ScoreProb
Ligue 1 France Round 10 2026

Auxerre vs Paris FC

Auxerre Home · Elo 1,494
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Paris FC Away · Elo 1,568
Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Paris FC win
Auxerre win
32.2%
Draw
26.0%
Paris FC winPick
41.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.3%
No43.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.4%
Under 2.545.6%

How much we know

Auxerre history60 matches
Paris FC history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Paris FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Paris FC are rated 74 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,568 against 1,494. On rating alone Paris FC would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Paris FC score more

    1.23 goals a game over 60 matches for Auxerre, against 1.47 over 59 for Paris FC.

  • Defences are close

    Auxerre concede 1.45 a game, Paris FC 1.36.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Auxerre matches, against 54% for Paris FC. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Auxerre
Paris FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1493.9
ELO
1567.6
60
ELO · Matches
59
1493.9
Current Team ELO
1567.6
1567.6
Current Opponent ELO
1493.9
-73.75
Current ELO Difference
73.75
0.40
Expected score
0.60
60
History Matches
59
0.00
Residual Mean
0.05
50.07
Overperformance
53.47
0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
1.50
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.02
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
59
1.12
PPG
1.56
28.3%
Win rate
42.4%
26.7%
Draw rate
28.8%
45.0%
Loss rate
28.8%
71.7%
Over 1.5 rate
72.9%
51.7%
Over 2.5 rate
54.2%
31.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.9%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
33
1.19
PPG
1.33
32.3%
Win rate
33.3%
22.6%
Draw rate
33.3%
45.2%
Loss rate
33.3%
64.5%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
54.8%
Over 2.5 rate
51.5%
19.4%
Over 3.5 rate
24.2%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
31
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.23
Goals for per game
1.47
68.3%
Scoring rate
76.3%
51.7%
BTTS rate
55.9%
1.19
Goals for per game
1.24
64.5%
Scoring rate
72.7%
48.4%
BTTS rate
57.6%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
60
History Matches
59
1.23
Goals Mean
1.47
1.16
Goals Std
1.17
68.3%
Scored 1+ rate
76.3%
35.0%
Scored 2+ rate
44.1%
15.0%
Scored 3+ rate
22.0%
1.19
Venue Goals Mean
1.24
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.45
Goals against per game
1.36
75.0%
Conceding rate
71.2%
1.26
Goals against per game
1.36
71.0%
Conceding rate
72.7%
5.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
60
History Matches
59
1.45
Conceded Mean
1.36
1.19
Conceded Std
1.26
45.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.0%
18.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.3%
1.26
Venue Conceded Mean
1.36
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
31.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.7%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
35.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
31.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.7%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
35.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
59
0.97
Result entropy
0.98
1.60
Goal Difference Std
1.67
2.68
Stability score
1.61
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
59
18
Lead Matches
17
61.1%
Lead Win Rate
82.4%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.86
14
Trailing Matches
15
14.3%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.95
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
31
0.83
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.42
29
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.48
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.62
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.47
0.60
Portability PPG Range
1.23
68.36
Portability Score
51.41
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-73.75
PPG-0.44
GF-0.24
GA0.09
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.14
PPG0.00
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate7.9%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate1.8%
Failed-to-score rate8.2%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.24
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.10
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.09
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate6.0%
Conceded 3+ rate3.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.15
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score1.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.34
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.21
Lead Points Retention-0.18
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.24
Portability PPG Range-0.63
Portability Score16.95
Rest days0.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.59
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Current Team ELO-73.75
Current Opponent ELO73.75
Current ELO Difference-147.5
Expected score-0.21
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Auxerre

L
Strasbourg5–1Auxerre1 Nov · away
Pick: Strasbourg 53% · hit
D
Auxerre1–1Le Mans25 Oct · home
Pick: Le Mans 48% · missed
W
Le Havre1–3Auxerre18 Oct · away
Pick: Le Havre 48% · missed
L
Auxerre1–3Angers29 Aug · home
Pick: Auxerre 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Paris FC

W
Paris FC3–1Monaco1 Nov · home
Pick: Monaco 43% · missed
L
Lens2–1Paris FC24 Oct · away
Pick: Lens 67% · hit
W
Paris FC4–3Rennes18 Oct · home
Pick: Paris FC 45% · hit
W
Paris FC3–0Nice30 Aug · home
Pick: Paris FC 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Auxerre and Paris FC meet in Ligue 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:15 UTC. The match is played at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Auxerre win 32.2%, draw 26.0%, Paris FC win 41.8%. The pick is Paris FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.4%. Both teams to score: 56.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.