ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Spain Group 3 - 10 2026

Atlético Baleares vs La Nucía

Atlético Baleares Home · Elo 1,668
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
La Nucía Away · Elo 1,606
Estadio Balear, Palma Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Atlético Baleares win
Atlético Baleares winPick
56.4%
Draw
28.7%
La Nucía win
14.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.3%
No54.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.5%
Under 2.555.5%

How much we know

Atlético Baleares history63 matches
La Nucía history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Atlético Baleares are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Atlético Baleares are rated 62 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,668 against 1,606. On rating alone Atlético Baleares would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Atlético Baleares score more

    1.59 goals a game over 63 matches for Atlético Baleares, against 1.23 over 57 for La Nucía.

  • La Nucía concede fewer

    Atlético Baleares concede 0.90 a game, La Nucía 0.61.

  • Atlético Baleares games more often go over 2.5 goals

    40% of Atlético Baleares matches, against 28% for La Nucía. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atlético Baleares
La Nucía
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1668.0
ELO
1605.7
63
ELO · Matches
57
1668.0
Current Team ELO
1605.7
1605.7
Current Opponent ELO
1668.0
62.34
Current ELO Difference
-62.34
0.59
Expected score
0.41
63
History Matches
57
0.13
Residual Mean
0.09
59.82
Overperformance
56.81
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.60
1.80
Goals for per game
0.80
0.40
Goals against per game
0.60
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
2.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
0.60
Goals against per game
0.70
70.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
57
1.95
PPG
1.79
55.6%
Win rate
47.4%
28.6%
Draw rate
36.8%
15.9%
Loss rate
15.8%
68.3%
Over 1.5 rate
56.1%
39.7%
Over 2.5 rate
28.1%
23.8%
Over 3.5 rate
15.8%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
28
2.13
PPG
1.54
61.3%
Win rate
32.1%
29.0%
Draw rate
57.1%
9.7%
Loss rate
10.7%
71.0%
Over 1.5 rate
46.4%
45.2%
Over 2.5 rate
17.9%
32.3%
Over 3.5 rate
10.7%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.01
31
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.59
Goals for per game
1.23
88.9%
Scoring rate
71.9%
47.6%
BTTS rate
31.6%
1.90
Goals for per game
0.89
100.0%
Scoring rate
60.7%
58.1%
BTTS rate
32.1%
63
History Matches
57
1.59
Goals Mean
1.23
1.11
Goals Std
1.09
88.9%
Scored 1+ rate
71.9%
42.9%
Scored 2+ rate
31.6%
19.0%
Scored 3+ rate
15.8%
1.90
Venue Goals Mean
0.89
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.90
Goals against per game
0.61
54.0%
Conceding rate
40.4%
1.03
Goals against per game
0.54
58.1%
Conceding rate
39.3%
63
History Matches
57
0.90
Conceded Mean
0.61
1.16
Conceded Std
0.83
19.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
19.3%
9.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
1.8%
1.03
Venue Conceded Mean
0.54
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
46.0%
Clean-sheet rate
59.6%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
41.9%
Clean-sheet rate
60.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
39.3%
46.0%
Clean-sheet rate
59.6%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
41.9%
Clean-sheet rate
60.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
39.3%
46.0%
Clean-sheet rate
59.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
57
0.89
Result entropy
0.92
1.53
Goal Difference Std
1.36
11.10
Stability score
7.77
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
57
23
Lead Matches
18
73.9%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.93
11
Trailing Matches
7
45.5%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.26
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.04
Rest days
91.73
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
46
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.98
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.57
12
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.83
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.09
0.65
Portability PPG Range
0.19
70.19
Portability Score
84.09
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO62.34
PPG0.16
GF0.36
GA0.29
PPG0.59
PPG0.80
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate-0.39
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.36
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate17.0%
Scored 2+ rate11.3%
Scored 3+ rate3.3%
Venue Goals Mean1.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.12
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.29
Conceded Std0.33
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate0.00
Conceded 3+ rate7.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.12
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.17
Stability score3.33
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.03
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.15
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate16.9%
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.12
Portability PPG Range0.46
Portability Score-13.90
Rest days-13.69
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest History Matches16
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.41
Long Rest History Matches-14
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Current Team ELO62.34
Current Opponent ELO-62.34
Current ELO Difference124.7
Expected score0.18
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Atlético Baleares

W
Peña Deportiva1–3Atlético Baleares1 Nov · away
Pick: Atlético Baleares 52% · hit
L
Atlético Baleares0–1Eldense29 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Baleares 46% · missed
W
Atlético Baleares2–0Alcoyano25 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Baleares 55% · hit
D
Lorca Deportiva2–2Atlético Baleares18 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Baleares 43% · missed
W
Atlético Baleares2–1Poblense4 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Baleares 53% · hit

La Nucía

L
La Nucía1–4Intercity1 Nov · home
Pick: La Nucía 53% · missed
L
Castellón II2–1La Nucía25 Oct · away
Pick: La Nucía 51% · missed
L
Deportiva Minera2–0La Nucía4 Oct · away
Pick: Deportiva Minera 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Atlético Baleares and La Nucía meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Balear, Palma. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Atlético Baleares win 56.4%, draw 28.7%, La Nucía win 14.9%. The pick is Atlético Baleares win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.5%. Both teams to score: 45.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.