ScoreProb
FA WSL England Round 9 2026

Liverpool W vs Arsenal W

Liverpool W Home · Elo 1,479
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Arsenal W Away · Elo 1,679
St Helens Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Arsenal W win
Liverpool W win
28.8%
Draw
20.5%
Arsenal W winPick
50.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.0%
No44.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.7%
Under 2.541.3%

How much we know

Liverpool W history44 matches
Arsenal W history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Arsenal W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Arsenal W are rated 200 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,679 against 1,479. On rating alone Arsenal W would be expected to take 76% of the points on offer.

  • Arsenal W score far more

    1.32 goals a game over 44 matches for Liverpool W, against 2.35 over 60 for Arsenal W.

  • Arsenal W concede fewer

    Liverpool W concede 1.59 a game, Arsenal W 1.02.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    57% of Liverpool W matches, against 62% for Arsenal W. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Liverpool W
Arsenal W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1479.1
ELO
1679.1
44
ELO · Matches
60
1479.1
Current Team ELO
1679.1
1679.1
Current Opponent ELO
1479.1
-200.0
Current ELO Difference
200.0
0.24
Expected score
0.76
44
History Matches
60
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.16
47.85
Overperformance
61.92
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
2.00
0.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.90
1.00
Goals for per game
2.30
1.30
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.15
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.60
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
60
1.18
PPG
2.07
34.1%
Win rate
65.0%
15.9%
Draw rate
11.7%
50.0%
Loss rate
23.3%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
56.8%
Over 2.5 rate
61.7%
34.1%
Over 3.5 rate
45.0%
2.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
26
1.25
PPG
1.85
35.0%
Win rate
57.7%
20.0%
Draw rate
11.5%
45.0%
Loss rate
30.8%
85.0%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
55.0%
Over 2.5 rate
61.5%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
53.8%
2.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
20
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.32
Goals for per game
2.35
68.2%
Scoring rate
85.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
48.3%
1.50
Goals for per game
2.23
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.8%
60.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
44
History Matches
60
1.32
Goals Mean
2.35
1.39
Goals Std
1.69
68.2%
Scored 1+ rate
85.0%
34.1%
Scored 2+ rate
65.0%
13.6%
Scored 3+ rate
41.7%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
2.23
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.59
Goals against per game
1.02
75.0%
Conceding rate
58.3%
1.75
Goals against per game
1.23
75.0%
Conceding rate
61.5%
44
History Matches
60
1.59
Conceded Mean
1.02
1.61
Conceded Std
1.16
45.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
18.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.3%
1.75
Venue Conceded Mean
1.23
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
15.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
15.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
60
0.92
Result entropy
0.79
2.36
Goal Difference Std
2.12
8.44
Stability score
20.79
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
60
13
Lead Matches
27
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
92.6%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.94
12
Trailing Matches
14
8.3%
Non-loss rate
35.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
21.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.75
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.30
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
175.0
Rest days
175.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.40
20
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.88
22
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.69
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.18
1.48
Portability PPG Range
0.52
48.03
Portability Score
73.88
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-200.0
PPG-0.88
GF-1.03
GA0.57
PPG-0.60
PPG-1.80
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate16.8%
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate0.8%
History Matches-16
Goals Mean-1.03
Goals Std-0.30
Scored 1+ rate-0.17
Scored 2+ rate-0.31
Scored 3+ rate-0.28
Venue Goals Mean-0.73
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.05
History Matches-16
Conceded Mean0.57
Conceded Std0.45
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate20.5%
Conceded 3+ rate4.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.52
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.16
History Matches-16
Result entropy0.12
Goal Difference Std0.24
Stability score-12.35
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.33
Eligible Matches-16
Lead Matches-14
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.27
Trailing Win Rate-0.21
Halftime Coverage Matches-16
First Half Goals For Mean-0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.36
Portability PPG Range0.96
Portability Score-25.85
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.40
Normal Rest History Matches-21
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.58
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.56
Current Team ELO-200.0
Current Opponent ELO200.0
Current ELO Difference-400.0
Expected score-0.52
History Matches-16
Residual Mean-0.19
Overperformance-14.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Liverpool W

L
West Ham W4–1Liverpool W1 Nov · away
Pick: Liverpool W 45% · missed
D
Liverpool W2–2London City Lionesses W25 Oct · home
Pick: Liverpool W 47% · missed
L
Liverpool W3–5Manchester United W21 Oct · home
Pick: Manchester United W 44% · hit
L
Aston Villa W2–1Liverpool W18 Oct · away
Pick: Liverpool W 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Arsenal W

D
Arsenal W1–1Aston Villa W1 Nov · home
Pick: Arsenal W 78% · missed
W
Arsenal W3–0SL Benfica W28 Oct · home
Pick: Arsenal W 63% · hit
W
Tottenham Hotspur W1–2Arsenal W24 Oct · away
Pick: Arsenal W 53% · hit
D
Arsenal W1–1Birmingham City W17 Oct · home
Pick: Arsenal W 62% · missed
L
Manchester City W4–2Arsenal W4 Oct · away
Pick: Arsenal W 41% · missed

About this match

Liverpool W and Arsenal W meet in FA WSL on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at St Helens Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Liverpool W win 28.8%, draw 20.5%, Arsenal W win 50.7%. The pick is Arsenal W win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.7%. Both teams to score: 56.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.