ScoreProb
Liga MX Mexico Round 16 2026

Atletico San Luis vs FC Juarez

Atletico San Luis Home · Elo 1,443
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Juarez Away · Elo 1,483
Estadio Libertad Financiera, San Luis de Potosi Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Atletico San Luis win
Atletico San Luis winPick
51.9%
Draw
20.6%
FC Juarez win
27.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.4%
No39.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.3%
Under 2.538.7%

How much we know

Atletico San Luis history53 matches
FC Juarez history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 16 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 01:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Atletico San Luis are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Juarez are rated 40 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,483 against 1,443. On rating alone FC Juarez would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.34 goals a game over 53 matches for Atletico San Luis, against 1.46 over 57 for FC Juarez.

  • Defences are close

    Atletico San Luis concede 1.74 a game, FC Juarez 1.68.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    64% of Atletico San Luis matches, against 63% for FC Juarez. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atletico San Luis
FC Juarez
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1443.5
ELO
1483.1
53
ELO · Matches
57
1443.5
Current Team ELO
1483.1
1483.1
Current Opponent ELO
1443.5
-39.58
Current ELO Difference
39.58
0.44
Expected score
0.56
53
History Matches
57
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.02
46.24
Overperformance
48.82
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
2.80
Goals against per game
2.60
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.90
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.51
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.78
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.34
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
57
1.00
PPG
1.30
28.3%
Win rate
35.1%
15.1%
Draw rate
24.6%
56.6%
Loss rate
40.4%
83.0%
Over 1.5 rate
84.2%
64.2%
Over 2.5 rate
63.2%
37.7%
Over 3.5 rate
35.1%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
29
1.15
PPG
1.21
34.6%
Win rate
31.0%
11.5%
Draw rate
27.6%
53.8%
Loss rate
41.4%
80.8%
Over 1.5 rate
82.8%
61.5%
Over 2.5 rate
62.1%
34.6%
Over 3.5 rate
41.4%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
26
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.34
Goals for per game
1.46
79.2%
Scoring rate
82.5%
58.5%
BTTS rate
73.7%
1.58
Goals for per game
1.38
80.8%
Scoring rate
79.3%
61.5%
BTTS rate
75.9%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.60
60.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
53
History Matches
57
1.34
Goals Mean
1.46
1.03
Goals Std
0.99
79.2%
Scored 1+ rate
82.5%
39.6%
Scored 2+ rate
47.4%
9.4%
Scored 3+ rate
12.3%
1.58
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.74
Goals against per game
1.68
77.4%
Conceding rate
89.5%
1.42
Goals against per game
1.79
76.9%
Conceding rate
93.1%
1.80
Goals against per game
3.00
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
57
1.74
Conceded Mean
1.68
1.29
Conceded Std
1.26
54.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.9%
32.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.3%
1.42
Venue Conceded Mean
1.79
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
10.5%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
17.5%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
6.9%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
10.5%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
17.5%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
6.9%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
10.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
57
0.88
Result entropy
0.98
1.79
Goal Difference Std
1.52
12.18
Stability score
1.83
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
55
9
Lead Matches
18
55.6%
Lead Win Rate
61.1%
0.59
Lead Points Retention
0.70
19
Trailing Matches
19
10.5%
Non-loss rate
31.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.46
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.75
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
1.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.08
Rest days
76.91
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
32
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.03
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.20
18
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.24
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
60.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.60
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.40
6
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.87
Portability PPG Std
0.79
2.67
Portability PPG Range
2.20
36.55
Portability Score
38.77
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-39.58
PPG-0.30
GF-0.12
GA0.05
PPG0.60
PPG-0.05
PPG-0.80
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate12.1%
Failed-to-score rate3.2%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate16.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.12
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.25
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.05
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate12.1%
Conceded 2+ rate10.9%
Conceded 3+ rate12.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.26
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.10
Goal Difference Std0.27
Stability score10.35
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.06
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.60
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.08
Portability PPG Range0.47
Portability Score-2.22
Rest days-1.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Current Team ELO-39.58
Current Opponent ELO39.58
Current ELO Difference-79.15
Expected score-0.11
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.58
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Atletico San Luis

L
Atletico San Luis0–1Atlas31 Oct · home
Pick: Atlas 44% · hit
W
Atlante FC0–1Atletico San Luis24 Oct · away
Pick: Atlante FC 50% · missed
W
Atletico San Luis2–1Club Queretaro21 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico San Luis 42% · hit
D
Toluca1–1Atletico San Luis18 Oct · away
Pick: Toluca 69% · missed
W
Monterrey1–3Atletico San Luis31 Aug · away
Pick: Monterrey 70% · missed

FC Juarez

W
FC Juarez3–1Club Queretaro31 Oct · home
Pick: Club Queretaro 39% · missed
D
Necaxa1–1FC Juarez24 Oct · away
Pick: Necaxa 54% · missed
L
FC Juarez0–1Atlante FC21 Oct · home
Pick: Atlante FC 40% · hit
L
Leon2–1FC Juarez28 Sep · away
Pick: Leon 58% · hit
L
Toluca4–0FC Juarez31 Aug · away
Pick: Toluca 69% · hit

About this match

Atletico San Luis and FC Juarez meet in Liga MX on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 01:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Libertad Financiera, San Luis de Potosi. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Atletico San Luis win 51.9%, draw 20.6%, FC Juarez win 27.5%. The pick is Atletico San Luis win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.3%. Both teams to score: 60.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.