ScoreProb
Primera División Peru Round 16 2026

Atletico Grau vs Cusco

Atletico Grau Home · Elo 1,471
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cusco Away · Elo 1,508
Estadio Municipal Ambrosio Maco Arroyo, Piura Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Atletico Grau win
Atletico Grau winPick
41.3%
Draw
28.2%
Cusco win
30.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.7%
No48.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.0%
Under 2.555.0%

How much we know

Atletico Grau history65 matches
Cusco history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Atletico Grau are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Cusco are rated 37 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,508 against 1,471. On rating alone Cusco would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Cusco score more

    1.08 goals a game over 65 matches for Atletico Grau, against 1.40 over 55 for Cusco.

  • Defences are close

    Atletico Grau concede 1.25 a game, Cusco 1.35.

  • Cusco games more often go over 2.5 goals

    40% of Atletico Grau matches, against 56% for Cusco. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atletico Grau
Cusco
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1470.5
ELO
1507.7
65
ELO · Matches
55
1470.5
Current Team ELO
1507.7
1507.7
Current Opponent ELO
1470.5
-37.16
Current ELO Difference
37.16
0.45
Expected score
0.55
65
History Matches
55
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.01
48.94
Overperformance
48.93
0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
0.80
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.30
1.30
Goals for per game
1.90
0.90
Goals against per game
1.80
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.30
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.40
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.97
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
55
1.12
PPG
1.42
26.2%
Win rate
40.0%
33.8%
Draw rate
21.8%
40.0%
Loss rate
38.2%
70.8%
Over 1.5 rate
74.5%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.4%
23.1%
Over 3.5 rate
25.5%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
34
1.49
PPG
1.09
37.1%
Win rate
29.4%
37.1%
Draw rate
20.6%
25.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
65.7%
Over 1.5 rate
67.6%
34.3%
Over 2.5 rate
61.8%
17.1%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
35
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.08
Goals for per game
1.40
64.6%
Scoring rate
70.9%
49.2%
BTTS rate
54.5%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.09
68.6%
Scoring rate
61.8%
45.7%
BTTS rate
55.9%
0.86
Goals for per game
1.52
50.0%
Scoring rate
81.0%
31.8%
BTTS rate
66.7%
65
History Matches
55
1.08
Goals Mean
1.40
1.04
Goals Std
1.24
64.6%
Scored 1+ rate
70.9%
29.2%
Scored 2+ rate
41.8%
12.3%
Scored 3+ rate
18.2%
1.20
Venue Goals Mean
1.09
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.25
Goals against per game
1.35
70.8%
Conceding rate
74.5%
0.91
Goals against per game
1.62
60.0%
Conceding rate
82.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.57
63.6%
Conceding rate
85.7%
65
History Matches
55
1.25
Conceded Mean
1.35
1.02
Conceded Std
1.36
41.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.5%
10.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.7%
0.91
Venue Conceded Mean
1.62
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
35.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.1%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
31.4%
Failed-to-score rate
38.2%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
35.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.1%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
31.4%
Failed-to-score rate
38.2%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
55
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.35
Goal Difference Std
1.94
1.33
Stability score
2.94
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
55
18
Lead Matches
20
61.1%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.83
16
Trailing Matches
9
18.8%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.46
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.13
Rest days
75.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
37
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.05
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.88
25
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.16
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.96
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
21
1.18
PPG
1.57
31.8%
Win rate
47.6%
22.7%
Draw rate
14.3%
45.5%
Loss rate
38.1%
45.5%
Over 1.5 rate
76.2%
31.8%
Over 2.5 rate
61.9%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
38.1%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
22
Current Competition Matches
21
1.18
Current Competition PPG
1.57
-0.14
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.05
4
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.34
Portability PPG Std
0.72
0.95
Portability PPG Range
1.62
59.67
Portability Score
40.99
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-37.16
PPG-0.30
GF-0.32
GA-0.10
PPG-0.39
PPG0.40
PPG0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate3.8%
Failed-to-score rate6.3%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate22.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches10
Goals Mean-0.32
Goals Std-0.20
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.11
History Matches10
Conceded Mean-0.10
Conceded Std-0.34
Clean-sheet rate3.8%
Conceded 2+ rate7.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.70
History Matches10
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.59
Stability score-1.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.77
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.19
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean-0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.39
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.09
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.38
Portability PPG Range-0.66
Portability Score18.68
Rest days1.29
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.17
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.80
Current Team ELO-37.16
Current Opponent ELO37.16
Current ELO Difference-74.33
Expected score-0.11
History Matches10
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Atletico Grau

L
Atletico Grau1–3Universitario1 Nov · home
Pick: Universitario 40% · hit
D
Atletico Grau1–1ADT23 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Grau 45% · missed
L
Alianza Lima3–1Atletico Grau18 Oct · away
Pick: Alianza Lima 65% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Cusco

L
Cusco0–1Sport Boys1 Nov · home
Pick: Cusco 43% · missed
W
Cusco3–1Sporting Cristal24 Oct · home
Pick: Cusco 38% · hit
L
Sport Huancayo2–1Cusco16 Oct · away
Pick: Sport Huancayo 39% · hit
W
Cienciano1–2Cusco31 Aug · away
Pick: Cienciano 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Atletico Grau and Cusco meet in Primera División on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Municipal Ambrosio Maco Arroyo, Piura. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Atletico Grau win 41.3%, draw 28.2%, Cusco win 30.6%. The pick is Atletico Grau win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.0%. Both teams to score: 51.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.