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FKF Premier League Kenya Round 7 2026

Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar

Nairobi United Home · Elo 1,532
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mara Sugar Away · Elo 1,501
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nairobi United win
Nairobi United winPick
58.0%
Draw
23.1%
Mara Sugar win
18.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.8%
No53.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.9%
Under 2.555.1%

How much we know

Nairobi United history68 matches
Mara Sugar history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.0%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Nairobi United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Nairobi United are rated 31 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,532 against 1,501. On rating alone Nairobi United would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Nairobi United score more

    1.31 goals a game over 68 matches for Nairobi United, against 0.91 over 54 for Mara Sugar.

  • Defences are close

    Nairobi United concede 1.01 a game, Mara Sugar 1.04.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    37% of Nairobi United matches, against 30% for Mara Sugar. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 1 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nairobi United
Mara Sugar@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1531.7
ELO
1500.6
68
ELO · Matches
54
1531.7
Current Team ELO
1500.6
1500.6
Current Opponent ELO
1531.7
31.14
Current ELO Difference
-31.14
0.54
Expected score
0.46
68
History Matches
54
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.01
52.32
Overperformance
49.61
0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
0.60
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.40
1.50
Goals for per game
0.70
1.00
Goals against per game
0.70
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.46
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
68
Matches
54
1.54
PPG
1.17
41.2%
Win rate
24.1%
30.9%
Draw rate
44.4%
27.9%
Loss rate
31.5%
66.2%
Over 1.5 rate
57.4%
36.8%
Over 2.5 rate
29.6%
16.2%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.26
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
29
1.49
PPG
1.07
37.8%
Win rate
20.7%
35.1%
Draw rate
44.8%
27.0%
Loss rate
34.5%
75.7%
Over 1.5 rate
72.4%
45.9%
Over 2.5 rate
37.9%
21.6%
Over 3.5 rate
20.7%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
37
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.31
Goals for per game
0.91
66.2%
Scoring rate
63.0%
44.1%
BTTS rate
46.3%
1.59
Goals for per game
1.00
70.3%
Scoring rate
75.9%
54.1%
BTTS rate
58.6%
68
History Matches
54
1.31
Goals Mean
0.91
1.45
Goals Std
0.91
66.2%
Scored 1+ rate
63.0%
33.8%
Scored 2+ rate
20.4%
14.7%
Scored 3+ rate
5.6%
1.59
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.01
Goals against per game
1.04
67.6%
Conceding rate
64.8%
1.11
Goals against per game
1.38
73.0%
Conceding rate
75.9%
68
History Matches
54
1.01
Conceded Mean
1.04
0.90
Conceded Std
1.05
26.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.1%
7.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.1%
1.11
Venue Conceded Mean
1.38
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.2%
33.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
29.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.2%
33.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
29.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
68
History Matches
54
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.65
Goal Difference Std
1.26
1.29
Stability score
2.87
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
54
22
Lead Matches
8
86.4%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.67
17
Trailing Matches
14
23.5%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.33
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
167.0
Rest days
167.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
46
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.16
18
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.61
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.20
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
3
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.19
1.61
Portability PPG Range
0.42
45.23
Portability Score
72.67
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
68
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO31.14
PPG0.38
GF0.40
GA-0.02
PPG0.42
PPG0.80
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate2.9%
Failed-to-score rate5.6%
History Matches14
Goals Mean0.40
Goals Std0.54
Scored 1+ rate3.2%
Scored 2+ rate13.5%
Scored 3+ rate9.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.83
History Matches14
Conceded Mean-0.02
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate2.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.11
History Matches14
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.39
Stability score-1.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.47
Eligible Matches14
Lead Matches14
Lead Win Rate23.9%
Lead Points Retention0.24
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches14
First Half Goals For Mean0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.42
Portability PPG Range1.19
Portability Score-27.44
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Normal Rest History Matches15
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.34
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.41
Current Team ELO31.14
Current Opponent ELO-31.14
Current ELO Difference62.29
Expected score0.09
History Matches14
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.71
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Nairobi United

L
Murang'a SEAL3–2Nairobi United28 Oct · away
Pick: Nairobi United 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Mara Sugar

W
Mara Sugar2–1Migori Youth7 Nov · home
Pick: Draw 36% · missed
L
Tusker3–1Mara Sugar2 Nov · away
Pick: Tusker 42% · hit
D
Ulinzi Stars0–0Mara Sugar24 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 36% · hit
W
Mara Sugar2–1Mombasa Elite19 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Nairobi United and Mara Sugar meet in FKF Premier League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Nairobi United win 58.0%, draw 23.1%, Mara Sugar win 18.9%. The pick is Nairobi United win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.9%. Both teams to score: 46.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.