ScoreProb
Indian Super League India Round 4 2026

Churchill Brothers vs NorthEast United

Churchill Brothers Home · Elo 1,537
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
NorthEast United Away · Elo 1,505
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: NorthEast United win
Churchill Brothers win
32.4%
Draw
20.4%
NorthEast United winPick
47.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.0%
No39.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.3%
Under 2.535.7%

How much we know

Churchill Brothers history12 matches
NorthEast United history26 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 11:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why NorthEast United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Churchill Brothers are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,537 against 1,505. On rating alone Churchill Brothers would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Churchill Brothers score more

    2.17 goals a game over 12 matches for Churchill Brothers, against 1.65 over 26 for NorthEast United.

  • Churchill Brothers concede fewer

    Churchill Brothers concede 1.17 a game, NorthEast United 1.35.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    58% of Churchill Brothers matches, against 54% for NorthEast United. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 19 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Churchill Brothers
NorthEast United@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1537.3
ELO
1504.9
12
ELO · Matches
26
1537.3
Current Team ELO
1504.9
1504.9
Current Opponent ELO
1537.3
32.37
Current ELO Difference
-32.37
0.55
Expected score
0.45
12
History Matches
26
0.19
Residual Mean
0.03
56.96
Overperformance
51.68
0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.80
2.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.40
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.47
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
12
Matches
26
1.83
PPG
1.46
41.7%
Win rate
38.5%
58.3%
Draw rate
30.8%
0.0%
Loss rate
30.8%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
92.3%
58.3%
Over 2.5 rate
53.8%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
34.6%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.25
Venue performance10 signals
100
8
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
60.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
10.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
62.5%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
8
History Matches
10
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.17
Goals for per game
1.65
100.0%
Scoring rate
69.2%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.50
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
90.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
70.0%
12
History Matches
26
2.17
Goals Mean
1.65
1.40
Goals Std
1.57
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
69.2%
58.3%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
23.1%
2.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.17
Goals against per game
1.35
100.0%
Conceding rate
76.9%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.20
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
12
History Matches
26
1.17
Conceded Mean
1.35
0.37
Conceded Std
1.04
16.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.3%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.5%
1.25
Venue Conceded Mean
1.20
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
12
History Matches
26
0.62
Result entropy
0.99
1.47
Goal Difference Std
2.25
38.18
Stability score
0.53
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
12
Eligible Matches
26
7
Lead Matches
9
57.1%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.85
2
Trailing Matches
8
100.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
50.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
12
Halftime Coverage Matches
26
0.83
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
1.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.92
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
578.0
Rest days
170.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
10
Normal Rest History Matches
12
1.60
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
1
Long Rest History Matches
12
3.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.20
—
Portability PPG Range
0.44
—
Portability Score
71.80
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
12
Clean History Matches
26
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO32.37
PPG0.37
GF0.51
GA-0.18
PPG0.50
PPG0.00
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate-0.31
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-14
Goals Mean0.51
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate30.8%
Scored 2+ rate8.3%
Scored 3+ rate10.3%
Venue Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.19
History Matches-14
Conceded Mean-0.18
Conceded Std-0.66
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Conceded 2+ rate-0.26
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.71
History Matches-14
Result entropy-0.38
Goal Difference Std-0.78
Stability score37.65
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.39
Eligible Matches-14
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.21
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate75.0%
Trailing Win Rate50.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-14
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days408.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.27
Long Rest History Matches-11
Long Rest Points Per Match1.50
Current Team ELO32.37
Current Opponent ELO-32.37
Current ELO Difference64.75
Expected score0.09
History Matches-14
Residual Mean0.16
Overperformance5.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Churchill Brothers

L
Churchill Brothers2–3Minerva Punjab25 Oct · home
Pick: Minerva Punjab 43% · hit
L
Churchill Brothers0–4East Bengal II18 Oct · home
Pick: East Bengal II 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

NorthEast United

D
NorthEast United1–1Bengaluru30 Oct · home
Pick: Bengaluru 45% · missed
D
Odisha0–0NorthEast United24 Oct · away
Pick: Odisha 38% · missed
W
NorthEast United4–1Kerala Blasters18 Oct · home
Pick: NorthEast United 48% · hit
W
NorthEast United1–0ATK Mohun Bagan12 Oct · home
Pick: ATK Mohun Bagan 50% · missed
L
East Bengal II7–2NorthEast United5 Oct · away
Pick: East Bengal II 57% · hit

About this match

Churchill Brothers and NorthEast United meet in Indian Super League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 11:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Churchill Brothers win 32.4%, draw 20.4%, NorthEast United win 47.3%. The pick is NorthEast United win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.3%. Both teams to score: 61.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.