Melbourne City vs Western Sydney Wanderers
Match result probability Model pick: Melbourne City win
Melbourne City winPick
56.2%
Draw
23.9%
Western Sydney Wanderers win
19.9%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes52.8%
No47.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.553.8%
Under 2.546.2%
How much we know
Melbourne City history56 matches
Western Sydney Wanderers history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Melbourne City
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 23 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 07:40 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 08:40 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Melbourne City are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Melbourne City are rated 99 Elo points higher
Elo 1,565 against 1,466. On rating alone Melbourne City would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.
-
Western Sydney Wanderers score more
1.29 goals a game over 56 matches for Melbourne City, against 1.47 over 45 for Western Sydney Wanderers.
-
Melbourne City concede fewer
Melbourne City concede 1.07 a game, Western Sydney Wanderers 1.51.
-
Western Sydney Wanderers games more often go over 2.5 goals
39% of Melbourne City matches, against 53% for Western Sydney Wanderers. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 12 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Western Sydney Wanderers@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1564.8
ELO
1465.8
56
ELO · Matches
45
1564.8
Current Team ELO
1465.8
1465.8
Current Opponent ELO
1564.8
99.02
Current ELO Difference
-99.02
0.64
Expected score
0.36
56
History Matches
45
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.04
54.19
Overperformance
47.01
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.22
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.50
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.10
Goals against per game
2.30
50.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.68
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.75
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.37
Overall performance9 signals 90
56
Matches
45
1.59
PPG
1.24
42.9%
Win rate
33.3%
30.4%
Draw rate
24.4%
26.8%
Loss rate
42.2%
67.9%
Over 1.5 rate
75.6%
39.3%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
35.6%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals 100
28
Matches
24
1.71
PPG
1.21
50.0%
Win rate
33.3%
21.4%
Draw rate
20.8%
28.6%
Loss rate
45.8%
64.3%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
35.7%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
17.9%
Over 3.5 rate
41.7%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
28
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.29
Goals for per game
1.47
71.4%
Scoring rate
73.3%
44.6%
BTTS rate
51.1%
1.32
Goals for per game
1.63
71.4%
Scoring rate
79.2%
39.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
56
History Matches
45
1.29
Goals Mean
1.47
1.15
Goals Std
1.28
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
73.3%
37.5%
Scored 2+ rate
42.2%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
1.32
Venue Goals Mean
1.63
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.07
Goals against per game
1.51
62.5%
Conceding rate
73.3%
0.86
Goals against per game
1.67
57.1%
Conceding rate
70.8%
56
History Matches
45
1.07
Conceded Mean
1.51
1.18
Conceded Std
1.31
28.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.9%
8.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.8%
0.86
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
56
History Matches
45
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.64
Goal Difference Std
1.73
1.89
Stability score
2.18
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
56
Eligible Matches
45
19
Lead Matches
14
84.2%
Lead Win Rate
57.1%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.67
15
Trailing Matches
13
53.3%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals 50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
87.97
Rest days
90.97
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
31
Normal Rest History Matches
20
1.87
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.85
21
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.63
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.26
Portability PPG Std
0.60
0.62
Portability PPG Range
1.19
65.41
Portability Score
45.61
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
56
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO99.02
PPG0.34
GF-0.18
GA-0.44
PPG0.51
PPG0.00
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate10.8%
Failed-to-score rate1.9%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate13.7%
Failed-to-score rate7.7%
History Matches11
Goals Mean-0.18
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.14
History Matches11
Conceded Mean-0.44
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate10.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.20
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.85
History Matches11
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.08
Stability score-0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.37
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate27.1%
Lead Points Retention0.21
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate30.3%
Trailing Win Rate12.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.33
Portability PPG Range-0.57
Portability Score19.80
Rest days-3.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.02
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Current Team ELO99.02
Current Opponent ELO-99.02
Current ELO Difference198.0
Expected score0.28
History Matches11
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance7.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.26
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Melbourne City
W
Melbourne City2–1Sydney31 Oct · home
Pick: Melbourne City 35% · hit D
Melbourne Victory1–1Melbourne City24 Oct · away
Pick: Melbourne City 40% · missed L
Auckland3–1Melbourne City17 Oct · away
Pick: Melbourne City 40% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Western Sydney Wanderers
W
Macarthur0–1Western Sydney Wanderers31 Oct · away
Pick: Macarthur 44% · missed W
Western Sydney Wanderers5–2Auckland24 Oct · home
Pick: Auckland 48% · missed D
Sydney0–0Western Sydney Wanderers16 Oct · away
Pick: Sydney 56% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Melbourne City and Western Sydney Wanderers meet in A-League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 08:40 UTC. The match is played at AAMI Park, Melbourne. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Melbourne City win 56.2%, draw 23.9%, Western Sydney Wanderers win 19.9%. The pick is Melbourne City win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.8%. Both teams to score: 52.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.