ASPAC vs Panthères
Match result probability Model pick: ASPAC win
ASPAC winPick
60.6%
Draw
24.4%
Panthères win
15.0%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes42.4%
No57.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.540.6%
Under 2.559.4%
How much we know
ASPAC history38 matches
Panthères history15 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours ASPAC
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.6%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.
Why ASPAC are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
ASPAC are rated 90 Elo points higher
Elo 1,591 against 1,501. On rating alone ASPAC would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.
-
ASPAC score far more
1.45 goals a game over 38 matches for ASPAC, against 0.80 over 15 for Panthères.
-
ASPAC concede fewer
ASPAC concede 0.76 a game, Panthères 1.07.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
32% of ASPAC matches, against 33% for Panthères. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 20 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Panthères@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1590.7
ELO
1500.9
38
ELO · Matches
15
1590.7
Current Team ELO
1500.9
1500.9
Current Opponent ELO
1590.7
89.82
Current ELO Difference
-89.82
0.63
Expected score
0.37
38
History Matches
15
0.11
Residual Mean
0.01
57.41
Overperformance
50.41
0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.60
1.80
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.30
1.60
Goals for per game
0.60
0.40
Goals against per game
0.90
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.49
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.27
Overall performance9 signals 90
38
Matches
15
1.79
PPG
1.33
50.0%
Win rate
33.3%
28.9%
Draw rate
33.3%
21.1%
Loss rate
33.3%
63.2%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
31.6%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
21.1%
Over 3.5 rate
13.3%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
Venue performance10 signals 100
18
Matches
7
1.94
PPG
1.00
55.6%
Win rate
28.6%
27.8%
Draw rate
14.3%
16.7%
Loss rate
57.1%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
38.9%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
18
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.45
Goals for per game
0.80
78.9%
Scoring rate
60.0%
44.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.57
88.9%
Scoring rate
42.9%
61.1%
BTTS rate
14.3%
38
History Matches
15
1.45
Goals Mean
0.80
1.27
Goals Std
0.83
78.9%
Scored 1+ rate
60.0%
34.2%
Scored 2+ rate
13.3%
18.4%
Scored 3+ rate
6.7%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.57
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.76
Goals against per game
1.07
57.9%
Conceding rate
53.3%
0.89
Goals against per game
1.57
72.2%
Conceding rate
57.1%
38
History Matches
15
0.76
Conceded Mean
1.07
0.78
Conceded Std
1.18
15.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
2.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
0.89
Venue Conceded Mean
1.57
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
42.1%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
57.1%
42.1%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
57.1%
42.1%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
38
History Matches
15
0.94
Result entropy
1.00
1.49
Goal Difference Std
1.57
5.93
Stability score
0.00
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
21
Eligible Matches
3
10
Lead Matches
0
90.0%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.93
Lead Points Retention
—
2
Trailing Matches
0
0.0%
Non-loss rate
—
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals 50
21
Halftime Coverage Matches
3
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
147.0
Rest days
524.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
19
Normal Rest History Matches
8
1.47
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.75
17
Long Rest History Matches
6
2.18
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.34
Portability PPG Std
—
0.68
Portability PPG Range
—
59.36
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
38
Clean History Matches
15
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO89.82
PPG0.46
GF0.65
GA-0.30
PPG0.94
PPG0.40
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches23
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate-0.46
History Matches23
Goals Mean0.65
Goals Std0.44
Scored 1+ rate18.9%
Scored 2+ rate20.9%
Scored 3+ rate11.8%
Venue Goals Mean1.43
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.87
History Matches23
Conceded Mean-0.30
Conceded Std-0.41
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate-0.18
Conceded 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Conceded Mean-0.68
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.73
History Matches23
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.08
Stability score5.93
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.13
Eligible Matches18
Lead Matches10
Trailing Matches2
Halftime Coverage Matches18
First Half Goals For Mean0.86
First Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-377.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Long Rest History Matches11
Long Rest Points Per Match1.18
Current Team ELO89.82
Current Opponent ELO-89.82
Current ELO Difference179.6
Expected score0.25
History Matches23
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance7.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.22
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
ASPAC
W
ASPAC2–1Loto Popo31 Oct · home
Pick: ASPAC 39% · hit D
Dragons0–0ASPAC24 Oct · away
Pick: ASPAC 42% · missed W
ASPAC1–0Hodio17 Oct · home
Pick: ASPAC 43% · hit W
ASPAC2–0Djeffa4 Oct · home
Pick: ASPAC 64% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Panthères
L
Coton Sport Ouidah2–1Panthères31 Oct · away
Pick: Coton Sport Ouidah 56% · hit D
Panthères1–1Loto Popo24 Oct · home
Pick: Loto Popo 38% · missed D
AS Sobemap0–0Panthères18 Oct · away
Pick: AS Sobemap 55% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
ASPAC and Panthères meet in Championnat National on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: ASPAC win 60.6%, draw 24.4%, Panthères win 15.0%. The pick is ASPAC win. Over 2.5 goals: 40.6%. Both teams to score: 42.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.