ScoreProb
A-League Australia Round 4 2026

Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets

Perth Glory Home · Elo 1,478
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Newcastle Jets Away · Elo 1,575
HBF Park, Perth Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Newcastle Jets win
Perth Glory win
28.2%
Draw
21.1%
Newcastle Jets winPick
50.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.5%
No40.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.0%
Under 2.537.0%

How much we know

Perth Glory history39 matches
Newcastle Jets history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Newcastle Jets are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Newcastle Jets are rated 98 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,575 against 1,478. On rating alone Newcastle Jets would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Newcastle Jets score far more

    1.13 goals a game over 39 matches for Perth Glory, against 2.13 over 48 for Newcastle Jets.

  • Defences are close

    Perth Glory concede 1.51 a game, Newcastle Jets 1.50.

  • Newcastle Jets games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Perth Glory matches, against 73% for Newcastle Jets. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Perth Glory
Newcastle Jets@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1477.6
ELO
1575.1
39
ELO · Matches
48
1477.6
Current Team ELO
1575.1
1575.1
Current Opponent ELO
1477.6
-97.57
Current ELO Difference
97.57
0.36
Expected score
0.64
39
History Matches
48
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.08
48.16
Overperformance
55.51
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
2.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.30
1.10
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.50
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.42
Overall performance9 signals
90
39
Matches
48
1.05
PPG
1.71
25.6%
Win rate
50.0%
28.2%
Draw rate
20.8%
46.2%
Loss rate
29.2%
74.4%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
51.3%
Over 2.5 rate
72.9%
38.5%
Over 3.5 rate
47.9%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
24
1.21
PPG
1.79
31.6%
Win rate
50.0%
26.3%
Draw rate
29.2%
42.1%
Loss rate
20.8%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
47.4%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
26.3%
Over 3.5 rate
54.2%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
19
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.13
Goals for per game
2.13
64.1%
Scoring rate
91.7%
53.8%
BTTS rate
72.9%
1.21
Goals for per game
2.04
68.4%
Scoring rate
91.7%
57.9%
BTTS rate
79.2%
39
History Matches
48
1.13
Goals Mean
2.13
1.07
Goals Std
1.38
64.1%
Scored 1+ rate
91.7%
35.9%
Scored 2+ rate
62.5%
10.3%
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
1.21
Venue Goals Mean
2.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.51
Goals against per game
1.50
82.1%
Conceding rate
79.2%
1.26
Goals against per game
1.50
84.2%
Conceding rate
83.3%
39
History Matches
48
1.51
Conceded Mean
1.50
1.15
Conceded Std
1.32
41.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.5%
20.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.8%
1.26
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
35.9%
Failed-to-score rate
8.3%
15.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
8.3%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
35.9%
Failed-to-score rate
8.3%
15.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
8.3%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
39
History Matches
48
0.97
Result entropy
0.94
1.67
Goal Difference Std
1.96
3.26
Stability score
6.00
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
39
Eligible Matches
48
10
Lead Matches
18
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.85
13
Trailing Matches
10
23.1%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
39
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.92
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.54
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.21
0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
109.1
Rest days
109.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
15
Normal Rest History Matches
22
0.80
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.05
23
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.26
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.48
0.47
Portability PPG Range
1.14
68.26
Portability Score
51.08
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
39
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-97.57
PPG-0.66
GF-1.00
GA0.01
PPG-0.58
PPG0.60
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate27.6%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate23.2%
History Matches-9
Goals Mean-1.00
Goals Std-0.31
Scored 1+ rate-0.28
Scored 2+ rate-0.27
Scored 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Goals Mean-0.83
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.17
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean0.01
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate3.5%
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.19
History Matches-9
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.29
Stability score-2.74
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.13
Eligible Matches-9
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.23
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches-9
First Half Goals For Mean-0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.25
Portability PPG Range-0.67
Portability Score17.18
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.25
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.18
Current Team ELO-97.57
Current Opponent ELO97.57
Current ELO Difference-195.1
Expected score-0.27
History Matches-9
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-7.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Perth Glory

W
Perth Glory4–0Adelaide United1 Nov · home
Pick: Adelaide United 46% · missed
L
Brisbane Roar2–1Perth Glory23 Oct · away
Pick: Brisbane Roar 53% · hit
L
Macarthur2–1Perth Glory17 Oct · away
Pick: Macarthur 56% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Newcastle Jets

L
Newcastle Jets2–4SHANGHAI SIPG3 Nov · home
Pick: SHANGHAI SIPG 52% · hit
L
Newcastle Jets0–3Wellington Phoenix31 Oct · home
Pick: Newcastle Jets 64% · missed
L
Kyoto Sanga5–2Newcastle Jets27 Oct · away
Pick: Kyoto Sanga 55% · hit
D
Newcastle Jets1–1Macarthur24 Oct · home
Pick: Newcastle Jets 42% · missed
D
Central Coast Mariners2–2Newcastle Jets17 Oct · away
Pick: Newcastle Jets 49% · missed

About this match

Perth Glory and Newcastle Jets meet in A-League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:45 UTC. The match is played at HBF Park, Perth. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Perth Glory win 28.2%, draw 21.1%, Newcastle Jets win 50.8%. The pick is Newcastle Jets win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.0%. Both teams to score: 59.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.