ScoreProb
Super League 1 Greece Round 10 2026

OFI vs Atromitos

OFI Home · Elo 1,511
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Atromitos Away · Elo 1,527
Pankritio Stadium, Heraklion Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: OFI win
OFI winPick
63.1%
Draw
17.1%
Atromitos win
19.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.6%
No49.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.6%
Under 2.547.4%

How much we know

OFI history64 matches
Atromitos history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (63.1%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why OFI are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,511 against 1,527. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.27 goals a game over 64 matches for OFI, against 1.29 over 59 for Atromitos.

  • Atromitos concede fewer

    OFI concede 1.55 a game, Atromitos 1.07.

  • OFI games more often go over 2.5 goals

    58% of OFI matches, against 46% for Atromitos. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
OFI
Atromitos
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1510.7
ELO
1527.3
64
ELO · Matches
59
1510.7
Current Team ELO
1527.3
1527.3
Current Opponent ELO
1510.7
-16.62
Current ELO Difference
16.62
0.48
Expected score
0.52
64
History Matches
59
0.00
Residual Mean
0.02
50.22
Overperformance
51.84
-0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
2.20
2.20
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.80
1.50
Goals for per game
2.30
2.20
Goals against per game
1.10
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.68
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.44
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
59
1.25
PPG
1.39
35.9%
Win rate
37.3%
17.2%
Draw rate
27.1%
46.9%
Loss rate
35.6%
82.8%
Over 1.5 rate
64.4%
57.8%
Over 2.5 rate
45.8%
31.3%
Over 3.5 rate
20.3%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
29
1.55
PPG
1.45
48.3%
Win rate
41.4%
10.3%
Draw rate
20.7%
41.4%
Loss rate
37.9%
89.7%
Over 1.5 rate
65.5%
55.2%
Over 2.5 rate
44.8%
24.1%
Over 3.5 rate
17.2%
2.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
29
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.27
Goals for per game
1.29
70.3%
Scoring rate
71.2%
45.3%
BTTS rate
49.2%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.28
72.4%
Scoring rate
69.0%
37.9%
BTTS rate
44.8%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
64
History Matches
59
1.27
Goals Mean
1.29
1.08
Goals Std
1.26
70.3%
Scored 1+ rate
71.2%
39.1%
Scored 2+ rate
32.2%
15.6%
Scored 3+ rate
15.3%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.28
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.55
Goals against per game
1.07
71.9%
Conceding rate
67.8%
1.24
Goals against per game
1.07
65.5%
Conceding rate
69.0%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
64
History Matches
59
1.55
Conceded Mean
1.07
1.30
Conceded Std
0.97
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.5%
23.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.1%
1.24
Venue Conceded Mean
1.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
32.2%
29.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.8%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
32.2%
29.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.8%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
32.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
59
0.93
Result entropy
0.99
1.98
Goal Difference Std
1.62
6.64
Stability score
0.84
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
59
24
Lead Matches
20
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.77
20
Trailing Matches
12
10.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.92
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.02
Rest days
77.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
33
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.27
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.14
22
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.52
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
9
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.72
Portability PPG Std
0.13
2.22
Portability PPG Range
0.32
41.11
Portability Score
79.52
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-16.62
PPG-0.14
GF-0.02
GA0.48
PPG3.00
PPG0.10
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate0.9%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.02
Goals Std-0.18
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate6.9%
Scored 3+ rate0.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.75
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.48
Conceded Std0.33
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate19.5%
Conceded 3+ rate18.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.14
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.36
Stability score5.81
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.71
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate5.0%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.59
Portability PPG Range1.90
Portability Score-38.41
Rest days-0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.13
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.52
Current Team ELO-16.62
Current Opponent ELO16.62
Current ELO Difference-33.25
Expected score-0.05
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.62
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

OFI

W
Panetolikos0–1OFI1 Nov · away
Pick: OFI 37% · hit
L
Larisa1–0OFI28 Oct · away
Pick: OFI 49% · missed
W
OFI2–1PAOK25 Oct · home
Pick: PAOK 51% · missed
L
OFI0–2Bayer Leverkusen22 Oct · home
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen 51% · hit
L
Kalamata4–3OFI18 Oct · away
Pick: Kalamata 38% · hit

Atromitos

W
Atromitos3–0Volos NFC2 Nov · home
Pick: Atromitos 51% · hit
W
Volos NFC1–3Atromitos29 Oct · away
Pick: Volos NFC 38% · missed
L
Aris Thessalonikis3–1Atromitos25 Oct · away
Pick: Aris Thessalonikis 49% · hit
L
Atromitos1–2PAOK30 Aug · home
Pick: PAOK 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

OFI and Atromitos meet in Super League 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Pankritio Stadium, Heraklion. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: OFI win 63.1%, draw 17.1%, Atromitos win 19.8%. The pick is OFI win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.6%. Both teams to score: 50.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.