ASA Aarhus vs Holbæk B&I
Match result probability Model pick: Holbæk B&I win
ASA Aarhus win
22.6%
Draw
19.4%
Holbæk B&I winPick
58.0%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes61.1%
No38.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.563.9%
Under 2.536.1%
How much we know
ASA Aarhus history33 matches
Holbæk B&I history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Holbæk B&I
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 13:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 14:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.0%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Holbæk B&I are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Holbæk B&I are rated 54 Elo points higher
Elo 1,627 against 1,573. On rating alone Holbæk B&I would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.
-
Holbæk B&I score more
1.88 goals a game over 33 matches for ASA Aarhus, against 2.26 over 65 for Holbæk B&I.
-
Defences are close
ASA Aarhus concede 1.15 a game, Holbæk B&I 1.28.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
58% of ASA Aarhus matches, against 63% for Holbæk B&I. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Holbæk B&I@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1573.3
ELO
1627.0
33
ELO · Matches
65
1573.3
Current Team ELO
1627.0
1627.0
Current Opponent ELO
1573.3
-53.66
Current ELO Difference
53.66
0.42
Expected score
0.58
33
History Matches
65
0.11
Residual Mean
0.10
56.98
Overperformance
57.38
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.20
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
0.80
Goals for per game
2.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
2.50
1.30
Goals for per game
2.50
1.10
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
80.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.54
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals 90
33
Matches
65
1.91
PPG
1.86
54.5%
Win rate
53.8%
27.3%
Draw rate
24.6%
18.2%
Loss rate
21.5%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
86.2%
57.6%
Over 2.5 rate
63.1%
39.4%
Over 3.5 rate
49.2%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
Venue performance10 signals 100
17
Matches
32
2.12
PPG
1.81
64.7%
Win rate
53.1%
17.6%
Draw rate
21.9%
17.6%
Loss rate
25.0%
94.1%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
76.5%
Over 2.5 rate
53.1%
52.9%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
17
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.88
Goals for per game
2.26
87.9%
Scoring rate
86.2%
54.5%
BTTS rate
63.1%
2.41
Goals for per game
2.09
94.1%
Scoring rate
81.3%
70.6%
BTTS rate
59.4%
1.25
Goals for per game
2.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
33
History Matches
65
1.88
Goals Mean
2.26
1.32
Goals Std
1.66
87.9%
Scored 1+ rate
86.2%
51.5%
Scored 2+ rate
67.7%
30.3%
Scored 3+ rate
33.8%
2.41
Venue Goals Mean
2.09
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.15
Goals against per game
1.28
63.6%
Conceding rate
72.3%
1.24
Goals against per game
1.22
76.5%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
33
History Matches
65
1.15
Conceded Mean
1.28
1.13
Conceded Std
1.14
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.4%
15.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.8%
1.24
Venue Conceded Mean
1.22
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.7%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
13.8%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
5.9%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.7%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
13.8%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
5.9%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
33
History Matches
65
0.91
Result entropy
0.92
1.81
Goal Difference Std
2.01
9.44
Stability score
8.15
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
33
Eligible Matches
63
9
Lead Matches
28
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.89
7
Trailing Matches
15
57.1%
Non-loss rate
46.7%
28.6%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
33
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
1.15
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.27
0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.08
Rest days
84.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
13
Normal Rest History Matches
38
2.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.03
18
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.83
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.70
Competition & season17 signals 170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
2.50
50.0%
Win rate
75.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.09
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
2.50
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.25
6
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.22
Portability PPG Std
0.29
0.50
Portability PPG Range
0.94
69.54
Portability Score
63.47
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
33
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-53.66
PPG0.05
GF-0.38
GA-0.13
PPG-0.75
PPG0.31
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-32
Clean-sheet rate8.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-32
Goals Mean-0.38
Goals Std-0.34
Scored 1+ rate1.7%
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.32
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.10
History Matches-32
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate8.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate1.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.76
History Matches-32
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.20
Stability score1.29
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.53
Eligible Matches-30
Lead Matches-19
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate10.5%
Trailing Win Rate28.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches-30
First Half Goals For Mean-0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.25
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.44
Portability Score6.07
Rest days-0.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.33
Normal Rest History Matches-25
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.05
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.14
Current Team ELO-53.66
Current Opponent ELO53.66
Current ELO Difference-107.3
Expected score-0.15
History Matches-32
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance-0.39
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
ASA Aarhus
L
Næsby5–1ASA Aarhus7 Nov · away
Pick: Næsby 57% · hit D
ASA Aarhus2–2Frem31 Oct · home
Pick: ASA Aarhus 45% · missed L
Vanløse1–0ASA Aarhus24 Oct · away
Pick: Vanløse 58% · hit L
ASA Aarhus1–2Sundby17 Oct · home
Pick: ASA Aarhus 50% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Holbæk B&I
L
Holbæk B&I1–2Brønshøj6 Nov · home
Pick: Holbæk B&I 58% · missed L
Holbæk B&I0–1Vanløse31 Oct · home
Pick: Holbæk B&I 49% · missed W
Næsby1–2Holbæk B&I24 Oct · away
Pick: Holbæk B&I 43% · hit W
Holbæk B&I4–0Holstebro17 Oct · home
Pick: Holbæk B&I 54% · hit W
Holbæk B&I3–2Næsby29 Aug · home
Pick: Holbæk B&I 59% · hit About this match
ASA Aarhus and Holbæk B&I meet in 3. Division on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: ASA Aarhus win 22.6%, draw 19.4%, Holbæk B&I win 58.0%. The pick is Holbæk B&I win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.9%. Both teams to score: 61.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.