ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 Spain Group 2 - 10 2026

Arnedo vs Náxara

Arnedo Home · Elo 1,644
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Náxara Away · Elo 1,531
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Arnedo win
Arnedo winPick
52.6%
Draw
24.6%
Náxara win
22.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.9%
No48.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.5%
Under 2.546.5%

How much we know

Arnedo history57 matches
Náxara history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Arnedo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Arnedo are rated 113 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,644 against 1,531. On rating alone Arnedo would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Arnedo score more

    1.86 goals a game over 57 matches for Arnedo, against 1.62 over 53 for Náxara.

  • Arnedo concede fewer

    Arnedo concede 0.91 a game, Náxara 1.13.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Arnedo matches, against 51% for Náxara. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Arnedo
Náxara
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1643.9
ELO
1531.0
57
ELO · Matches
53
1643.9
Current Team ELO
1531.0
1531.0
Current Opponent ELO
1643.9
112.9
Current ELO Difference
-112.9
0.66
Expected score
0.34
57
History Matches
53
0.12
Residual Mean
0.03
58.83
Overperformance
51.89
0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
0.60
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.40
1.30
Goals for per game
1.50
0.60
Goals against per game
1.40
70.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
0.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.64
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
53
1.89
PPG
1.60
54.4%
Win rate
47.2%
26.3%
Draw rate
18.9%
19.3%
Loss rate
34.0%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
54.4%
Over 2.5 rate
50.9%
24.6%
Over 3.5 rate
32.1%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
27
2.22
PPG
1.59
66.7%
Win rate
48.1%
22.2%
Draw rate
14.8%
11.1%
Loss rate
37.0%
74.1%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
48.1%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
18.5%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
27
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.86
Goals for per game
1.62
80.7%
Scoring rate
77.4%
50.9%
BTTS rate
47.2%
2.04
Goals for per game
1.52
88.9%
Scoring rate
77.8%
44.4%
BTTS rate
55.6%
57
History Matches
53
1.86
Goals Mean
1.62
1.59
Goals Std
1.43
80.7%
Scored 1+ rate
77.4%
50.9%
Scored 2+ rate
43.4%
28.1%
Scored 3+ rate
22.6%
2.04
Venue Goals Mean
1.52
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.91
Goals against per game
1.13
61.4%
Conceding rate
64.2%
0.70
Goals against per game
1.26
51.9%
Conceding rate
70.4%
57
History Matches
53
0.91
Conceded Mean
1.13
0.90
Conceded Std
1.15
24.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.2%
3.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.2%
0.70
Venue Conceded Mean
1.26
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
38.6%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
19.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
48.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
38.6%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
19.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
48.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
38.6%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
53
0.91
Result entropy
0.94
1.95
Goal Difference Std
2.07
8.97
Stability score
5.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
53
24
Lead Matches
21
79.2%
Lead Win Rate
81.0%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.84
8
Trailing Matches
11
12.5%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.84
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
1.02
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
140.9
Rest days
85.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
32
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.88
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
24
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.96
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.34
Portability PPG Std
0.68
0.69
Portability PPG Range
1.36
59.20
Portability Score
42.43
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO112.9
PPG0.29
GF0.24
GA-0.22
PPG0.63
PPG0.20
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate2.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate18.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.24
Goals Std0.16
Scored 1+ rate3.3%
Scored 2+ rate7.5%
Scored 3+ rate5.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.30
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.22
Conceded Std-0.25
Clean-sheet rate2.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.56
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.36
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score3.26
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.86
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.33
Portability PPG Range-0.67
Portability Score16.77
Rest days55.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.31
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.36
Current Team ELO112.9
Current Opponent ELO-112.9
Current ELO Difference225.9
Expected score0.31
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.94
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Arnedo

L
Barcelona B2–1Arnedo31 Oct · away
Pick: Arnedo 47% · missed
D
Arnedo1–1Calamocha24 Oct · home
Pick: Arnedo 50% · missed
D
Arnedo2–2Tudelano18 Oct · home
Pick: Arnedo 62% · missed
L
Arnedo1–2Ebro4 Oct · home
Pick: Arnedo 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Náxara

D
Náxara1–1Utebo31 Oct · home
Pick: Náxara 37% · missed
L
Girona II3–0Náxara25 Oct · away
Pick: Náxara 37% · missed
D
SD Logroñés1–1Náxara18 Oct · away
Pick: SD Logroñés 35% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Arnedo and Náxara meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Arnedo win 52.6%, draw 24.6%, Náxara win 22.9%. The pick is Arnedo win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.5%. Both teams to score: 51.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.