ScoreProb
Log in
FKF Premier League Kenya Round 7 2026

APS Bomet vs Bandari

APS Bomet Home · Elo 1,544
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bandari Away · Elo 1,525
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
APS Bomet win
29.8%
DrawPick
41.1%
Bandari win
29.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.9%
No55.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.534.7%
Under 2.565.3%

How much we know

APS Bomet history52 matches
Bandari history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.1%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why a draw is the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,544 against 1,525. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • APS Bomet score more

    1.15 goals a game over 52 matches for APS Bomet, against 0.88 over 56 for Bandari.

  • Defences are close

    APS Bomet concede 0.83 a game, Bandari 0.84.

  • APS Bomet games more often go over 2.5 goals

    35% of APS Bomet matches, against 25% for Bandari. The model puts this match at 35% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 14 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
APS Bomet
Bandari@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1544.1
ELO
1524.9
52
ELO · Matches
56
1544.1
Current Team ELO
1524.9
1524.9
Current Opponent ELO
1544.1
19.14
Current ELO Difference
-19.14
0.53
Expected score
0.47
52
History Matches
56
0.04
Residual Mean
0.03
53.05
Overperformance
51.91
0.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
0.60
0.40
Goals against per game
0.60
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
1.30
1.30
Goals for per game
1.20
0.20
Goals against per game
1.00
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.47
0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
0.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
56
1.48
PPG
1.34
38.5%
Win rate
30.4%
32.7%
Draw rate
42.9%
28.8%
Loss rate
26.8%
55.8%
Over 1.5 rate
48.2%
34.6%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
13.5%
Over 3.5 rate
16.1%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
27
1.50
PPG
1.07
38.5%
Win rate
18.5%
34.6%
Draw rate
51.9%
26.9%
Loss rate
29.6%
57.7%
Over 1.5 rate
44.4%
26.9%
Over 2.5 rate
25.9%
11.5%
Over 3.5 rate
18.5%
1.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.99
26
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.15
Goals for per game
0.88
63.5%
Scoring rate
51.8%
38.5%
BTTS rate
37.5%
1.12
Goals for per game
0.67
65.4%
Scoring rate
37.0%
38.5%
BTTS rate
33.3%
52
History Matches
56
1.15
Goals Mean
0.88
1.15
Goals Std
1.09
63.5%
Scored 1+ rate
51.8%
34.6%
Scored 2+ rate
23.2%
11.5%
Scored 3+ rate
8.9%
1.12
Venue Goals Mean
0.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.83
Goals against per game
0.84
53.8%
Conceding rate
57.1%
0.81
Goals against per game
0.89
57.7%
Conceding rate
55.6%
52
History Matches
56
0.83
Conceded Mean
0.84
0.99
Conceded Std
0.88
19.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.4%
5.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.4%
0.81
Venue Conceded Mean
0.89
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
36.5%
Failed-to-score rate
48.2%
42.3%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
34.6%
Failed-to-score rate
63.0%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
36.5%
Failed-to-score rate
48.2%
42.3%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
34.6%
Failed-to-score rate
63.0%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
56
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.38
Goal Difference Std
1.12
0.64
Stability score
1.89
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
54
15
Lead Matches
9
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
1.00
10
Trailing Matches
10
30.0%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.37
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.39
0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
167.0
Rest days
153.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
27
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.19
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
23
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.70
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.32
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.50
0.54
Portability PPG Range
1.10
64.97
Portability Score
49.78
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO19.14
PPG0.14
GF0.28
GA-0.01
PPG0.43
PPG1.20
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate3.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.28
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate11.7%
Scored 2+ rate11.4%
Scored 3+ rate2.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.57
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.01
Conceded Std0.11
Clean-sheet rate3.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate0.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.49
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.27
Stability score-1.25
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.44
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.46
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate10.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.23
Portability PPG Range-0.56
Portability Score15.18
Rest days13.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.38
Current Team ELO19.14
Current Opponent ELO-19.14
Current ELO Difference38.27
Expected score0.06
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.35

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

APS Bomet

L
KCB1–0APS Bomet6 Nov · away
Pick: APS Bomet 36% · missed
W
APS Bomet3–03K28 Oct · home
Pick: 3K 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Bandari

L
GOR Mahia1–0Bandari24 Oct · away
Pick: GOR Mahia 55% · hit
D
Bandari1–13K19 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 36% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

APS Bomet and Bandari meet in FKF Premier League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: APS Bomet win 29.8%, draw 41.1%, Bandari win 29.0%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 34.7%. Both teams to score: 44.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.