ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 Spain Group 2 - 10 2026

Tudelano vs Ebro

Tudelano Home · Elo 1,551
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ebro Away · Elo 1,546
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tudelano win
Tudelano winPick
36.4%
Draw
28.7%
Ebro win
34.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.9%
No48.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.5%
Under 2.550.5%

How much we know

Tudelano history52 matches
Ebro history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Tudelano are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,551 against 1,546. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.48 goals a game over 52 matches for Tudelano, against 1.42 over 53 for Ebro.

  • Ebro concede fewer

    Tudelano concede 1.15 a game, Ebro 0.98.

  • Tudelano games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of Tudelano matches, against 38% for Ebro. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tudelano
Ebro
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1551.2
ELO
1545.6
52
ELO · Matches
53
1551.2
Current Team ELO
1545.6
1545.6
Current Opponent ELO
1551.2
5.62
Current ELO Difference
-5.62
0.51
Expected score
0.49
52
History Matches
53
0.05
Residual Mean
0.04
53.55
Overperformance
52.88
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
0.60
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.18
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.12
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.75
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
53
1.52
PPG
1.53
42.3%
Win rate
37.7%
25.0%
Draw rate
39.6%
32.7%
Loss rate
22.6%
71.2%
Over 1.5 rate
71.7%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
37.7%
30.8%
Over 3.5 rate
22.6%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
27
1.50
PPG
1.33
42.3%
Win rate
33.3%
23.1%
Draw rate
33.3%
34.6%
Loss rate
33.3%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
63.0%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
23.1%
Over 3.5 rate
14.8%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
26
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.48
Goals for per game
1.42
80.8%
Scoring rate
75.5%
61.5%
BTTS rate
54.7%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.15
84.6%
Scoring rate
63.0%
65.4%
BTTS rate
40.7%
52
History Matches
53
1.48
Goals Mean
1.42
1.18
Goals Std
1.29
80.8%
Scored 1+ rate
75.5%
40.4%
Scored 2+ rate
32.1%
19.2%
Scored 3+ rate
20.8%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.15
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.15
Goals against per game
0.98
73.1%
Conceding rate
69.8%
1.12
Goals against per game
0.93
76.9%
Conceding rate
66.7%
52
History Matches
53
1.15
Conceded Mean
0.98
0.97
Conceded Std
0.98
30.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
17.0%
9.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.7%
1.12
Venue Conceded Mean
0.93
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
30.2%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
24.5%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
30.2%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
24.5%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
30.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
53
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
1.49
Goal Difference Std
1.64
2.06
Stability score
2.52
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
53
15
Lead Matches
23
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
69.6%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.77
15
Trailing Matches
9
33.3%
Non-loss rate
55.6%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.32
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
176.0
Rest days
85.33
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
34
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.59
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.47
17
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.55
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.25
0.41
Portability PPG Range
0.50
70.93
Portability Score
66.83
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO5.62
PPG-0.01
GF0.07
GA0.17
PPG0.17
PPG0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.07
Goals Std-0.11
Scored 1+ rate5.3%
Scored 2+ rate8.3%
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.20
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.17
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate13.8%
Conceded 3+ rate4.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.22
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.15
Stability score-0.47
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.50
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate17.1%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.22
Trailing Win Rate2.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.04
Portability PPG Range-0.09
Portability Score4.10
Rest days90.67
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.12
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Current Team ELO5.62
Current Opponent ELO-5.62
Current ELO Difference11.23
Expected score0.02
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.67
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tudelano

L
Osasuna II2–0Tudelano1 Nov · away
Pick: Osasuna II 41% · hit
L
Tudelano0–4Zaragoza27 Oct · home
Pick: Zaragoza 46% · hit
D
Tudelano1–1Barbastro24 Oct · home
Pick: Barbastro 36% · missed
D
Arnedo2–2Tudelano18 Oct · away
Pick: Arnedo 62% · missed
L
Tudelano1–2Barcelona B4 Oct · home
Pick: Tudelano 39% · missed

Ebro

D
Ebro2–2SD Logroñés31 Oct · home
Pick: Ebro 40% · missed
L
Manresa3–2Ebro24 Oct · away
Pick: Manresa 38% · hit
L
Ebro0–1Girona II17 Oct · home
Pick: Ebro 42% · missed
W
Arnedo1–2Ebro4 Oct · away
Pick: Arnedo 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Tudelano and Ebro meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Tudelano win 36.4%, draw 28.7%, Ebro win 34.9%. The pick is Tudelano win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.5%. Both teams to score: 51.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.