ScoreProb
Oberliga - Bremen Germany Bremen - 13 2026

Aumund-Vegesack vs Blumenthaler SV

Aumund-Vegesack Home · Elo 1,471
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Blumenthaler SV Away · Elo 1,653
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Blumenthaler SV win
Aumund-Vegesack win
11.2%
Draw
9.8%
Blumenthaler SV winPick
79.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes64.9%
No35.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.581.1%
Under 2.518.9%

How much we know

Aumund-Vegesack history46 matches
Blumenthaler SV history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (79.0%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Blumenthaler SV are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Blumenthaler SV are rated 183 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,653 against 1,471. On rating alone Blumenthaler SV would be expected to take 74% of the points on offer.

  • Blumenthaler SV score more

    2.11 goals a game over 46 matches for Aumund-Vegesack, against 3.12 over 49 for Blumenthaler SV.

  • Blumenthaler SV concede fewer

    Aumund-Vegesack concede 2.48 a game, Blumenthaler SV 1.73.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    85% of Aumund-Vegesack matches, against 88% for Blumenthaler SV. The model puts this match at 81% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Aumund-Vegesack
Blumenthaler SV
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1470.8
ELO
1653.4
46
ELO · Matches
49
1470.8
Current Team ELO
1653.4
1653.4
Current Opponent ELO
1470.8
-182.5
Current ELO Difference
182.5
0.26
Expected score
0.74
46
History Matches
49
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.16
48.07
Overperformance
61.09
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.40
2.40
Goals for per game
4.00
2.20
Goals against per game
2.40
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
2.10
2.50
Goals for per game
3.30
3.10
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.30
2.16
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.57
3.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
2.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.62
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
3.93
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
49
1.33
PPG
2.12
41.3%
Win rate
67.3%
8.7%
Draw rate
10.2%
50.0%
Loss rate
22.4%
97.8%
Over 1.5 rate
98.0%
84.8%
Over 2.5 rate
87.8%
63.0%
Over 3.5 rate
79.6%
2.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.66
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
24
1.63
PPG
1.92
50.0%
Win rate
58.3%
12.5%
Draw rate
16.7%
37.5%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
95.8%
83.3%
Over 2.5 rate
79.2%
54.2%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
3.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.70
24
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.11
Goals for per game
3.12
80.4%
Scoring rate
91.8%
65.2%
BTTS rate
75.5%
2.25
Goals for per game
2.88
79.2%
Scoring rate
87.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
70.8%
2.33
Goals for per game
5.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
49
2.11
Goals Mean
3.12
1.64
Goals Std
1.70
80.4%
Scored 1+ rate
91.8%
63.0%
Scored 2+ rate
81.6%
34.8%
Scored 3+ rate
69.4%
2.25
Venue Goals Mean
2.88
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.48
Goals against per game
1.73
84.8%
Conceding rate
83.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.63
70.8%
Conceding rate
83.3%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
49
2.48
Conceded Mean
1.73
1.92
Conceded Std
1.59
63.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.9%
47.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.4%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
16.3%
19.6%
Failed-to-score rate
8.2%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
16.3%
19.6%
Failed-to-score rate
8.2%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
16.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
49
0.84
Result entropy
0.76
2.85
Goal Difference Std
2.66
15.88
Stability score
24.04
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
49
13
Lead Matches
28
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
96.4%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.98
20
Trailing Matches
7
5.0%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
5.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.82
First Half Goals For Mean
1.57
1.20
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
1.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.55
1.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.10
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.81
Rest days
77.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.74
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.22
20
Long Rest History Matches
24
0.85
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.08
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
3.00
66.7%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
4.33
3
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.78
0.93
Portability PPG Range
2.00
56.22
Portability Score
39.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-182.5
PPG-0.80
GF-1.01
GA0.74
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.29
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate11.4%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Failed-to-score rate8.3%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-1.01
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.35
Venue Goals Mean-0.63
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.41
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.74
Conceded Std0.33
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate20.2%
Conceded 3+ rate27.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.08
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std0.20
Stability score-8.16
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.24
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-15
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches13
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.75
First Half Goals Against Mean0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.39
Portability PPG Range-1.07
Portability Score17.21
Rest days0.73
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.48
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.23
Current Team ELO-182.5
Current Opponent ELO182.5
Current ELO Difference-365.1
Expected score-0.48
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.18
Overperformance-13.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Aumund-Vegesack

W
Vatan Sport3–4Aumund-Vegesack1 Nov · away
Pick: Vatan Sport 55% · missed
L
Aumund-Vegesack0–3OSC Bremerhaven24 Oct · home
Pick: OSC Bremerhaven 74% · hit
D
Aumund-Vegesack3–3Schwachhausen17 Oct · home
Pick: Aumund-Vegesack 69% · missed
L
Aumund-Vegesack2–3Brinkumer SV29 Aug · home
Pick: Brinkumer SV 58% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Blumenthaler SV

L
Blumenthaler SV2–3Eiche Horn31 Oct · home
Pick: Blumenthaler SV 71% · missed
L
Hemelingen1–0Blumenthaler SV25 Oct · away
Pick: Hemelingen 43% · hit
W
Blumenthaler SV4–0Woltmershausen17 Oct · home
Pick: Blumenthaler SV 88% · hit
W
Blumenthaler SV1–0BTS Neustadt29 Aug · home
Pick: Blumenthaler SV 81% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Aumund-Vegesack and Blumenthaler SV meet in Oberliga - Bremen on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Aumund-Vegesack win 11.2%, draw 9.8%, Blumenthaler SV win 79.0%. The pick is Blumenthaler SV win. Over 2.5 goals: 81.1%. Both teams to score: 64.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.