ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Spain Group 3 - 10 2026

Real Murcia II vs Deportiva Minera

Real Murcia II Home · Elo 1,561
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Deportiva Minera Away · Elo 1,576
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Deportiva Minera win
Real Murcia II win
34.1%
Draw
30.2%
Deportiva Minera winPick
35.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.2%
No51.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.9%
Under 2.550.1%

How much we know

Real Murcia II history56 matches
Deportiva Minera history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Deportiva Minera are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,561 against 1,576. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Real Murcia II score more

    1.52 goals a game over 56 matches for Real Murcia II, against 1.32 over 56 for Deportiva Minera.

  • Defences are close

    Real Murcia II concede 1.18 a game, Deportiva Minera 1.07.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Real Murcia II matches, against 43% for Deportiva Minera. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Real Murcia II
Deportiva Minera
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1560.8
ELO
1576.1
56
ELO · Matches
56
1560.8
Current Team ELO
1576.1
1576.1
Current Opponent ELO
1560.8
-15.23
Current ELO Difference
15.23
0.48
Expected score
0.52
56
History Matches
56
0.05
Residual Mean
0.07
53.64
Overperformance
55.51
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
2.00
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
0.20
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.30
1.20
Goals against per game
0.70
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.02
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
56
1.61
PPG
1.59
44.6%
Win rate
46.4%
26.8%
Draw rate
19.6%
28.6%
Loss rate
33.9%
80.4%
Over 1.5 rate
64.3%
44.6%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
23.2%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
26
1.81
PPG
1.08
51.9%
Win rate
30.8%
25.9%
Draw rate
15.4%
22.2%
Loss rate
53.8%
85.2%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
48.1%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
29.6%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
27
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.52
Goals for per game
1.32
75.0%
Scoring rate
71.4%
51.8%
BTTS rate
41.1%
1.74
Goals for per game
1.12
77.8%
Scoring rate
61.5%
51.9%
BTTS rate
50.0%
56
History Matches
56
1.52
Goals Mean
1.32
1.34
Goals Std
1.17
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
42.9%
Scored 2+ rate
41.1%
19.6%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
1.74
Venue Goals Mean
1.12
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.18
Goals against per game
1.07
71.4%
Conceding rate
60.7%
1.11
Goals against per game
1.58
66.7%
Conceding rate
80.8%
56
History Matches
56
1.18
Conceded Mean
1.07
1.04
Conceded Std
1.13
32.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.4%
10.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.11
Venue Conceded Mean
1.58
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
56
0.97
Result entropy
0.95
1.77
Goal Difference Std
1.64
2.53
Stability score
5.09
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
56
21
Lead Matches
15
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
86.7%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.89
13
Trailing Matches
12
30.8%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
141.0
Rest days
84.31
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.72
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.66
25
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.44
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.27
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.40
0.35
Portability PPG Range
0.92
73.82
Portability Score
55.74
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-15.23
PPG0.02
GF0.20
GA0.11
PPG0.74
PPG0.20
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate14.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.20
Goals Std0.17
Scored 1+ rate3.6%
Scored 2+ rate1.8%
Scored 3+ rate7.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.63
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.52
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.11
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate1.8%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.47
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.15
History Matches0
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.13
Stability score-2.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.06
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate5.8%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.22
Portability PPG Range-0.56
Portability Score18.07
Rest days56.65
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.07
Long Rest History Matches10
Long Rest Points Per Match0.17
Current Team ELO-15.23
Current Opponent ELO15.23
Current ELO Difference-30.47
Expected score-0.04
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-1.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Real Murcia II

D
Alcoyano1–1Real Murcia II1 Nov · away
Pick: Alcoyano 40% · missed
W
Real Murcia II3–2Lorca Deportiva25 Oct · home
Pick: Real Murcia II 45% · hit
L
Castellonense3–0Real Murcia II4 Oct · away
Pick: Castellonense 34% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Deportiva Minera

W
Cieza0–1Deportiva Minera1 Nov · away
Pick: Cieza 45% · missed
W
Deportiva Minera2–0Yeclano24 Oct · home
Pick: Deportiva Minera 58% · hit
W
Deportiva Minera2–0La Nucía4 Oct · home
Pick: Deportiva Minera 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Real Murcia II and Deportiva Minera meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Real Murcia II win 34.1%, draw 30.2%, Deportiva Minera win 35.8%. The pick is Deportiva Minera win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.9%. Both teams to score: 48.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.