ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 Spain Group 2 - 10 2026

Espanyol II vs Barbastro

Espanyol II Home · Elo 1,541
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Barbastro Away · Elo 1,534
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Espanyol II win
Espanyol II winPick
43.1%
Draw
28.0%
Barbastro win
28.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.6%
No52.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.6%
Under 2.556.4%

How much we know

Espanyol II history58 matches
Barbastro history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Espanyol II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,541 against 1,534. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Espanyol II score more

    1.26 goals a game over 58 matches for Espanyol II, against 1.02 over 55 for Barbastro.

  • Barbastro concede fewer

    Espanyol II concede 1.07 a game, Barbastro 0.95.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    41% of Espanyol II matches, against 36% for Barbastro. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Espanyol II
Barbastro
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1541.2
ELO
1534.1
58
ELO · Matches
55
1541.2
Current Team ELO
1534.1
1534.1
Current Opponent ELO
1541.2
7.04
Current ELO Difference
-7.04
0.51
Expected score
0.49
58
History Matches
55
0.04
Residual Mean
0.03
52.83
Overperformance
51.99
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.90
1.10
Goals for per game
1.20
1.30
Goals against per game
0.70
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.42
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.46
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.12
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
55
1.43
PPG
1.35
34.5%
Win rate
34.5%
39.7%
Draw rate
30.9%
25.9%
Loss rate
34.5%
63.8%
Over 1.5 rate
58.2%
41.4%
Over 2.5 rate
36.4%
22.4%
Over 3.5 rate
10.9%
1.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.19
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
29
1.63
PPG
1.24
43.3%
Win rate
31.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
31.0%
23.3%
Loss rate
37.9%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
48.3%
46.7%
Over 2.5 rate
31.0%
23.3%
Over 3.5 rate
10.3%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
30
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.26
Goals for per game
1.02
70.7%
Scoring rate
61.8%
55.2%
BTTS rate
43.6%
1.47
Goals for per game
0.90
76.7%
Scoring rate
58.6%
60.0%
BTTS rate
41.4%
58
History Matches
55
1.26
Goals Mean
1.02
1.20
Goals Std
1.00
70.7%
Scored 1+ rate
61.8%
31.0%
Scored 2+ rate
29.1%
15.5%
Scored 3+ rate
10.9%
1.47
Venue Goals Mean
0.90
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.07
Goals against per game
0.95
65.5%
Conceding rate
65.5%
1.10
Goals against per game
0.93
70.0%
Conceding rate
69.0%
58
History Matches
55
1.07
Conceded Mean
0.95
1.01
Conceded Std
0.84
29.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.5%
10.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.6%
1.10
Venue Conceded Mean
0.93
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
29.3%
Failed-to-score rate
38.2%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
41.4%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
29.3%
Failed-to-score rate
38.2%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
41.4%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
55
0.99
Result entropy
1.00
1.24
Goal Difference Std
1.19
1.36
Stability score
0.12
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
54
18
Lead Matches
9
72.2%
Lead Win Rate
55.6%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.63
10
Trailing Matches
11
50.0%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.35
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.37
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
78.31
Rest days
77.99
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
35
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.47
22
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.64
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.21
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.35
1.07
Portability PPG Range
0.74
50.58
Portability Score
59.09
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO7.04
PPG0.09
GF0.24
GA0.12
PPG0.39
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.24
Goals Std0.20
Scored 1+ rate8.9%
Scored 2+ rate1.9%
Scored 3+ rate4.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.57
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.03
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate3.9%
Conceded 3+ rate6.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.96
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score1.24
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.66
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate16.7%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate22.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.14
Portability PPG Range0.33
Portability Score-8.51
Rest days0.32
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.15
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.43
Current Team ELO7.04
Current Opponent ELO-7.04
Current ELO Difference14.08
Expected score0.02
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.84
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Espanyol II

W
UD Logroñés II1–3Espanyol II1 Nov · away
Pick: Espanyol II 45% · hit
W
Espanyol II1–0Osasuna II25 Oct · home
Pick: Espanyol II 41% · hit
D
Reddis1–1Espanyol II18 Oct · away
Pick: Reddis 38% · missed
W
Vilassar Mar0–2Espanyol II30 Aug · away
Pick: Espanyol II 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Barbastro

D
Tudelano1–1Barbastro24 Oct · away
Pick: Barbastro 36% · missed
D
Barbastro0–0Manresa18 Oct · home
Pick: Manresa 35% · missed
D
Barbastro1–1Utebo4 Oct · home
Pick: Utebo 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Espanyol II and Barbastro meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Espanyol II win 43.1%, draw 28.0%, Barbastro win 28.9%. The pick is Espanyol II win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.6%. Both teams to score: 47.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.