ScoreProb
Oberliga - Bayern Nord Germany Bayern Nord - 18 2026

Fortuna Regensburg vs Neudrossenfeld

Fortuna Regensburg Home · Elo 1,505
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Neudrossenfeld Away · Elo 1,444
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Fortuna Regensburg win
Fortuna Regensburg winPick
49.7%
Draw
20.2%
Neudrossenfeld win
30.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes65.3%
No34.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.572.8%
Under 2.527.2%

How much we know

Fortuna Regensburg history53 matches
Neudrossenfeld history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Fortuna Regensburg are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Fortuna Regensburg are rated 61 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,505 against 1,444. On rating alone Fortuna Regensburg would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Fortuna Regensburg score more

    2.21 goals a game over 53 matches for Fortuna Regensburg, against 1.45 over 53 for Neudrossenfeld.

  • Defences are close

    Fortuna Regensburg concede 1.91 a game, Neudrossenfeld 1.77.

  • Fortuna Regensburg games more often go over 2.5 goals

    75% of Fortuna Regensburg matches, against 64% for Neudrossenfeld. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Fortuna Regensburg
Neudrossenfeld
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1504.8
ELO
1443.7
53
ELO · Matches
53
1504.8
Current Team ELO
1443.7
1443.7
Current Opponent ELO
1504.8
61.04
Current ELO Difference
-61.04
0.59
Expected score
0.41
53
History Matches
53
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.05
50.16
Overperformance
46.32
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.60
2.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
0.80
2.10
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.76
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.63
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
53
1.45
PPG
1.19
41.5%
Win rate
34.0%
20.8%
Draw rate
17.0%
37.7%
Loss rate
49.1%
90.6%
Over 1.5 rate
83.0%
75.5%
Over 2.5 rate
64.2%
64.2%
Over 3.5 rate
32.1%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
26
2.15
PPG
0.88
65.4%
Win rate
23.1%
19.2%
Draw rate
19.2%
15.4%
Loss rate
57.7%
96.2%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
88.5%
Over 2.5 rate
69.2%
84.6%
Over 3.5 rate
26.9%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
26
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.21
Goals for per game
1.45
83.0%
Scoring rate
83.0%
77.4%
BTTS rate
62.3%
3.04
Goals for per game
1.23
96.2%
Scoring rate
76.9%
92.3%
BTTS rate
69.2%
1.86
Goals for per game
1.29
57.1%
Scoring rate
85.7%
57.1%
BTTS rate
57.1%
53
History Matches
53
2.21
Goals Mean
1.45
1.70
Goals Std
1.13
83.0%
Scored 1+ rate
83.0%
67.9%
Scored 2+ rate
37.7%
35.8%
Scored 3+ rate
15.1%
3.04
Venue Goals Mean
1.23
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.91
Goals against per game
1.77
90.6%
Conceding rate
75.5%
1.62
Goals against per game
2.08
96.2%
Conceding rate
84.6%
1.57
Goals against per game
1.71
100.0%
Conceding rate
71.4%
53
History Matches
53
1.91
Conceded Mean
1.77
1.32
Conceded Std
1.70
58.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.8%
22.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.8%
1.62
Venue Conceded Mean
2.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
9.4%
Clean-sheet rate
24.5%
17.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.0%
3.8%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
3.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
9.4%
Clean-sheet rate
24.5%
17.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.0%
3.8%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
3.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
9.4%
Clean-sheet rate
24.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
53
0.96
Result entropy
0.93
2.08
Goal Difference Std
2.03
3.60
Stability score
7.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
53
17
Lead Matches
12
82.4%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.69
23
Trailing Matches
21
43.5%
Non-loss rate
23.8%
13.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.87
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
1.36
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
1.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.83
Rest days
76.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
33
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.18
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.15
19
Long Rest History Matches
23
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.04
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
1.29
PPG
0.86
42.9%
Win rate
28.6%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
57.1%
Loss rate
71.4%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
7
Current Competition Matches
7
1.29
Current Competition PPG
0.86
0.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.43
4
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.19
0.63
Portability PPG Range
0.46
64.64
Portability Score
72.89
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO61.04
PPG0.26
GF0.75
GA0.13
PPG0.43
PPG1.27
PPG1.20
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.75
Goals Std0.57
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate30.2%
Scored 3+ rate20.8%
Venue Goals Mean1.81
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std1.01
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.13
Conceded Std-0.38
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate5.7%
Conceded 3+ rate1.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.54
History Matches0
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score-3.81
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.13
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate15.7%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate19.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.43
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.71
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.18
Portability Score-8.25
Rest days0.85
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.03
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.96
Current Team ELO61.04
Current Opponent ELO-61.04
Current ELO Difference122.1
Expected score0.17
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Fortuna Regensburg

L
Nordlingen2–1Fortuna Regensburg24 Oct · away
Pick: Fortuna Regensburg 45% · missed
D
Fortuna Regensburg2–2Würzburger FV17 Oct · home
Pick: Würzburger FV 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Neudrossenfeld

D
Weiden2–2Neudrossenfeld30 Oct · away
Pick: Weiden 42% · missed
L
Neudrossenfeld2–3Bayern Hof23 Oct · home
Pick: Bayern Hof 39% · hit
L
Kornburg3–1Neudrossenfeld16 Oct · away
Pick: Kornburg 59% · hit
W
Ingolstadt II0–1Neudrossenfeld29 Aug · away
Pick: Ingolstadt II 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Fortuna Regensburg and Neudrossenfeld meet in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Fortuna Regensburg win 49.7%, draw 20.2%, Neudrossenfeld win 30.0%. The pick is Fortuna Regensburg win. Over 2.5 goals: 72.8%. Both teams to score: 65.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.