ScoreProb
Super League 1 Greece Round 10 2026

Iraklis 1908 vs Panathinaikos

Iraklis 1908 Home · Elo 1,618
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Panathinaikos Away · Elo 1,621
Kaftanzoglio Stadium, Thessaloniki Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Panathinaikos win
Iraklis 1908 win
27.9%
Draw
27.5%
Panathinaikos winPick
44.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.4%
No45.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.5%
Under 2.546.5%

How much we know

Iraklis 1908 history44 matches
Panathinaikos history84 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Panathinaikos are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,618 against 1,621. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Iraklis 1908 score more

    1.64 goals a game over 44 matches for Iraklis 1908, against 1.45 over 84 for Panathinaikos.

  • Iraklis 1908 concede fewer

    Iraklis 1908 concede 0.98 a game, Panathinaikos 1.15.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of Iraklis 1908 matches, against 52% for Panathinaikos. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Iraklis 1908
Panathinaikos
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1618.4
ELO
1620.6
44
ELO · Matches
84
1618.4
Current Team ELO
1620.6
1620.6
Current Opponent ELO
1618.4
-2.26
Current ELO Difference
2.26
0.50
Expected score
0.50
44
History Matches
84
0.12
Residual Mean
0.07
58.42
Overperformance
55.42
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.20
0.60
Goals for per game
1.40
2.20
Goals against per game
1.80
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.60
0.90
Goals for per game
1.90
1.30
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.80
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.91
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
84
2.00
PPG
1.61
56.8%
Win rate
44.0%
29.5%
Draw rate
28.6%
13.6%
Loss rate
27.4%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
52.4%
29.5%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
44
2.15
PPG
1.27
60.0%
Win rate
34.1%
35.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
5.0%
Loss rate
40.9%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
65.0%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
45.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.8%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
20
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.64
Goals for per game
1.45
84.1%
Scoring rate
76.2%
50.0%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.95
Goals for per game
1.27
85.0%
Scoring rate
70.5%
45.0%
BTTS rate
59.1%
0.00
Goals for per game
—
0.0%
Scoring rate
—
0.0%
BTTS rate
—
44
History Matches
84
1.64
Goals Mean
1.45
1.17
Goals Std
1.14
84.1%
Scored 1+ rate
76.2%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
45.2%
20.5%
Scored 3+ rate
19.0%
1.95
Venue Goals Mean
1.27
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.98
Goals against per game
1.15
59.1%
Conceding rate
71.4%
0.75
Goals against per game
1.43
45.0%
Conceding rate
79.5%
4.00
Goals against per game
—
100.0%
Conceding rate
—
44
History Matches
84
0.98
Conceded Mean
1.15
1.22
Conceded Std
1.05
20.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.6%
9.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.7%
0.75
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
15.9%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
55.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
40.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
15.9%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
55.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.5%
40.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
84
0.87
Result entropy
0.98
1.92
Goal Difference Std
1.63
13.24
Stability score
2.26
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
83
18
Lead Matches
26
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
88.5%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.92
7
Trailing Matches
18
42.9%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
22.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
83
0.82
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.94
Rest days
88.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
20
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.05
24
Normal Rest History Matches
46
1.83
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.43
17
Long Rest History Matches
17
2.06
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.59
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
0
0.00
PPG
—
0.0%
Win rate
—
0.0%
Draw rate
—
100.0%
Loss rate
—
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1
Current Competition Matches
0
0.00
Current Competition PPG
—
-4.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
—
6
Competition Season Count
10
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.78
Portability PPG Std
0.31
1.73
Portability PPG Range
0.81
39.18
Portability Score
61.64
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
84
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-2.26
PPG0.39
GF0.18
GA-0.18
PPG0.88
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-40
Clean-sheet rate12.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-24
Clean-sheet rate34.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-40
Goals Mean0.18
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate7.9%
Scored 2+ rate4.8%
Scored 3+ rate1.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.68
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.19
History Matches-40
Conceded Mean-0.18
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate12.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.68
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.17
History Matches-40
Result entropy-0.11
Goal Difference Std0.29
Stability score10.98
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.11
Eligible Matches-39
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate0.4%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate9.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches-39
First Half Goals For Mean0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Current Competition Matches1
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std0.46
Portability PPG Range0.92
Portability Score-22.45
Rest days-10.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-18
Short Rest Points Per Match0.95
Normal Rest History Matches-22
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.40
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.47
Current Team ELO-2.26
Current Opponent ELO2.26
Current ELO Difference-4.53
Expected score-0.01
History Matches-40
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance3.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Iraklis 1908

D
Kalamata1–1Iraklis 19082 Nov · away
Pick: Kalamata 60% · missed
L
Iraklis 19082–3Kifisia24 Oct · home
Pick: Iraklis 1908 41% · missed
L
PAOK2–1Iraklis 190818 Oct · away
Pick: PAOK 67% · hit
D
Volos NFC1–1Iraklis 190829 Aug · away
Pick: Volos NFC 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Panathinaikos

W
Panathinaikos2–1Aris Thessalonikis28 Oct · home
Pick: Panathinaikos 51% · hit
W
Volos NFC0–1Panathinaikos25 Oct · away
Pick: Panathinaikos 54% · hit
W
Kairat Almaty1–5Panathinaikos22 Oct · away
Pick: Kairat Almaty 47% · missed
W
Panathinaikos5–1Asteras Tripolis18 Oct · home
Pick: Panathinaikos 61% · hit
W
Panathinaikos2–1Borac Banja Luka15 Oct · home
Pick: Panathinaikos 35% · hit

About this match

Iraklis 1908 and Panathinaikos meet in Super League 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. The match is played at Kaftanzoglio Stadium, Thessaloniki. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Iraklis 1908 win 27.9%, draw 27.5%, Panathinaikos win 44.6%. The pick is Panathinaikos win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.5%. Both teams to score: 54.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.