ATK Mohun Bagan vs Odisha
Match result probability Model pick: ATK Mohun Bagan win
ATK Mohun Bagan winPick
55.1%
Draw
26.5%
Odisha win
18.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes47.7%
No52.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.549.2%
Under 2.550.8%
How much we know
ATK Mohun Bagan history32 matches
Odisha history28 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours ATK Mohun Bagan
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 13:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre5 Nov · 14:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why ATK Mohun Bagan are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
ATK Mohun Bagan are rated 109 Elo points higher
Elo 1,584 against 1,475. On rating alone ATK Mohun Bagan would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.
-
ATK Mohun Bagan score more
1.75 goals a game over 32 matches for ATK Mohun Bagan, against 1.25 over 28 for Odisha.
-
ATK Mohun Bagan concede fewer
ATK Mohun Bagan concede 0.66 a game, Odisha 1.43.
-
Odisha games more often go over 2.5 goals
38% of ATK Mohun Bagan matches, against 50% for Odisha. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 21 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Odisha@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1584.4
ELO
1475.3
32
ELO · Matches
28
1584.4
Current Team ELO
1475.3
1475.3
Current Opponent ELO
1584.4
109.0
Current ELO Difference
-109.0
0.65
Expected score
0.35
32
History Matches
28
0.16
Residual Mean
-0.06
59.67
Overperformance
46.69
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.60
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.90
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
0.80
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.56
Overall performance9 signals 90
32
Matches
28
2.00
PPG
1.11
56.3%
Win rate
25.0%
31.3%
Draw rate
35.7%
12.5%
Loss rate
39.3%
71.9%
Over 1.5 rate
67.9%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
21.9%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals 100
21
Matches
16
2.10
PPG
1.06
61.9%
Win rate
31.3%
23.8%
Draw rate
12.5%
14.3%
Loss rate
56.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
28.6%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
19.0%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
21
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.75
Goals for per game
1.25
81.3%
Scoring rate
67.9%
43.8%
BTTS rate
60.7%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.19
76.2%
Scoring rate
62.5%
33.3%
BTTS rate
56.3%
32
History Matches
28
1.75
Goals Mean
1.25
1.44
Goals Std
1.21
81.3%
Scored 1+ rate
67.9%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
32.1%
21.9%
Scored 3+ rate
17.9%
1.67
Venue Goals Mean
1.19
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.66
Goals against per game
1.43
50.0%
Conceding rate
78.6%
0.57
Goals against per game
1.75
42.9%
Conceding rate
81.3%
32
History Matches
28
0.66
Conceded Mean
1.43
0.77
Conceded Std
1.32
12.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.1%
3.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.9%
0.57
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
57.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
57.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
32
History Matches
28
0.86
Result entropy
0.98
1.59
Goal Difference Std
1.69
13.80
Stability score
1.57
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
32
Eligible Matches
28
13
Lead Matches
8
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.83
1
Trailing Matches
10
0.0%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
32
Halftime Coverage Matches
28
0.84
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.91
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
168.0
Rest days
168.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.14
15
Normal Rest History Matches
13
1.93
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.15
14
Long Rest History Matches
7
2.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
3
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.23
0.67
Portability PPG Range
0.53
65.01
Portability Score
68.39
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
32
Clean History Matches
28
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO109.0
PPG0.89
GF0.50
GA-0.77
PPG1.03
PPG0.80
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate28.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate38.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.50
Goals Std0.22
Scored 1+ rate13.4%
Scored 2+ rate17.9%
Scored 3+ rate4.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.48
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.33
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.77
Conceded Std-0.55
Clean-sheet rate28.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.20
Conceded 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Conceded Mean-1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.42
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score12.22
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.28
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate9.6%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate-0.40
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Second Half Goals For Mean0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.42
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.14
Portability Score-3.38
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.78
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match1.14
Current Team ELO109.0
Current Opponent ELO-109.0
Current ELO Difference218.0
Expected score0.30
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.21
Overperformance12.98
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
ATK Mohun Bagan
W
ATK Mohun Bagan2–1Minerva Punjab31 Oct · home
Pick: ATK Mohun Bagan 55% · hit W
ATK Mohun Bagan1–0Chennaiyin26 Oct · home
Pick: ATK Mohun Bagan 62% · hit W
SC Delhi1–2ATK Mohun Bagan16 Oct · away
Pick: ATK Mohun Bagan 49% · hit L
NorthEast United1–0ATK Mohun Bagan12 Oct · away
Pick: ATK Mohun Bagan 50% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Odisha
D
Odisha0–0NorthEast United24 Oct · home
Pick: Odisha 38% · missed D
Inter Kashi1–1Odisha17 Oct · away
Pick: Inter Kashi 42% · missed L
Minerva Punjab2–1Odisha14 Oct · away
Pick: Minerva Punjab 41% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
ATK Mohun Bagan and Odisha meet in Indian Super League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan, Kolkata. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: ATK Mohun Bagan win 55.1%, draw 26.5%, Odisha win 18.3%. The pick is ATK Mohun Bagan win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.2%. Both teams to score: 47.7%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.