ScoreProb
FA WSL England Round 9 2026

Manchester City W vs West Ham W

Manchester City W Home · Elo 1,679
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
West Ham W Away · Elo 1,464
Academy Stadium, Manchester Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Manchester City W win
Manchester City W winPick
68.8%
Draw
17.1%
West Ham W win
14.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.1%
No44.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.4%
Under 2.528.6%

How much we know

Manchester City W history49 matches
West Ham W history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (68.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Manchester City W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Manchester City W are rated 214 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,679 against 1,464. On rating alone Manchester City W would be expected to take 77% of the points on offer.

  • Manchester City W score far more

    2.53 goals a game over 49 matches for Manchester City W, against 1.40 over 40 for West Ham W.

  • Manchester City W concede fewer

    Manchester City W concede 1.02 a game, West Ham W 1.88.

  • Manchester City W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    71% of Manchester City W matches, against 58% for West Ham W. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 1 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Manchester City W
West Ham W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1678.9
ELO
1464.4
49
ELO · Matches
40
1678.9
Current Team ELO
1464.4
1464.4
Current Opponent ELO
1678.9
214.5
Current ELO Difference
-214.5
0.77
Expected score
0.23
49
History Matches
40
0.18
Residual Mean
-0.04
62.45
Overperformance
47.18
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
2.60
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.10
2.60
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.70
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.56
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.62
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
40
2.20
PPG
1.08
69.4%
Win rate
30.0%
12.2%
Draw rate
17.5%
18.4%
Loss rate
52.5%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
57.5%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
42.5%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.33
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
20
2.39
PPG
0.95
78.3%
Win rate
30.0%
4.3%
Draw rate
5.0%
17.4%
Loss rate
65.0%
87.0%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
65.2%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
52.2%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.65
23
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.53
Goals for per game
1.40
89.8%
Scoring rate
67.5%
57.1%
BTTS rate
55.0%
2.87
Goals for per game
1.45
91.3%
Scoring rate
55.0%
52.2%
BTTS rate
40.0%
49
History Matches
40
2.53
Goals Mean
1.40
1.67
Goals Std
1.48
89.8%
Scored 1+ rate
67.5%
71.4%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
42.9%
Scored 3+ rate
17.5%
2.87
Venue Goals Mean
1.45
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.02
Goals against per game
1.88
65.3%
Conceding rate
82.5%
0.96
Goals against per game
1.90
60.9%
Conceding rate
85.0%
49
History Matches
40
1.02
Conceded Mean
1.88
0.98
Conceded Std
1.57
26.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.5%
8.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
0.96
Venue Conceded Mean
1.90
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.5%
10.2%
Failed-to-score rate
32.5%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
8.7%
Failed-to-score rate
45.0%
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.5%
10.2%
Failed-to-score rate
32.5%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
8.7%
Failed-to-score rate
45.0%
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
40
0.75
Result entropy
0.91
2.02
Goal Difference Std
2.33
25.18
Stability score
8.57
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
40
26
Lead Matches
10
92.3%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.80
10
Trailing Matches
16
30.0%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
40
1.22
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
1.31
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.03
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
159.9
Rest days
175.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
24
Normal Rest History Matches
16
2.04
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.88
22
Long Rest History Matches
22
2.41
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.18
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.27
0.80
Portability PPG Range
0.64
61.55
Portability Score
64.64
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO214.5
PPG1.13
GF1.13
GA-0.85
PPG1.44
PPG0.60
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate17.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate24.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.36
History Matches9
Goals Mean1.13
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate22.3%
Scored 2+ rate31.4%
Scored 3+ rate25.4%
Venue Goals Mean1.42
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.67
History Matches9
Conceded Mean-0.85
Conceded Std-0.59
Clean-sheet rate17.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.21
Conceded 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Conceded Mean-0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.54
History Matches9
Result entropy-0.17
Goal Difference Std-0.31
Stability score16.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.23
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches16
Lead Win Rate12.3%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate11.3%
Trailing Win Rate13.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.49
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.16
Portability Score-3.09
Rest days-15.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.17
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match1.23
Current Team ELO214.5
Current Opponent ELO-214.5
Current ELO Difference428.9
Expected score0.55
History Matches9
Residual Mean0.22
Overperformance15.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Manchester City W

W
London City Lionesses W1–2Manchester City W1 Nov · away
Pick: Manchester City W 48% · hit
D
Manchester City W1–1Paris Saint Germain W29 Oct · home
Pick: Manchester City W 56% · missed
D
Manchester United W1–1Manchester City W25 Oct · away
Pick: Manchester United W 49% · missed
W
Manchester City W3–2Brighton W18 Oct · home
Pick: Manchester City W 65% · hit
W
Manchester City W4–2Arsenal W4 Oct · home
Pick: Arsenal W 41% · missed

West Ham W

W
West Ham W4–1Liverpool W1 Nov · home
Pick: Liverpool W 45% · missed
W
Charlton Athletic W1–2West Ham W28 Oct · away
Pick: Charlton Athletic W 44% · missed
L
Brighton W3–0West Ham W24 Oct · away
Pick: Brighton W 50% · hit
L
West Ham W1–2London City Lionesses W21 Oct · home
Pick: West Ham W 48% · missed
W
Crystal Palace W0–1West Ham W18 Oct · away
Pick: Crystal Palace W 45% · missed

About this match

Manchester City W and West Ham W meet in FA WSL on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at Academy Stadium, Manchester. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Manchester City W win 68.8%, draw 17.1%, West Ham W win 14.1%. The pick is Manchester City W win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.4%. Both teams to score: 55.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.