ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Spain Group 3 - 10 2026

Castellonense vs Alcoyano

Castellonense Home · Elo 1,581
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Alcoyano Away · Elo 1,590
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Castellonense win
Castellonense winPick
36.4%
Draw
35.2%
Alcoyano win
28.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.0%
No55.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.537.9%
Under 2.562.1%

How much we know

Castellonense history55 matches
Alcoyano history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Castellonense are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,581 against 1,590. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Castellonense score more

    1.35 goals a game over 55 matches for Castellonense, against 0.88 over 56 for Alcoyano.

  • Defences are close

    Castellonense concede 0.75 a game, Alcoyano 0.80.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    24% of Castellonense matches, against 29% for Alcoyano. The model puts this match at 38% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Castellonense
Alcoyano
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1580.6
ELO
1590.1
55
ELO · Matches
56
1580.6
Current Team ELO
1590.1
1590.1
Current Opponent ELO
1580.6
-9.49
Current ELO Difference
9.49
0.49
Expected score
0.51
55
History Matches
56
0.07
Residual Mean
0.08
55.32
Overperformance
55.76
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.80
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.90
1.30
Goals for per game
1.20
1.10
Goals against per game
0.60
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.83
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
56
1.85
PPG
1.46
54.5%
Win rate
35.7%
21.8%
Draw rate
39.3%
23.6%
Loss rate
25.0%
63.6%
Over 1.5 rate
48.2%
23.6%
Over 2.5 rate
28.6%
14.5%
Over 3.5 rate
10.7%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
29
1.86
PPG
1.34
53.6%
Win rate
31.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
41.4%
21.4%
Loss rate
27.6%
64.3%
Over 1.5 rate
44.8%
21.4%
Over 2.5 rate
27.6%
17.9%
Over 3.5 rate
3.4%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
28
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.35
Goals for per game
0.88
74.5%
Scoring rate
53.6%
32.7%
BTTS rate
30.4%
1.39
Goals for per game
0.69
75.0%
Scoring rate
48.3%
39.3%
BTTS rate
27.6%
55
History Matches
56
1.35
Goals Mean
0.88
1.16
Goals Std
0.98
74.5%
Scored 1+ rate
53.6%
38.2%
Scored 2+ rate
26.8%
12.7%
Scored 3+ rate
5.4%
1.39
Venue Goals Mean
0.69
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.75
Goals against per game
0.80
50.9%
Conceding rate
46.4%
0.79
Goals against per game
0.79
57.1%
Conceding rate
48.3%
55
History Matches
56
0.75
Conceded Mean
0.80
0.88
Conceded Std
1.08
18.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.4%
5.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.9%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
0.79
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
49.1%
Clean-sheet rate
53.6%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
46.4%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
51.7%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
51.7%
49.1%
Clean-sheet rate
53.6%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
46.4%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
51.7%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
51.7%
49.1%
Clean-sheet rate
53.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
56
0.91
Result entropy
0.98
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.32
8.64
Stability score
1.57
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
56
22
Lead Matches
14
95.5%
Lead Win Rate
78.6%
0.97
Lead Points Retention
0.83
9
Trailing Matches
11
11.1%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
182.8
Rest days
85.72
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
27
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.85
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
27
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.81
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.45
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.19
Portability PPG Std
0.84
0.41
Portability PPG Range
2.00
72.96
Portability Score
37.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-9.49
PPG0.39
GF0.47
GA-0.06
PPG0.51
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.47
Goals Std0.18
Scored 1+ rate21.0%
Scored 2+ rate11.4%
Scored 3+ rate7.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.06
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.06
Conceded Std-0.20
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.47
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.18
Stability score7.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.55
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate16.9%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.65
Portability PPG Range-1.59
Portability Score35.54
Rest days97.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.48
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.36
Current Team ELO-9.49
Current Opponent ELO9.49
Current ELO Difference-18.98
Expected score-0.03
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.44
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Castellonense

D
Valencia II1–1Castellonense31 Oct · away
Pick: Castellonense 43% · missed
W
Intercity0–2Castellonense24 Oct · away
Pick: Castellonense 37% · hit
W
Castellonense3–0Real Murcia II4 Oct · home
Pick: Castellonense 34% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Alcoyano

D
Alcoyano1–1Real Murcia II1 Nov · home
Pick: Alcoyano 40% · missed
L
Atlético Baleares2–0Alcoyano25 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Baleares 55% · hit
W
Mallorca II0–1Alcoyano4 Oct · away
Pick: Mallorca II 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Castellonense and Alcoyano meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Castellonense win 36.4%, draw 35.2%, Alcoyano win 28.4%. The pick is Castellonense win. Over 2.5 goals: 37.9%. Both teams to score: 45.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.