per game
1.33
0.50
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Win rate
50.0%
8.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.33
4.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.80
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.53
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
5.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.05
Overall performance9 signals
90
2
Matches
6
3.00
PPG
1.50
100.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
5.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
4
3.00
PPG
0.75
100.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
1
History Matches
4
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
8.50
Goals for per game
1.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
16.7%
13.00
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
25.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
8.50
Goals for per game
—
100.0%
Scoring rate
—
50.0%
BTTS rate
—
2
History Matches
6
8.50
Goals Mean
1.33
4.50
Goals Std
1.80
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
100.0%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
100.0%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
13.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.50
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.00
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
0.50
Goals against per game
—
50.0%
Conceding rate
—
2
History Matches
6
0.50
Conceded Mean
2.00
0.50
Conceded Std
1.53
0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
66.7%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
50.0%
0.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
2
History Matches
6
0.00
Result entropy
0.63
5.00
Goal Difference Std
2.05
100.0
Stability score
36.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
2
Eligible Matches
6
2
Lead Matches
0
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
—
1.00
Lead Points Retention
—
0
Trailing Matches
4
—
Non-loss rate
25.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
2
Halftime Coverage Matches
6
5.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.33
3.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.33
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
72.85
Rest days
221.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
1
Normal Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
0
Long Rest History Matches
3
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
2
Matches
0
3.00
PPG
—
100.0%
Win rate
—
0.0%
Draw rate
—
0.0%
Loss rate
—
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
5.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
2
Current Competition Matches
0
3.00
Current Competition PPG
—
8.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
—
1
Competition Season Count
2
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
2
Clean History Matches
6
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO13.51
PPG1.50
GF7.17
GA-1.50
PPG2.25
PPG1.80
PPG1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate16.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.50
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate75.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.75
History Matches-4
Goals Mean7.17
Goals Std2.70
Scored 1+ rate50.0%
Scored 2+ rate66.7%
Scored 3+ rate83.3%
Venue Goals Mean12.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean7.17
Recent 10 Goals Std2.70
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-1.50
Conceded Std-1.03
Clean-sheet rate16.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.67
Conceded 3+ rate-0.50
Venue Conceded Mean-2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.03
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.63
Goal Difference Std2.95
Stability score63.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.63
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std2.95
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches2
Trailing Matches-4
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean5.50
First Half Goals Against Mean-1.33
Second Half Goals For Mean1.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Current Competition Matches2
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days-148.2
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches1
Long Rest History Matches-3
Current Team ELO13.51
Current Opponent ELO-13.51
Current ELO Difference27.01
Expected score0.04
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.48
Overperformance3.98
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.48

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

April W

W
Hwacheon KSPO W1–2April W1 Nov · away
Pick: Hwacheon KSPO W 55% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hồ Chí Minh City W

L
Hồ Chí Minh City W1–2East Bengal W1 Nov · home
Pick: East Bengal W 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Match report

April W and Hồ Chí Minh City W finished 6–0 in AFC Women's Champions League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 2–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: April W win 63.9%, draw 17.1%, Hồ Chí Minh City W win 19.0%. All three picks hit.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.