ScoreProb
Oberliga - Bayern Nord Germany Bayern Nord - 18 2026

ASV Neumarkt vs Ammerthal

ASV Neumarkt Home · Elo 1,462
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ammerthal Away · Elo 1,431
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: ASV Neumarkt win
ASV Neumarkt winPick
52.1%
Draw
19.2%
Ammerthal win
28.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.5%
No43.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.2%
Under 2.531.8%

How much we know

ASV Neumarkt history55 matches
Ammerthal history22 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why ASV Neumarkt are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • ASV Neumarkt are rated 30 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,462 against 1,431. On rating alone ASV Neumarkt would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • ASV Neumarkt score more

    1.67 goals a game over 55 matches for ASV Neumarkt, against 1.27 over 22 for Ammerthal.

  • ASV Neumarkt concede fewer

    ASV Neumarkt concede 1.84 a game, Ammerthal 2.41.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    65% of ASV Neumarkt matches, against 73% for Ammerthal. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ASV Neumarkt
Ammerthal
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1461.8
ELO
1431.5
55
ELO · Matches
22
1461.8
Current Team ELO
1431.5
1431.5
Current Opponent ELO
1461.8
30.30
Current ELO Difference
-30.30
0.54
Expected score
0.46
55
History Matches
22
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.15
46.85
Overperformance
42.36
-0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
2.40
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
0.90
2.10
Goals against per game
2.70
10.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.34
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.54
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.70
1.51
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.69
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.81
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.68
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
22
1.31
PPG
0.82
38.2%
Win rate
22.7%
16.4%
Draw rate
13.6%
45.5%
Loss rate
63.6%
83.6%
Over 1.5 rate
86.4%
65.5%
Over 2.5 rate
72.7%
47.3%
Over 3.5 rate
31.8%
2.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.49
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
10
1.64
PPG
0.80
52.0%
Win rate
20.0%
8.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
76.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
64.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
32.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
2.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
25
History Matches
10
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.67
Goals for per game
1.27
67.3%
Scoring rate
72.7%
47.3%
BTTS rate
63.6%
1.68
Goals for per game
1.30
64.0%
Scoring rate
70.0%
32.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
0.86
Goals for per game
1.00
57.1%
Scoring rate
85.7%
57.1%
BTTS rate
71.4%
55
History Matches
22
1.67
Goals Mean
1.27
1.50
Goals Std
1.32
67.3%
Scored 1+ rate
72.7%
50.9%
Scored 2+ rate
22.7%
32.7%
Scored 3+ rate
18.2%
1.68
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.84
Goals against per game
2.41
74.5%
Conceding rate
86.4%
1.28
Goals against per game
2.40
64.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.43
100.0%
Conceding rate
71.4%
55
History Matches
22
1.84
Conceded Mean
2.41
1.53
Conceded Std
2.12
54.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
63.6%
32.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
36.4%
1.28
Venue Conceded Mean
2.40
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
36.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
36.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
22
0.93
Result entropy
0.82
2.29
Goal Difference Std
2.49
6.95
Stability score
18.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
21
15
Lead Matches
5
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.87
21
Trailing Matches
8
19.0%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
21
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.95
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
1.04
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.29
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.00
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
29
Normal Rest History Matches
13
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.85
22
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.18
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.88
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
0.29
PPG
1.14
0.0%
Win rate
28.6%
28.6%
Draw rate
28.6%
71.4%
Loss rate
42.9%
57.1%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
0.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.18
7
Current Competition Matches
7
0.29
Current Competition PPG
1.14
-1.14
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.43
4
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.66
Portability PPG Std
0.12
1.64
Portability PPG Range
0.23
43.22
Portability Score
81.05
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
22
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO30.30
PPG0.49
GF0.40
GA-0.57
PPG-0.86
PPG0.84
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches33
Clean-sheet rate11.8%
Failed-to-score rate5.5%
History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate16.0%
Failed-to-score rate6.0%
History Matches33
Goals Mean0.40
Goals Std0.18
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate28.2%
Scored 3+ rate14.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.80
History Matches33
Conceded Mean-0.57
Conceded Std-0.59
Clean-sheet rate11.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-1.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.17
History Matches33
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std-0.21
Stability score-11.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.86
Eligible Matches34
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches13
Non-loss rate6.5%
Trailing Win Rate14.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches34
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.37
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.39
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.86
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.71
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.54
Portability PPG Range1.41
Portability Score-37.83
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches16
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.46
Long Rest History Matches14
Long Rest Points Per Match0.31
Current Team ELO30.30
Current Opponent ELO-30.30
Current ELO Difference60.60
Expected score0.09
History Matches33
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance4.49
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

ASV Neumarkt

D
ASV Neumarkt0–0DJK Bamberg31 Oct · home
Pick: ASV Neumarkt 63% · missed
L
Cham5–1ASV Neumarkt23 Oct · away
Pick: Cham 71% · hit
L
ASV Neumarkt1–3Eintracht Bamberg17 Oct · home
Pick: Eintracht Bamberg 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ammerthal

L
Ammerthal1–3Großbardorf31 Oct · home
Pick: Ammerthal 53% · missed
L
DJK Bamberg4–1Ammerthal23 Oct · away
Pick: Ammerthal 47% · missed
L
Ammerthal0–2Cham18 Oct · home
Pick: Cham 77% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

ASV Neumarkt and Ammerthal meet in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: ASV Neumarkt win 52.1%, draw 19.2%, Ammerthal win 28.6%. The pick is ASV Neumarkt win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.2%. Both teams to score: 56.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.