ScoreProb
Ligue 1 France Round 10 2026

Rennes vs Lille

Rennes Home · Elo 1,546
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lille Away · Elo 1,612
Roazhon Park, Rennes Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lille win
Rennes win
25.4%
Draw
23.3%
Lille winPick
51.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.7%
No45.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.5%
Under 2.538.5%

How much we know

Rennes history64 matches
Lille history75 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Lille are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lille are rated 66 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,612 against 1,546. On rating alone Lille would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.70 goals a game over 64 matches for Rennes, against 1.57 over 75 for Lille.

  • Lille concede fewer

    Rennes concede 1.64 a game, Lille 1.16.

  • Rennes games more often go over 2.5 goals

    72% of Rennes matches, against 44% for Lille. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rennes
Lille
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1546.0
ELO
1612.3
64
ELO · Matches
75
1546.0
Current Team ELO
1612.3
1612.3
Current Opponent ELO
1546.0
-66.29
Current ELO Difference
66.29
0.41
Expected score
0.59
64
History Matches
75
0.04
Residual Mean
0.07
53.08
Overperformance
55.61
-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
2.20
1.80
Goals for per game
2.80
2.60
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.90
1.60
Goals for per game
1.70
2.90
Goals against per game
0.90
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.68
2.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
2.21
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.83
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.47
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
75
1.55
PPG
1.65
45.3%
Win rate
49.3%
18.8%
Draw rate
17.3%
35.9%
Loss rate
33.3%
82.8%
Over 1.5 rate
69.3%
71.9%
Over 2.5 rate
44.0%
46.9%
Over 3.5 rate
22.7%
2.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
39
1.68
PPG
1.54
50.0%
Win rate
46.2%
17.6%
Draw rate
15.4%
32.4%
Loss rate
38.5%
79.4%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
67.6%
Over 2.5 rate
41.0%
38.2%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
2.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
34
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.70
Goals for per game
1.57
81.3%
Scoring rate
77.3%
57.8%
BTTS rate
48.0%
1.62
Goals for per game
1.46
82.4%
Scoring rate
71.8%
64.7%
BTTS rate
41.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
64
History Matches
75
1.70
Goals Mean
1.57
1.25
Goals Std
1.56
81.3%
Scored 1+ rate
77.3%
53.1%
Scored 2+ rate
37.3%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
18.7%
1.62
Venue Goals Mean
1.46
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.64
Goals against per game
1.16
71.9%
Conceding rate
68.0%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.28
76.5%
Conceding rate
66.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
64
History Matches
75
1.64
Conceded Mean
1.16
1.64
Conceded Std
1.10
45.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.7%
23.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.3%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
28.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
28.2%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
75
0.95
Result entropy
0.93
2.33
Goal Difference Std
1.87
5.30
Stability score
7.29
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
74
27
Lead Matches
25
74.1%
Lead Win Rate
88.0%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.91
18
Trailing Matches
20
11.1%
Non-loss rate
15.0%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
5.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
74
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.01
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.80
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
13
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.54
28
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.45
34
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.59
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
6
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.51
Portability PPG Std
0.56
1.33
Portability PPG Range
1.67
49.29
Portability Score
47.10
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
75
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-66.29
PPG-0.11
GF0.13
GA0.48
PPG-2.00
PPG0.14
PPG-1.80
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-11
Goals Mean0.13
Goals Std-0.31
Scored 1+ rate3.9%
Scored 2+ rate15.8%
Scored 3+ rate6.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.16
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.76
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean0.48
Conceded Std0.55
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate14.6%
Conceded 3+ rate10.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.17
History Matches-11
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.46
Stability score-1.98
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.36
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.14
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate6.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.38
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.33
Portability Score2.20
Rest days-0.24
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-12
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.54
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.05
Long Rest History Matches11
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.41
Current Team ELO-66.29
Current Opponent ELO66.29
Current ELO Difference-132.6
Expected score-0.19
History Matches-11
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.53
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rennes

W
Rennes3–0Strasbourg25 Oct · home
Pick: Rennes 51% · hit
D
Juventus2–2Rennes22 Oct · away
Pick: Juventus 60% · missed
L
Paris FC4–3Rennes18 Oct · away
Pick: Paris FC 45% · hit
W
Rennes2–1OFI15 Oct · home
Pick: OFI 42% · missed
W
Rennes3–2Le Mans30 Aug · home
Pick: Rennes 39% · hit

Lille

D
Bodo/Glimt0–0Lille3 Nov · away
Pick: Bodo/Glimt 49% · missed
W
Lille1–0Lens30 Oct · home
Pick: Lille 42% · hit
D
Monaco1–1Lille25 Oct · away
Pick: Lille 44% · missed
L
Lille2–4Galatasaray21 Oct · home
Pick: Galatasaray 43% · hit
D
Lille1–1Stade Brestois 2917 Oct · home
Pick: Lille 62% · missed

About this match

Rennes and Lille meet in Ligue 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Roazhon Park, Rennes. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Rennes win 25.4%, draw 23.3%, Lille win 51.3%. The pick is Lille win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.5%. Both teams to score: 54.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.