Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix
Match result probability Model pick: Auckland win
Auckland winPick
64.0%
Draw
16.6%
Wellington Phoenix win
19.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes53.8%
No46.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.560.7%
Under 2.539.3%
How much we know
Auckland history51 matches
Wellington Phoenix history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Auckland
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 19 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 03:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 04:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (64.0%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.
Why Auckland are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Auckland are rated 87 Elo points higher
Elo 1,566 against 1,479. On rating alone Auckland would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.
-
Auckland score more
1.71 goals a game over 51 matches for Auckland, against 1.21 over 42 for Wellington Phoenix.
-
Auckland concede fewer
Auckland concede 1.10 a game, Wellington Phoenix 1.88.
-
Wellington Phoenix games more often go over 2.5 goals
51% of Auckland matches, against 60% for Wellington Phoenix. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Wellington Phoenix@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1565.7
ELO
1479.0
51
ELO · Matches
42
1565.7
Current Team ELO
1479.0
1479.0
Current Opponent ELO
1565.7
86.71
Current ELO Difference
-86.71
0.62
Expected score
0.38
51
History Matches
42
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.03
54.02
Overperformance
47.88
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.70
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.55
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.19
Overall performance9 signals 90
51
Matches
42
1.71
PPG
1.10
45.1%
Win rate
28.6%
35.3%
Draw rate
23.8%
19.6%
Loss rate
47.6%
84.3%
Over 1.5 rate
81.0%
51.0%
Over 2.5 rate
59.5%
27.5%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
Venue performance10 signals 100
24
Matches
23
1.50
PPG
1.04
37.5%
Win rate
26.1%
37.5%
Draw rate
26.1%
25.0%
Loss rate
47.8%
79.2%
Over 1.5 rate
82.6%
54.2%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
43.5%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
24
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.71
Goals for per game
1.21
90.2%
Scoring rate
76.2%
58.8%
BTTS rate
61.9%
1.63
Goals for per game
1.13
87.5%
Scoring rate
78.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
60.9%
51
History Matches
42
1.71
Goals Mean
1.21
1.19
Goals Std
0.86
90.2%
Scored 1+ rate
76.2%
51.0%
Scored 2+ rate
40.5%
15.7%
Scored 3+ rate
4.8%
1.63
Venue Goals Mean
1.13
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.10
Goals against per game
1.88
66.7%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.33
Goals against per game
2.04
79.2%
Conceding rate
82.6%
51
History Matches
42
1.10
Conceded Mean
1.88
1.01
Conceded Std
1.50
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.6%
5.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.6%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
2.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
9.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
9.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
51
History Matches
42
0.95
Result entropy
0.96
1.62
Goal Difference Std
1.90
4.77
Stability score
4.16
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
51
Eligible Matches
42
21
Lead Matches
8
61.9%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.67
8
Trailing Matches
17
25.0%
Non-loss rate
23.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals 50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
104.0
Rest days
196.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
25
Normal Rest History Matches
15
1.80
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.93
25
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.19
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.11
Portability PPG Std
0.38
0.27
Portability PPG Range
0.83
81.78
Portability Score
56.91
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
51
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO86.71
PPG0.61
GF0.49
GA-0.78
PPG0.46
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate19.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches9
Goals Mean0.49
Goals Std0.33
Scored 1+ rate14.0%
Scored 2+ rate10.5%
Scored 3+ rate10.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.49
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.02
History Matches9
Conceded Mean-0.78
Conceded Std-0.48
Clean-sheet rate19.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Conceded Mean-0.71
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.80
History Matches9
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.28
Stability score0.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.93
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate11.9%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate1.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.44
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.34
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.27
Portability PPG Range-0.57
Portability Score24.87
Rest days-92.73
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.87
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.37
Current Team ELO86.71
Current Opponent ELO-86.71
Current ELO Difference173.4
Expected score0.24
History Matches9
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Auckland
D
Brisbane Roar1–1Auckland30 Oct · away
Pick: Auckland 42% · missed L
Western Sydney Wanderers5–2Auckland24 Oct · away
Pick: Auckland 48% · missed W
Auckland3–1Melbourne City17 Oct · home
Pick: Melbourne City 40% · missed L
Al-Ahli Jeddah1–0Auckland26 Aug · away
Pick: Al-Ahli Jeddah 58% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Wellington Phoenix
W
Newcastle Jets0–3Wellington Phoenix31 Oct · away
Pick: Newcastle Jets 64% · missed W
Wellington Phoenix2–0Central Coast Mariners25 Oct · home
Pick: Central Coast Mariners 42% · missed W
Wellington Phoenix2–1Melbourne Victory18 Oct · home
Pick: Melbourne Victory 48% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Auckland and Wellington Phoenix meet in A-League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 04:00 UTC. The match is played at Go Media Stadium, Auckland. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Auckland win 64.0%, draw 16.6%, Wellington Phoenix win 19.3%. The pick is Auckland win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.7%. Both teams to score: 53.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.