ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Spain Group 3 - 10 2026

Orihuela vs Ucam Murcia

Orihuela Home · Elo 1,483
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ucam Murcia Away · Elo 1,538
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Orihuela win
Orihuela winPick
45.8%
Draw
27.3%
Ucam Murcia win
26.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.8%
No49.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.2%
Under 2.549.8%

How much we know

Orihuela history58 matches
Ucam Murcia history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Orihuela are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ucam Murcia are rated 55 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,538 against 1,483. On rating alone Ucam Murcia would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Ucam Murcia score more

    1.19 goals a game over 58 matches for Orihuela, against 1.40 over 55 for Ucam Murcia.

  • Defences are close

    Orihuela concede 1.22 a game, Ucam Murcia 1.11.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Orihuela matches, against 51% for Ucam Murcia. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Orihuela
Ucam Murcia
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1483.4
ELO
1538.1
58
ELO · Matches
55
1483.4
Current Team ELO
1538.1
1538.1
Current Opponent ELO
1483.4
-54.72
Current ELO Difference
54.72
0.42
Expected score
0.58
58
History Matches
55
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.04
48.91
Overperformance
52.84
-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.60
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.40
0.80
Goals for per game
1.50
1.70
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
55
1.29
PPG
1.55
32.8%
Win rate
41.8%
31.0%
Draw rate
29.1%
36.2%
Loss rate
29.1%
67.2%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
44.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.9%
24.1%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
26
1.38
PPG
1.08
37.9%
Win rate
26.9%
24.1%
Draw rate
26.9%
37.9%
Loss rate
46.2%
72.4%
Over 1.5 rate
80.8%
41.4%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
27.6%
Over 3.5 rate
11.5%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
29
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.19
Goals for per game
1.40
62.1%
Scoring rate
76.4%
46.6%
BTTS rate
58.2%
1.28
Goals for per game
1.08
72.4%
Scoring rate
69.2%
44.8%
BTTS rate
61.5%
58
History Matches
55
1.19
Goals Mean
1.40
1.29
Goals Std
1.11
62.1%
Scored 1+ rate
76.4%
31.0%
Scored 2+ rate
41.8%
17.2%
Scored 3+ rate
18.2%
1.28
Venue Goals Mean
1.08
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.22
Goals against per game
1.11
69.0%
Conceding rate
70.9%
1.28
Goals against per game
1.38
69.0%
Conceding rate
84.6%
58
History Matches
55
1.22
Conceded Mean
1.11
1.10
Conceded Std
0.91
37.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.5%
10.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.6%
1.28
Venue Conceded Mean
1.38
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.1%
37.9%
Failed-to-score rate
23.6%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.1%
37.9%
Failed-to-score rate
23.6%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
55
1.00
Result entropy
0.99
1.62
Goal Difference Std
1.46
0.19
Stability score
1.42
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
55
17
Lead Matches
17
76.5%
Lead Win Rate
82.4%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.88
15
Trailing Matches
12
6.7%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.92
Rest days
189.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
33
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.21
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
22
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.27
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.55
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.12
Portability PPG Std
0.17
0.27
Portability PPG Range
0.37
80.47
Portability Score
74.70
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-54.72
PPG-0.25
GF-0.21
GA0.12
PPG0.30
PPG0.00
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate1.9%
Failed-to-score rate14.3%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate15.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.21
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.13
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate1.9%
Conceded 2+ rate3.4%
Conceded 3+ rate6.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.01
History Matches3
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.16
Stability score-1.23
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.22
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.10
Portability Score5.77
Rest days-104.3
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.35
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Current Team ELO-54.72
Current Opponent ELO54.72
Current ELO Difference-109.4
Expected score-0.16
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.93
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Orihuela

D
Yeclano0–0Orihuela1 Nov · away
Pick: Orihuela 38% · missed
D
Orihuela1–1Valencia II24 Oct · home
Pick: Orihuela 54% · missed
W
Mallorca II0–2Orihuela18 Oct · away
Pick: Mallorca II 41% · missed
L
Orihuela0–4Cieza4 Oct · home
Pick: Cieza 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ucam Murcia

W
Ucam Murcia5–1Mallorca II1 Nov · home
Pick: Ucam Murcia 43% · hit
L
Ucam Murcia2–4Cieza25 Oct · home
Pick: Cieza 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Orihuela and Ucam Murcia meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Orihuela win 45.8%, draw 27.3%, Ucam Murcia win 26.9%. The pick is Orihuela win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.2%. Both teams to score: 50.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.