ScoreProb
Super League 1 Greece Round 10 2026

Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK

Olympiakos Piraeus Home · Elo 1,637
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
PAOK Away · Elo 1,643
Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Piraeus Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: PAOK win
Olympiakos Piraeus win
36.1%
Draw
25.7%
PAOK winPick
38.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.5%
No50.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.7%
Under 2.547.3%

How much we know

Olympiakos Piraeus history86 matches
PAOK history83 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why PAOK are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,637 against 1,643. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • PAOK score more

    1.66 goals a game over 86 matches for Olympiakos Piraeus, against 1.94 over 83 for PAOK.

  • Olympiakos Piraeus concede fewer

    Olympiakos Piraeus concede 0.86 a game, PAOK 1.13.

  • PAOK games more often go over 2.5 goals

    42% of Olympiakos Piraeus matches, against 60% for PAOK. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Olympiakos Piraeus
PAOK
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1637.1
ELO
1643.4
86
ELO · Matches
83
1637.1
Current Team ELO
1643.4
1643.4
Current Opponent ELO
1637.1
-6.38
Current ELO Difference
6.38
0.49
Expected score
0.51
86
History Matches
83
0.07
Residual Mean
0.09
56.03
Overperformance
57.31
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.80
0.80
Goals for per game
2.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.90
1.10
Goals for per game
2.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.60
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
86
Matches
83
1.97
PPG
1.75
58.1%
Win rate
50.6%
22.1%
Draw rate
22.9%
19.8%
Loss rate
26.5%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
80.7%
41.9%
Over 2.5 rate
60.2%
19.8%
Over 3.5 rate
38.6%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
Venue performance10 signals
100
42
Matches
39
2.12
PPG
1.18
61.9%
Win rate
30.8%
26.2%
Draw rate
25.6%
11.9%
Loss rate
43.6%
69.0%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
40.5%
Over 2.5 rate
64.1%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
43.6%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
42
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.66
Goals for per game
1.94
79.1%
Scoring rate
81.9%
39.5%
BTTS rate
51.8%
1.86
Goals for per game
1.67
78.6%
Scoring rate
76.9%
38.1%
BTTS rate
61.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
4.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
86
History Matches
83
1.66
Goals Mean
1.94
1.42
Goals Std
1.49
79.1%
Scored 1+ rate
81.9%
46.5%
Scored 2+ rate
55.4%
23.3%
Scored 3+ rate
33.7%
1.86
Venue Goals Mean
1.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.86
Goals against per game
1.13
51.2%
Conceding rate
60.2%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.72
47.6%
Conceding rate
76.9%
0.00
Goals against per game
0.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
86
History Matches
83
0.86
Conceded Mean
1.13
1.10
Conceded Std
1.16
23.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.9%
7.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.5%
0.67
Venue Conceded Mean
1.72
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
48.8%
Clean-sheet rate
39.8%
20.9%
Failed-to-score rate
18.1%
52.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
48.8%
Clean-sheet rate
39.8%
20.9%
Failed-to-score rate
18.1%
52.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
48.8%
Clean-sheet rate
39.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
86
History Matches
83
0.88
Result entropy
0.94
1.88
Goal Difference Std
1.98
11.77
Stability score
5.87
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
86
Eligible Matches
83
36
Lead Matches
31
86.1%
Lead Win Rate
80.6%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.85
13
Trailing Matches
15
15.4%
Non-loss rate
13.3%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
86
Halftime Coverage Matches
83
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.92
0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.92
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.02
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.02
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
18
Short Rest History Matches
14
2.22
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.86
47
Normal Rest History Matches
47
1.83
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.68
20
Long Rest History Matches
21
2.10
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.76
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
4.00
11
Competition Season Count
9
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.67
1.29
Portability PPG Range
2.25
51.52
Portability Score
42.91
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
86
Clean History Matches
83
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-6.38
PPG0.22
GF-0.28
GA-0.27
PPG0.00
PPG0.94
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate9.1%
Failed-to-score rate2.9%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate29.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.28
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean0.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.26
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.27
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate9.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-1.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.13
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score5.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.59
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate5.5%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate2.1%
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.19
Portability PPG Range-0.96
Portability Score8.61
Rest days0.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.37
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.15
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.34
Current Team ELO-6.38
Current Opponent ELO6.38
Current ELO Difference-12.75
Expected score-0.02
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Olympiakos Piraeus

W
Kifisia2–3Olympiakos Piraeus31 Oct · away
Pick: Olympiakos Piraeus 46% · hit
W
Marko0–2Olympiakos Piraeus28 Oct · away
Pick: Olympiakos Piraeus 46% · hit
W
Olympiakos Piraeus5–0Kalamata25 Oct · home
Pick: Olympiakos Piraeus 68% · hit
W
Olympiakos Piraeus1–0Sparta Praha22 Oct · home
Pick: Olympiakos Piraeus 43% · hit
W
Panetolikos0–2Olympiakos Piraeus18 Oct · away
Pick: Panetolikos 36% · missed

PAOK

W
PAOK2–1Asteras Tripolis1 Nov · home
Pick: PAOK 73% · hit
W
PAOK3–1AEK Athens FC28 Oct · home
Pick: PAOK 46% · hit
L
OFI2–1PAOK25 Oct · away
Pick: PAOK 51% · missed
W
PAOK2–1Iraklis 190818 Oct · home
Pick: PAOK 67% · hit
L
PAOK1–3Kalamata12 Oct · home
Pick: PAOK 69% · missed

About this match

Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK meet in Super League 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Piraeus. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Olympiakos Piraeus win 36.1%, draw 25.7%, PAOK win 38.2%. The pick is PAOK win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.7%. Both teams to score: 49.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.