ScoreProb
Serie A Italy Round 11 2026

Torino vs Lecce

Torino Home · Elo 1,507
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lecce Away · Elo 1,502
Stadio Olimpico di Torino, Turin Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Torino win
Torino winPick
39.1%
Draw
27.7%
Lecce win
33.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.6%
No52.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.1%
Under 2.554.9%

How much we know

Torino history67 matches
Lecce history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Torino are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,507 against 1,502. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Torino score more

    1.13 goals a game over 67 matches for Torino, against 0.87 over 67 for Lecce.

  • Lecce concede fewer

    Torino concede 1.42 a game, Lecce 1.27.

  • Torino games more often go over 2.5 goals

    48% of Torino matches, against 37% for Lecce. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Torino
Lecce
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1506.9
ELO
1502.3
67
ELO · Matches
67
1506.9
Current Team ELO
1502.3
1502.3
Current Opponent ELO
1506.9
4.62
Current ELO Difference
-4.62
0.51
Expected score
0.49
67
History Matches
67
0.01
Residual Mean
0.01
50.61
Overperformance
50.47
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.27
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
0.80
Goals for per game
2.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.90
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
1.10
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.63
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
67
1.28
PPG
1.12
34.3%
Win rate
29.9%
25.4%
Draw rate
22.4%
40.3%
Loss rate
47.8%
71.6%
Over 1.5 rate
59.7%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
37.3%
22.4%
Over 3.5 rate
16.4%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
33
1.62
PPG
1.12
47.1%
Win rate
30.3%
20.6%
Draw rate
21.2%
32.4%
Loss rate
48.5%
70.6%
Over 1.5 rate
63.6%
47.1%
Over 2.5 rate
36.4%
20.6%
Over 3.5 rate
18.2%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
34
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.13
Goals for per game
0.87
73.1%
Scoring rate
55.2%
49.3%
BTTS rate
37.3%
1.29
Goals for per game
0.91
82.4%
Scoring rate
60.6%
52.9%
BTTS rate
42.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
67
History Matches
67
1.13
Goals Mean
0.87
0.96
Goals Std
0.99
73.1%
Scored 1+ rate
55.2%
29.9%
Scored 2+ rate
23.9%
7.5%
Scored 3+ rate
4.5%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
0.91
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.42
Goals against per game
1.27
70.1%
Conceding rate
71.6%
1.21
Goals against per game
1.27
67.6%
Conceding rate
72.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
67
History Matches
67
1.42
Conceded Mean
1.27
1.31
Conceded Std
1.07
46.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.8%
14.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.4%
1.21
Venue Conceded Mean
1.27
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.4%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
44.8%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
39.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.4%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
44.8%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
39.4%
29.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
67
0.98
Result entropy
0.95
1.70
Goal Difference Std
1.45
1.58
Stability score
4.53
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
67
18
Lead Matches
17
72.2%
Lead Win Rate
64.7%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.71
23
Trailing Matches
21
26.1%
Non-loss rate
9.5%
4.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.46
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.42
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.80
Rest days
75.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.33
31
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.14
32
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.66
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.23
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.64
1.13
Portability PPG Range
1.51
54.25
Portability Score
43.80
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO4.62
PPG0.16
GF0.27
GA0.15
PPG-3.00
PPG0.50
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate1.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate5.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.27
Goals Std-0.03
Scored 1+ rate17.9%
Scored 2+ rate6.0%
Scored 3+ rate3.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.87
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.15
Conceded Std0.23
Clean-sheet rate1.5%
Conceded 2+ rate7.5%
Conceded 3+ rate1.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.06
History Matches0
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.25
Stability score-2.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.39
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate7.5%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate16.6%
Trailing Win Rate4.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.22
Portability PPG Range-0.38
Portability Score10.45
Rest days-0.09
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.43
Current Team ELO4.62
Current Opponent ELO-4.62
Current ELO Difference9.24
Expected score0.01
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.25

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Torino

L
Frosinone2–0Torino1 Nov · away
Pick: Frosinone 48% · hit
L
Torino1–3Como27 Oct · home
Pick: Como 40% · hit
W
Torino3–2Monza23 Oct · home
Pick: Torino 51% · hit
W
Parma0–3Torino19 Oct · away
Pick: Parma 41% · missed
W
Torino2–1Udinese12 Oct · home
Pick: Torino 37% · hit

Lecce

L
Lecce1–2Genoa1 Nov · home
Pick: Lecce 56% · missed
L
Frosinone5–1Lecce29 Oct · away
Pick: Frosinone 40% · hit
L
Lecce0–2Juventus25 Oct · home
Pick: Lecce 34% · missed
W
Udinese0–3Lecce18 Oct · away
Pick: Udinese 40% · missed
L
Lecce0–4AS Roma31 Aug · home
Pick: AS Roma 53% · hit

About this match

Torino and Lecce meet in Serie A on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Olimpico di Torino, Turin. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Torino win 39.1%, draw 27.7%, Lecce win 33.2%. The pick is Torino win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.1%. Both teams to score: 47.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.