Espoir Savalou vs Dragons
Match result probability Model pick: Espoir Savalou win
Espoir Savalou winPick
48.4%
Draw
28.9%
Dragons win
22.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes46.7%
No53.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.539.8%
Under 2.560.2%
How much we know
Espoir Savalou history41 matches
Dragons history36 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Espoir Savalou
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.4%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Espoir Savalou are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Espoir Savalou are rated 84 Elo points higher
Elo 1,561 against 1,477. On rating alone Espoir Savalou would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.05 goals a game over 41 matches for Espoir Savalou, against 1.00 over 36 for Dragons.
-
Espoir Savalou concede fewer
Espoir Savalou concede 0.83 a game, Dragons 1.36.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
29% of Espoir Savalou matches, against 36% for Dragons. The model puts this match at 40% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 20 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dragons@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1560.8
ELO
1476.8
41
ELO · Matches
36
1560.8
Current Team ELO
1476.8
1476.8
Current Opponent ELO
1560.8
84.02
Current ELO Difference
-84.02
0.62
Expected score
0.38
41
History Matches
36
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.05
54.47
Overperformance
46.69
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.20
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
0.60
1.40
Goals for per game
0.70
1.10
Goals against per game
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.46
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.81
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
0.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.98
Overall performance9 signals 90
41
Matches
36
1.61
PPG
1.11
41.5%
Win rate
27.8%
36.6%
Draw rate
27.8%
22.0%
Loss rate
44.4%
56.1%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
29.3%
Over 2.5 rate
36.1%
12.2%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.27
Venue performance10 signals 100
19
Matches
22
2.05
PPG
0.86
63.2%
Win rate
18.2%
15.8%
Draw rate
31.8%
21.1%
Loss rate
50.0%
63.2%
Over 1.5 rate
68.2%
42.1%
Over 2.5 rate
36.4%
15.8%
Over 3.5 rate
9.1%
1.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.03
19
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.05
Goals for per game
1.00
68.3%
Scoring rate
69.4%
39.0%
BTTS rate
55.6%
1.32
Goals for per game
0.82
84.2%
Scoring rate
72.7%
47.4%
BTTS rate
63.6%
41
History Matches
36
1.05
Goals Mean
1.00
0.94
Goals Std
0.91
68.3%
Scored 1+ rate
69.4%
26.8%
Scored 2+ rate
19.4%
9.8%
Scored 3+ rate
11.1%
1.32
Venue Goals Mean
0.82
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.83
Goals against per game
1.36
53.7%
Conceding rate
83.3%
0.89
Goals against per game
1.32
57.9%
Conceding rate
86.4%
41
History Matches
36
0.83
Conceded Mean
1.36
0.93
Conceded Std
0.95
22.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.9%
7.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.1%
0.89
Venue Conceded Mean
1.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
46.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
31.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
42.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
46.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
31.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
42.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
46.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
41
History Matches
36
0.97
Result entropy
0.98
1.22
Goal Difference Std
1.27
2.99
Stability score
2.42
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
22
Eligible Matches
16
5
Lead Matches
3
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
1.00
6
Trailing Matches
5
16.7%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
22
Halftime Coverage Matches
16
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
0.41
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.36
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
147.0
Rest days
147.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
21
Normal Rest History Matches
16
1.62
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.19
19
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.63
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.95
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.17
Portability PPG Std
0.41
0.33
Portability PPG Range
0.82
75.05
Portability Score
55.08
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
41
Clean History Matches
36
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO84.02
PPG0.50
GF0.05
GA-0.53
PPG1.19
PPG0.40
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate29.7%
Failed-to-score rate1.2%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate28.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.05
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate7.4%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.34
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.53
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate29.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.42
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.14
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score0.57
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.08
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.40
Lead Points Retention-0.27
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate16.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.45
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.24
Portability PPG Range-0.48
Portability Score19.96
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.43
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.68
Current Team ELO84.02
Current Opponent ELO-84.02
Current ELO Difference168.0
Expected score0.24
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.12
Overperformance7.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.24
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Espoir Savalou
D
Espoir Savalou1–1Cavaliers1 Nov · home
Pick: Espoir Savalou 37% · missed L
Bani Gansè4–1Espoir Savalou24 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 38% · missed D
Espoir Savalou1–1Buffles17 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 39% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Dragons
L
Dragons0–1Hodio1 Nov · home
Pick: Hodio 37% · hit D
Dragons0–0ASPAC24 Oct · home
Pick: ASPAC 42% · missed L
Kraké2–0Dragons18 Oct · away
Pick: Kraké 38% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Espoir Savalou and Dragons meet in Championnat National on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Espoir Savalou win 48.4%, draw 28.9%, Dragons win 22.7%. The pick is Espoir Savalou win. Over 2.5 goals: 39.8%. Both teams to score: 46.7%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.