ScoreProb
FA WSL England Round 9 2026

Aston Villa W vs Manchester United W

Aston Villa W Home · Elo 1,460
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Manchester United W Away · Elo 1,619
Bescot Stadium, Walsall Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Manchester United W win
Aston Villa W win
22.1%
Draw
21.2%
Manchester United W winPick
56.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.9%
No47.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.5%
Under 2.540.5%

How much we know

Aston Villa W history38 matches
Manchester United W history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Manchester United W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Manchester United W are rated 159 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,619 against 1,460. On rating alone Manchester United W would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.

  • Manchester United W score more

    1.42 goals a game over 38 matches for Aston Villa W, against 1.82 over 56 for Manchester United W.

  • Manchester United W concede fewer

    Aston Villa W concede 2.05 a game, Manchester United W 1.00.

  • Aston Villa W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    68% of Aston Villa W matches, against 55% for Manchester United W. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Aston Villa W
Manchester United W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1460.1
ELO
1619.2
38
ELO · Matches
56
1460.1
Current Team ELO
1619.2
1619.2
Current Opponent ELO
1460.1
-159.1
Current ELO Difference
159.1
0.29
Expected score
0.71
38
History Matches
56
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.10
46.29
Overperformance
57.73
-0.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.25
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.40
1.20
Goals for per game
0.40
2.40
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
0.70
1.20
Goals for per game
0.70
2.90
Goals against per game
1.40
10.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
2.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.49
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
38
Matches
56
1.13
PPG
1.89
31.6%
Win rate
57.1%
18.4%
Draw rate
17.9%
50.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
84.2%
Over 1.5 rate
73.2%
68.4%
Over 2.5 rate
55.4%
42.1%
Over 3.5 rate
32.1%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
28
1.06
PPG
1.68
27.8%
Win rate
50.0%
22.2%
Draw rate
17.9%
50.0%
Loss rate
32.1%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
64.3%
72.2%
Over 2.5 rate
46.4%
55.6%
Over 3.5 rate
32.1%
2.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
18
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.42
Goals for per game
1.82
68.4%
Scoring rate
75.0%
57.9%
BTTS rate
39.3%
1.56
Goals for per game
1.68
61.1%
Scoring rate
67.9%
55.6%
BTTS rate
32.1%
38
History Matches
56
1.42
Goals Mean
1.82
1.31
Goals Std
1.51
68.4%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
39.5%
Scored 2+ rate
55.4%
28.9%
Scored 3+ rate
30.4%
1.56
Venue Goals Mean
1.68
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.05
Goals against per game
1.00
78.9%
Conceding rate
55.4%
2.28
Goals against per game
1.07
83.3%
Conceding rate
50.0%
38
History Matches
56
2.05
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.64
Conceded Std
1.21
63.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.2%
34.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.1%
2.28
Venue Conceded Mean
1.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
44.6%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
38.9%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
44.6%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
38.9%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
44.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
38
History Matches
56
0.93
Result entropy
0.89
2.01
Goal Difference Std
2.07
6.96
Stability score
11.34
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
38
Eligible Matches
56
7
Lead Matches
25
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
96.0%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.96
12
Trailing Matches
14
33.3%
Non-loss rate
35.7%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
38
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
1.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
175.0
Rest days
175.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
7
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.57
14
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.91
21
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.10
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.93
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.16
0.76
Portability PPG Range
0.43
60.60
Portability Score
75.84
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
38
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-159.1
PPG-0.76
GF-0.40
GA1.05
PPG-0.62
PPG0.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Failed-to-score rate6.6%
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.33
Failed-to-score rate6.7%
History Matches-18
Goals Mean-0.40
Goals Std-0.20
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.30
History Matches-18
Conceded Mean1.05
Conceded Std0.43
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Conceded 2+ rate39.9%
Conceded 3+ rate18.1%
Venue Conceded Mean1.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.85
History Matches-18
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score-4.39
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.39
Eligible Matches-18
Lead Matches-18
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate2.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches-18
First Half Goals For Mean-0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.78
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.17
Portability PPG Range0.33
Portability Score-15.24
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.07
Normal Rest History Matches-19
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.55
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.84
Current Team ELO-159.1
Current Opponent ELO159.1
Current ELO Difference-318.1
Expected score-0.43
History Matches-18
Residual Mean-0.16
Overperformance-11.44
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Aston Villa W

D
Arsenal W1–1Aston Villa W1 Nov · away
Pick: Arsenal W 78% · missed
W
Everton W2–3Aston Villa W25 Oct · away
Pick: Everton W 41% · missed
W
Burnley W0–2Aston Villa W21 Oct · away
Pick: Burnley W 41% · missed
W
Aston Villa W2–1Liverpool W18 Oct · home
Pick: Liverpool W 53% · missed
D
Aston Villa W1–1Crystal Palace W4 Oct · home
Pick: Crystal Palace W 51% · missed

Manchester United W

D
Everton W0–0Manchester United W31 Oct · away
Pick: Manchester United W 48% · missed
W
Manchester United W3–0Burnley W28 Oct · home
Pick: Manchester United W 73% · hit
D
Manchester United W1–1Manchester City W25 Oct · home
Pick: Manchester United W 49% · missed
W
Liverpool W3–5Manchester United W21 Oct · away
Pick: Manchester United W 44% · hit
W
Charlton Athletic W1–3Manchester United W18 Oct · away
Pick: Manchester United W 46% · hit

About this match

Aston Villa W and Manchester United W meet in FA WSL on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at Bescot Stadium, Walsall. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Aston Villa W win 22.1%, draw 21.2%, Manchester United W win 56.7%. The pick is Manchester United W win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.5%. Both teams to score: 52.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.