ScoreProb
Super League 1 Greece Round 10 2026

Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata

Asteras Tripolis Home · Elo 1,453
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kalamata Away · Elo 1,674
Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Tripoli Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kalamata win
Asteras Tripolis win
30.3%
Draw
27.7%
Kalamata winPick
42.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.9%
No52.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.2%
Under 2.545.8%

How much we know

Asteras Tripolis history60 matches
Kalamata history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Kalamata are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kalamata are rated 221 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,674 against 1,453. On rating alone Kalamata would be expected to take 78% of the points on offer.

  • Kalamata score far more

    0.97 goals a game over 60 matches for Asteras Tripolis, against 2.00 over 39 for Kalamata.

  • Kalamata concede fewer

    Asteras Tripolis concede 1.40 a game, Kalamata 0.59.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    43% of Asteras Tripolis matches, against 41% for Kalamata. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Asteras Tripolis
Kalamata
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1453.4
ELO
1674.1
60
ELO · Matches
39
1453.4
Current Team ELO
1674.1
1674.1
Current Opponent ELO
1453.4
-220.7
Current ELO Difference
220.7
0.22
Expected score
0.78
60
History Matches
39
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.23
46.58
Overperformance
65.01
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.00
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
2.20
1.10
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
0.70
30.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.22
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.45
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
39
0.95
PPG
2.49
21.7%
Win rate
79.5%
30.0%
Draw rate
10.3%
48.3%
Loss rate
10.3%
71.7%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
43.3%
Over 2.5 rate
41.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
18
1.22
PPG
2.67
33.3%
Win rate
83.3%
22.2%
Draw rate
16.7%
44.4%
Loss rate
0.0%
74.1%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
59.3%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.9%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.95
27
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.97
Goals for per game
2.00
61.7%
Scoring rate
89.7%
48.3%
BTTS rate
38.5%
1.37
Goals for per game
1.89
70.4%
Scoring rate
88.9%
51.9%
BTTS rate
44.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
60
History Matches
39
0.97
Goals Mean
2.00
1.06
Goals Std
1.24
61.7%
Scored 1+ rate
89.7%
21.7%
Scored 2+ rate
66.7%
8.3%
Scored 3+ rate
25.6%
1.37
Venue Goals Mean
1.89
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.40
Goals against per game
0.59
75.0%
Conceding rate
43.6%
1.41
Goals against per game
0.50
77.8%
Conceding rate
44.4%
3.00
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
60
History Matches
39
1.40
Conceded Mean
0.59
1.11
Conceded Std
0.78
45.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
12.8%
15.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.6%
1.41
Venue Conceded Mean
0.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
56.4%
38.3%
Failed-to-score rate
10.3%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
55.6%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
56.4%
38.3%
Failed-to-score rate
10.3%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
55.6%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
56.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
39
0.95
Result entropy
0.59
1.56
Goal Difference Std
1.37
4.97
Stability score
40.87
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
39
14
Lead Matches
25
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
92.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.93
24
Trailing Matches
0
8.3%
Non-loss rate
—
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.15
0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.85
Rest days
77.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.60
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
34
Normal Rest History Matches
16
0.91
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.56
20
Long Rest History Matches
22
0.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.41
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
8
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.12
Portability PPG Std
0.07
0.28
Portability PPG Range
0.14
80.79
Portability Score
87.72
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-220.7
PPG-1.54
GF-1.03
GA0.81
PPG0.00
PPG-1.44
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches21
Clean-sheet rate-0.31
Failed-to-score rate28.1%
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate-0.33
Failed-to-score rate18.5%
History Matches21
Goals Mean-1.03
Goals Std-0.18
Scored 1+ rate-0.28
Scored 2+ rate-0.45
Scored 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Goals Mean-0.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.06
History Matches21
Conceded Mean0.81
Conceded Std0.34
Clean-sheet rate-0.31
Conceded 2+ rate32.2%
Conceded 3+ rate12.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.91
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.12
History Matches21
Result entropy0.36
Goal Difference Std0.19
Stability score-35.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.23
Eligible Matches21
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate-0.42
Lead Points Retention-0.27
Trailing Matches24
Halftime Coverage Matches21
First Half Goals For Mean-0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.14
Portability Score-6.93
Rest days-1.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest History Matches18
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.65
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.66
Current Team ELO-220.7
Current Opponent ELO220.7
Current ELO Difference-441.4
Expected score-0.56
History Matches21
Residual Mean-0.27
Overperformance-18.43
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Asteras Tripolis

L
PAOK2–1Asteras Tripolis1 Nov · away
Pick: PAOK 73% · hit
L
Asteras Tripolis0–2Kifisia27 Oct · home
Pick: Kifisia 43% · hit
D
Asteras Tripolis0–0Levadiakos24 Oct · home
Pick: Asteras Tripolis 50% · missed
L
Panathinaikos5–1Asteras Tripolis18 Oct · away
Pick: Panathinaikos 61% · hit
L
Asteras Tripolis0–1Olympiakos Piraeus30 Aug · home
Pick: Olympiakos Piraeus 61% · hit

Kalamata

D
Kalamata1–1Iraklis 19082 Nov · home
Pick: Kalamata 60% · missed
W
Nestos Chrisoupolis0–2Kalamata28 Oct · away
Pick: Kalamata 39% · hit
L
Olympiakos Piraeus5–0Kalamata25 Oct · away
Pick: Olympiakos Piraeus 68% · hit
W
Kalamata4–3OFI18 Oct · home
Pick: Kalamata 38% · hit
W
PAOK1–3Kalamata12 Oct · away
Pick: PAOK 69% · missed

About this match

Asteras Tripolis and Kalamata meet in Super League 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Tripoli. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Asteras Tripolis win 30.3%, draw 27.7%, Kalamata win 42.0%. The pick is Kalamata win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.2%. Both teams to score: 47.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.