ScoreProb
Oberliga - Bayern Nord Germany Bayern Nord - 18 2026

Gebenbach vs Nordlingen

Gebenbach Home · Elo 1,584
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Nordlingen Away · Elo 1,481
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gebenbach win
Gebenbach winPick
66.4%
Draw
17.2%
Nordlingen win
16.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.7%
No42.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.2%
Under 2.530.8%

How much we know

Gebenbach history56 matches
Nordlingen history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (66.4%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Gebenbach are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Gebenbach are rated 103 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,584 against 1,481. On rating alone Gebenbach would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.63 goals a game over 56 matches for Gebenbach, against 1.55 over 51 for Nordlingen.

  • Gebenbach concede fewer

    Gebenbach concede 1.64 a game, Nordlingen 1.90.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    63% of Gebenbach matches, against 67% for Nordlingen. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gebenbach
Nordlingen
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1584.5
ELO
1481.3
56
ELO · Matches
51
1584.5
Current Team ELO
1481.3
1481.3
Current Opponent ELO
1584.5
103.2
Current ELO Difference
-103.2
0.64
Expected score
0.36
56
History Matches
51
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.02
55.13
Overperformance
48.62
0.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.80
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.70
PPG
0.90
2.20
Goals for per game
1.20
0.80
Goals against per game
2.70
90.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.70
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.45
0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.14
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
51
1.59
PPG
1.24
48.2%
Win rate
31.4%
14.3%
Draw rate
29.4%
37.5%
Loss rate
39.2%
76.8%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
51.0%
2.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.19
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
26
1.58
PPG
1.19
46.2%
Win rate
30.8%
19.2%
Draw rate
26.9%
34.6%
Loss rate
42.3%
80.8%
Over 1.5 rate
92.3%
69.2%
Over 2.5 rate
76.9%
46.2%
Over 3.5 rate
65.4%
2.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
26
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.63
Goals for per game
1.55
83.9%
Scoring rate
78.4%
57.1%
BTTS rate
68.6%
1.77
Goals for per game
1.81
84.6%
Scoring rate
88.5%
57.7%
BTTS rate
80.8%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.43
100.0%
Scoring rate
57.1%
57.1%
BTTS rate
57.1%
56
History Matches
51
1.63
Goals Mean
1.55
1.23
Goals Std
1.24
83.9%
Scored 1+ rate
78.4%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
43.1%
19.6%
Scored 3+ rate
25.5%
1.77
Venue Goals Mean
1.81
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.64
Goals against per game
1.90
69.6%
Conceding rate
82.4%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.12
69.2%
Conceding rate
88.5%
0.71
Goals against per game
1.71
57.1%
Conceding rate
85.7%
56
History Matches
51
1.64
Conceded Mean
1.90
1.85
Conceded Std
1.66
39.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.9%
19.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.5%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
2.12
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
16.1%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
11.5%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
11.5%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
16.1%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
11.5%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
11.5%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
51
0.91
Result entropy
0.99
2.42
Goal Difference Std
2.19
9.20
Stability score
0.72
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
50
19
Lead Matches
14
68.4%
Lead Win Rate
78.6%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.86
12
Trailing Matches
17
16.7%
Non-loss rate
35.3%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.72
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.87
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.10
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.00
Rest days
77.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
30
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.80
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
21
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.57
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
2.57
PPG
1.29
85.7%
Win rate
28.6%
0.0%
Draw rate
42.9%
14.3%
Loss rate
28.6%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
7
Current Competition Matches
7
2.57
Current Competition PPG
1.29
1.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.29
5
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.71
Portability PPG Std
0.32
1.82
Portability PPG Range
0.76
41.37
Portability Score
60.95
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO103.2
PPG0.35
GF0.08
GA-0.26
PPG1.29
PPG0.38
PPG0.80
PPG1.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate12.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate19.2%
Failed-to-score rate3.8%
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.08
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate5.5%
Scored 2+ rate6.9%
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.45
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.26
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate12.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.62
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.70
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.23
Stability score8.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-2.12
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate2.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.57
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.39
Portability PPG Range1.06
Portability Score-19.58
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.42
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.57
Current Team ELO103.2
Current Opponent ELO-103.2
Current ELO Difference206.4
Expected score0.29
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.52
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.44

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gebenbach

D
Gebenbach3–3Würzburger FV31 Oct · home
Pick: Gebenbach 45% · missed
D
Viktoria Aschaffenburg0–0Gebenbach23 Oct · away
Pick: Gebenbach 52% · missed
L
Gebenbach1–6Jahn Regensburg II17 Oct · home
Pick: Gebenbach 64% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Nordlingen

L
Stadeln4–1Nordlingen31 Oct · away
Pick: Stadeln 48% · hit
W
Nordlingen2–1Fortuna Regensburg24 Oct · home
Pick: Fortuna Regensburg 45% · missed
D
Weiden1–1Nordlingen17 Oct · away
Pick: Weiden 43% · missed
L
Nordlingen0–1Eintracht Bamberg29 Aug · home
Pick: Eintracht Bamberg 55% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Gebenbach and Nordlingen meet in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Gebenbach win 66.4%, draw 17.2%, Nordlingen win 16.4%. The pick is Gebenbach win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.2%. Both teams to score: 57.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.