ScoreProb
Oberliga - Bayern Nord Germany Bayern Nord - 18 2026

Stadeln vs Ingolstadt II

Stadeln Home · Elo 1,454
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ingolstadt II Away · Elo 1,513
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Stadeln win
Stadeln winPick
45.6%
Draw
25.1%
Ingolstadt II win
29.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.1%
No37.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.6%
Under 2.532.4%

How much we know

Stadeln history43 matches
Ingolstadt II history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Stadeln are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ingolstadt II are rated 59 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,513 against 1,454. On rating alone Ingolstadt II would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Ingolstadt II score more

    1.37 goals a game over 43 matches for Stadeln, against 2.11 over 57 for Ingolstadt II.

  • Ingolstadt II concede fewer

    Stadeln concede 1.84 a game, Ingolstadt II 1.63.

  • Ingolstadt II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    60% of Stadeln matches, against 79% for Ingolstadt II. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Stadeln
Ingolstadt II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1454.2
ELO
1512.9
43
ELO · Matches
57
1454.2
Current Team ELO
1512.9
1512.9
Current Opponent ELO
1454.2
-58.62
Current ELO Difference
58.62
0.42
Expected score
0.58
43
History Matches
57
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.00
46.53
Overperformance
50.35
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
2.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.30
Goals against per game
2.00
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.42
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.41
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
43
Matches
57
1.21
PPG
1.56
34.9%
Win rate
45.6%
16.3%
Draw rate
19.3%
48.8%
Loss rate
35.1%
81.4%
Over 1.5 rate
91.2%
60.5%
Over 2.5 rate
78.9%
32.6%
Over 3.5 rate
52.6%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
30
1.50
PPG
1.30
45.5%
Win rate
36.7%
13.6%
Draw rate
20.0%
40.9%
Loss rate
43.3%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
72.7%
Over 2.5 rate
70.0%
45.5%
Over 3.5 rate
43.3%
2.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.25
22
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.37
Goals for per game
2.11
62.8%
Scoring rate
84.2%
44.2%
BTTS rate
61.4%
1.77
Goals for per game
1.77
77.3%
Scoring rate
76.7%
54.5%
BTTS rate
53.3%
1.71
Goals for per game
2.14
71.4%
Scoring rate
85.7%
57.1%
BTTS rate
57.1%
43
History Matches
57
1.37
Goals Mean
2.11
1.45
Goals Std
1.60
62.8%
Scored 1+ rate
84.2%
37.2%
Scored 2+ rate
59.6%
23.3%
Scored 3+ rate
38.6%
1.77
Venue Goals Mean
1.77
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.84
Goals against per game
1.63
72.1%
Conceding rate
73.7%
1.86
Goals against per game
1.63
68.2%
Conceding rate
70.0%
1.43
Goals against per game
2.29
71.4%
Conceding rate
71.4%
43
History Matches
57
1.84
Conceded Mean
1.63
1.63
Conceded Std
1.37
55.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
49.1%
27.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.3%
1.86
Venue Conceded Mean
1.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
37.2%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
37.2%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
43
History Matches
57
0.92
Result entropy
0.95
2.24
Goal Difference Std
2.36
7.80
Stability score
5.06
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
55
16
Lead Matches
21
68.8%
Lead Win Rate
81.0%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.86
16
Trailing Matches
15
18.8%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.27
1.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.00
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
25
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.16
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
15
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.57
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
1.71
PPG
1.14
42.9%
Win rate
28.6%
42.9%
Draw rate
28.6%
14.3%
Loss rate
42.9%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
85.7%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
57.1%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.23
7
Current Competition Matches
7
1.71
Current Competition PPG
1.14
0.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.14
5
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.34
Portability PPG Std
0.37
0.68
Portability PPG Range
1.11
59.45
Portability Score
57.29
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
43
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-58.62
PPG-0.35
GF-0.73
GA0.21
PPG0.57
PPG0.20
PPG0.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate1.6%
Failed-to-score rate21.4%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate1.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-14
Goals Mean-0.73
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate-0.21
Scored 2+ rate-0.22
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Goals Mean0.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.07
History Matches-14
Conceded Mean0.21
Conceded Std0.26
Clean-sheet rate1.6%
Conceded 2+ rate6.7%
Conceded 3+ rate1.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches-14
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score2.74
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.25
Eligible Matches-12
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.13
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate5.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-12
First Half Goals For Mean-0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.57
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.43
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.43
Portability Score2.17
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Long Rest History Matches-13
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.44
Current Team ELO-58.62
Current Opponent ELO58.62
Current ELO Difference-117.2
Expected score-0.17
History Matches-14
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-3.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Stadeln

W
Stadeln4–1Nordlingen31 Oct · home
Pick: Stadeln 48% · hit
L
Würzburger FV4–0Stadeln24 Oct · away
Pick: Würzburger FV 53% · hit
D
Stadeln1–1Viktoria Aschaffenburg17 Oct · home
Pick: Stadeln 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ingolstadt II

L
Weiden4–3Ingolstadt II24 Oct · away
Pick: Ingolstadt II 42% · missed
L
Bayern Hof3–1Ingolstadt II17 Oct · away
Pick: Bayern Hof 44% · hit
L
Ingolstadt II0–1Neudrossenfeld29 Aug · home
Pick: Ingolstadt II 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Stadeln and Ingolstadt II meet in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Stadeln win 45.6%, draw 25.1%, Ingolstadt II win 29.3%. The pick is Stadeln win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.6%. Both teams to score: 62.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.