ScoreProb
Liga MX Mexico Round 16 2026

Atlante FC vs Santos Laguna

Atlante FC Home · Elo 1,531
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Santos Laguna Away · Elo 1,377
Estadio Banorte, Mexico City Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Atlante FC win
Atlante FC winPick
60.3%
Draw
20.1%
Santos Laguna win
19.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.3%
No45.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.3%
Under 2.535.7%

How much we know

Atlante FC history42 matches
Santos Laguna history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 18 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 03:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.3%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Atlante FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Atlante FC are rated 153 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,531 against 1,377. On rating alone Atlante FC would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.

  • Atlante FC score far more

    1.67 goals a game over 42 matches for Atlante FC, against 1.06 over 49 for Santos Laguna.

  • Atlante FC concede fewer

    Atlante FC concede 1.24 a game, Santos Laguna 2.06.

  • Santos Laguna games more often go over 2.5 goals

    48% of Atlante FC matches, against 65% for Santos Laguna. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atlante FC
Santos Laguna
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1530.6
ELO
1377.2
42
ELO · Matches
49
1530.6
Current Team ELO
1377.2
1377.2
Current Opponent ELO
1530.6
153.4
Current ELO Difference
-153.4
0.71
Expected score
0.29
42
History Matches
49
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.15
50.71
Overperformance
39.25
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.60
0.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
0.60
1.10
Goals for per game
0.90
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
1.49
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
42
Matches
49
1.43
PPG
0.61
35.7%
Win rate
16.3%
35.7%
Draw rate
12.2%
28.6%
Loss rate
71.4%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
79.6%
47.6%
Over 2.5 rate
65.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
38.8%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
Venue performance10 signals
100
15
Matches
33
1.93
PPG
0.48
53.3%
Win rate
12.1%
33.3%
Draw rate
12.1%
13.3%
Loss rate
75.8%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
72.7%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
45.5%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
15
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.67
Goals for per game
1.06
78.6%
Scoring rate
69.4%
57.1%
BTTS rate
59.2%
1.93
Goals for per game
1.09
86.7%
Scoring rate
69.7%
53.3%
BTTS rate
63.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
60.0%
Scoring rate
40.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
42
History Matches
49
1.67
Goals Mean
1.06
1.54
Goals Std
0.84
78.6%
Scored 1+ rate
69.4%
38.1%
Scored 2+ rate
34.7%
26.2%
Scored 3+ rate
2.0%
1.93
Venue Goals Mean
1.09
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.24
Goals against per game
2.06
71.4%
Conceding rate
89.8%
0.87
Goals against per game
2.33
60.0%
Conceding rate
93.9%
1.40
Goals against per game
2.20
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
42
History Matches
49
1.24
Conceded Mean
2.06
1.13
Conceded Std
1.27
31.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
63.3%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
34.7%
0.87
Venue Conceded Mean
2.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
10.2%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
6.1%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
10.2%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
6.1%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
10.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
42
History Matches
49
1.00
Result entropy
0.72
2.06
Goal Difference Std
1.51
0.48
Stability score
27.78
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
40
Eligible Matches
48
15
Lead Matches
8
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
37.5%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.42
8
Trailing Matches
20
25.0%
Non-loss rate
10.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.96
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.13
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.08
Rest days
76.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
16
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.63
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.61
21
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.57
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.00
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.80
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.40
5
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.69
1.02
Portability PPG Range
2.00
59.02
Portability Score
42.15
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
42
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO153.4
PPG0.82
GF0.61
GA-0.82
PPG1.00
PPG1.45
PPG0.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate18.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate33.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-7
Goals Mean0.61
Goals Std0.69
Scored 1+ rate9.2%
Scored 2+ rate3.4%
Scored 3+ rate24.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.84
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.10
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean-0.82
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate18.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.32
Conceded 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Conceded Mean-1.47
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.17
History Matches-7
Result entropy0.27
Goal Difference Std0.55
Stability score-27.31
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.11
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate29.2%
Lead Points Retention0.34
Trailing Matches-12
Non-loss rate15.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.43
Second Half Goals For Mean0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.45
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.34
Portability PPG Range-0.98
Portability Score16.87
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.02
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.82
Current Team ELO153.4
Current Opponent ELO-153.4
Current ELO Difference306.7
Expected score0.41
History Matches-7
Residual Mean0.16
Overperformance11.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Atlante FC

L
Guadalajara Chivas4–2Atlante FC1 Nov · away
Pick: Guadalajara Chivas 59% · hit
L
Atlante FC0–1Atletico San Luis24 Oct · home
Pick: Atlante FC 50% · missed
W
FC Juarez0–1Atlante FC21 Oct · away
Pick: Atlante FC 40% · hit
L
Atlante FC1–2U.N.A.M. - Pumas17 Oct · home
Pick: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 47% · hit
D
Atlante FC1–1Leon29 Aug · home
Pick: Leon 40% · missed

Santos Laguna

W
Santos Laguna1–0Necaxa1 Nov · home
Pick: Necaxa 45% · missed
L
Club Tijuana4–1Santos Laguna26 Oct · away
Pick: Club Tijuana 69% · hit
W
Santos Laguna5–0Club Queretaro17 Oct · home
Pick: Club Queretaro 47% · missed
D
Santos Laguna0–0Tigres UANL30 Aug · home
Pick: Tigres UANL 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Atlante FC and Santos Laguna meet in Liga MX on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 03:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Banorte, Mexico City. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Atlante FC win 60.3%, draw 20.1%, Santos Laguna win 19.6%. The pick is Atlante FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.3%. Both teams to score: 54.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.