ScoreProb
Serie A Italy Round 11 2026

AS Roma vs Sassuolo

AS Roma Home · Elo 1,646
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sassuolo Away · Elo 1,512
Stadio Olimpico, Rome Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: AS Roma win
AS Roma winPick
69.9%
Draw
16.8%
Sassuolo win
13.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.8%
No54.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.4%
Under 2.546.6%

How much we know

AS Roma history82 matches
Sassuolo history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (69.9%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why AS Roma are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • AS Roma are rated 134 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,646 against 1,512. On rating alone AS Roma would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • AS Roma score more

    1.60 goals a game over 82 matches for AS Roma, against 1.39 over 64 for Sassuolo.

  • AS Roma concede fewer

    AS Roma concede 0.96 a game, Sassuolo 1.20.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    44% of AS Roma matches, against 52% for Sassuolo. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
AS Roma
Sassuolo
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1645.7
ELO
1512.1
82
ELO · Matches
64
1645.7
Current Team ELO
1512.1
1512.1
Current Opponent ELO
1645.7
133.6
Current ELO Difference
-133.6
0.68
Expected score
0.32
82
History Matches
64
0.08
Residual Mean
0.01
56.22
Overperformance
50.88
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.00
2.50
Goals for per game
1.60
1.50
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
82
Matches
64
1.95
PPG
1.47
59.8%
Win rate
42.2%
15.9%
Draw rate
20.3%
24.4%
Loss rate
37.5%
70.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
43.9%
Over 2.5 rate
51.6%
24.4%
Over 3.5 rate
21.9%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
31
2.19
PPG
1.16
67.6%
Win rate
29.0%
16.2%
Draw rate
29.0%
16.2%
Loss rate
41.9%
73.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
43.2%
Over 2.5 rate
54.8%
24.3%
Over 3.5 rate
19.4%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
37
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.60
Goals for per game
1.39
87.8%
Scoring rate
71.9%
43.9%
BTTS rate
48.4%
1.84
Goals for per game
1.26
89.2%
Scoring rate
71.0%
40.5%
BTTS rate
58.1%
4.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
82
History Matches
64
1.60
Goals Mean
1.39
1.02
Goals Std
1.18
87.8%
Scored 1+ rate
71.9%
48.8%
Scored 2+ rate
43.8%
18.3%
Scored 3+ rate
18.8%
1.84
Venue Goals Mean
1.26
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.96
Goals against per game
1.20
56.1%
Conceding rate
68.8%
0.73
Goals against per game
1.32
51.4%
Conceding rate
74.2%
0.00
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
82
History Matches
64
0.96
Conceded Mean
1.20
1.14
Conceded Std
1.19
23.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.3%
12.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
0.73
Venue Conceded Mean
1.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
43.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
12.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
48.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
10.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
43.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
12.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
48.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
10.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
43.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
82
History Matches
64
0.86
Result entropy
0.96
1.60
Goal Difference Std
1.78
14.09
Stability score
3.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
82
Eligible Matches
64
36
Lead Matches
22
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
1.00
19
Trailing Matches
21
26.3%
Non-loss rate
19.0%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
9.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
82
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.04
Rest days
76.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.42
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
51
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.84
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
18
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.89
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.52
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
4.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
9
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.38
1.47
Portability PPG Range
1.00
52.00
Portability Score
56.95
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
82
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO133.6
PPG0.48
GF0.21
GA-0.24
PPG3.00
PPG1.03
PPG0.60
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches18
Clean-sheet rate12.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate22.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches18
Goals Mean0.21
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate15.9%
Scored 2+ rate5.0%
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean0.58
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.08
History Matches18
Conceded Mean-0.24
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate12.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.59
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.08
History Matches18
Result entropy-0.10
Goal Difference Std-0.18
Stability score10.18
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.51
Eligible Matches18
Lead Matches14
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate7.3%
Trailing Win Rate1.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches18
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean5.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.08
Portability PPG Range0.47
Portability Score-4.95
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches10
Short Rest Points Per Match1.92
Normal Rest History Matches19
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.41
Long Rest History Matches-11
Long Rest Points Per Match0.37
Current Team ELO133.6
Current Opponent ELO-133.6
Current ELO Difference267.2
Expected score0.37
History Matches18
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

AS Roma

L
Manchester United3–2AS Roma3 Nov · away
Pick: AS Roma 41% · missed
W
Udinese2–5AS Roma31 Oct · away
Pick: AS Roma 52% · hit
W
AS Roma4–2Cagliari27 Oct · home
Pick: AS Roma 57% · hit
D
Napoli3–3AS Roma24 Oct · away
Pick: AS Roma 39% · missed
W
AS Roma4–0Slovan Bratislava20 Oct · home
Pick: Slovan Bratislava 50% · missed

Sassuolo

L
Sassuolo2–4Fiorentina2 Nov · home
Pick: Sassuolo 47% · missed
L
Sassuolo2–6Lazio27 Oct · home
Pick: Lazio 41% · hit
L
Como2–0Sassuolo24 Oct · away
Pick: Como 59% · hit
L
Frosinone4–2Sassuolo16 Oct · away
Pick: Frosinone 48% · hit
W
Sassuolo2–1Torino29 Aug · home
Pick: Sassuolo 38% · hit

About this match

AS Roma and Sassuolo meet in Serie A on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Olimpico, Rome. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: AS Roma win 69.9%, draw 16.8%, Sassuolo win 13.4%. The pick is AS Roma win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.4%. Both teams to score: 45.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.