ScoreProb
Ligue 1 France Round 10 2026

Le Havre vs Lorient

Le Havre Home · Elo 1,460
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lorient Away · Elo 1,571
Stade Océane, Le Havre Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lorient win
Le Havre win
30.2%
Draw
27.0%
Lorient winPick
42.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.9%
No49.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.3%
Under 2.552.7%

How much we know

Le Havre history62 matches
Lorient history63 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Lorient are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lorient are rated 110 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,571 against 1,460. On rating alone Lorient would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Lorient score far more

    1.06 goals a game over 62 matches for Le Havre, against 1.76 over 63 for Lorient.

  • Lorient concede fewer

    Le Havre concede 1.50 a game, Lorient 1.21.

  • Lorient games more often go over 2.5 goals

    40% of Le Havre matches, against 52% for Lorient. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Le Havre
Lorient
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1460.2
ELO
1570.6
62
ELO · Matches
63
1460.2
Current Team ELO
1570.6
1570.6
Current Opponent ELO
1460.2
-110.4
Current ELO Difference
110.4
0.35
Expected score
0.65
62
History Matches
63
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.05
48.01
Overperformance
53.57
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.40
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.70
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.10
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.54
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
63
1.05
PPG
1.65
24.2%
Win rate
46.0%
32.3%
Draw rate
27.0%
43.5%
Loss rate
27.0%
69.4%
Over 1.5 rate
82.5%
40.3%
Over 2.5 rate
52.4%
24.2%
Over 3.5 rate
38.1%
1.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.20
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
34
1.03
PPG
1.32
21.9%
Win rate
35.3%
37.5%
Draw rate
26.5%
40.6%
Loss rate
38.2%
65.6%
Over 1.5 rate
79.4%
43.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
32
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.06
Goals for per game
1.76
66.1%
Scoring rate
76.2%
58.1%
BTTS rate
54.0%
1.03
Goals for per game
1.38
65.6%
Scoring rate
64.7%
62.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
62
History Matches
63
1.06
Goals Mean
1.76
1.01
Goals Std
1.54
66.1%
Scored 1+ rate
76.2%
29.0%
Scored 2+ rate
50.8%
8.1%
Scored 3+ rate
27.0%
1.03
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.50
Goals against per game
1.21
82.3%
Conceding rate
71.4%
1.44
Goals against per game
1.32
84.4%
Conceding rate
76.5%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
62
History Matches
63
1.50
Conceded Mean
1.21
1.28
Conceded Std
1.25
35.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.0%
19.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.7%
1.44
Venue Conceded Mean
1.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
33.9%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
15.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
34.4%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
17.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
33.9%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
15.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
34.4%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
17.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
63
0.97
Result entropy
0.97
1.33
Goal Difference Std
2.20
2.58
Stability score
3.14
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
63
11
Lead Matches
26
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
84.6%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.88
19
Trailing Matches
12
15.8%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.51
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.02
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
34
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.18
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.64
27
Long Rest History Matches
28
0.93
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.68
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.49
0.81
Portability PPG Range
1.25
61.98
Portability Score
50.36
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
63
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-110.4
PPG-0.60
GF-0.70
GA0.29
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.29
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate10.1%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.70
Goals Std-0.53
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.22
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.76
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.29
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate8.5%
Conceded 3+ rate6.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.42
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.87
Stability score-0.57
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.16
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-15
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.19
Portability PPG Range-0.44
Portability Score11.62
Rest days-0.85
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Current Team ELO-110.4
Current Opponent ELO110.4
Current ELO Difference-220.8
Expected score-0.31
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Le Havre

L
Le Havre1–5Paris Saint Germain30 Oct · home
Pick: Paris Saint Germain 52% · hit
L
Marseille4–3Le Havre25 Oct · away
Pick: Marseille 66% · hit
L
Le Havre1–3Auxerre18 Oct · home
Pick: Le Havre 48% · missed
D
Lyon1–1Le Havre29 Aug · away
Pick: Lyon 52% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Lorient

L
Lorient0–2Stade Brestois 292 Nov · home
Pick: Lorient 41% · missed
D
Angers0–0Lorient25 Oct · away
Pick: Lorient 44% · missed
W
Lorient1–0Monaco18 Oct · home
Pick: Monaco 41% · missed
L
Lorient1–2Estac Troyes29 Aug · home
Pick: Lorient 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Le Havre and Lorient meet in Ligue 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:15 UTC. The match is played at Stade Océane, Le Havre. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Le Havre win 30.2%, draw 27.0%, Lorient win 42.8%. The pick is Lorient win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.3%. Both teams to score: 50.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.