ScoreProb
Ligue 1 France Round 10 2026

Le Mans vs Monaco

Le Mans Home · Elo 1,589
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Monaco Away · Elo 1,595
Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Le Mans win
Le Mans winPick
38.1%
Draw
28.1%
Monaco win
33.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.5%
No46.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.5%
Under 2.546.5%

How much we know

Le Mans history64 matches
Monaco history75 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Le Mans are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,589 against 1,595. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Monaco score more

    1.53 goals a game over 64 matches for Le Mans, against 1.73 over 75 for Monaco.

  • Le Mans concede fewer

    Le Mans concede 1.02 a game, Monaco 1.57.

  • Monaco games more often go over 2.5 goals

    42% of Le Mans matches, against 65% for Monaco. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Le Mans
Monaco
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1588.8
ELO
1595.0
64
ELO · Matches
75
1588.8
Current Team ELO
1595.0
1595.0
Current Opponent ELO
1588.8
-6.17
Current ELO Difference
6.17
0.49
Expected score
0.51
64
History Matches
75
0.07
Residual Mean
0.06
55.25
Overperformance
54.36
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.70
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.66
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
0.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.51
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
75
1.84
PPG
1.55
50.0%
Win rate
44.0%
34.4%
Draw rate
22.7%
15.6%
Loss rate
33.3%
65.6%
Over 1.5 rate
77.3%
42.2%
Over 2.5 rate
65.3%
28.1%
Over 3.5 rate
48.0%
1.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
41
1.88
PPG
1.27
51.5%
Win rate
34.1%
33.3%
Draw rate
24.4%
15.2%
Loss rate
41.5%
54.5%
Over 1.5 rate
82.9%
30.3%
Over 2.5 rate
68.3%
21.2%
Over 3.5 rate
48.8%
1.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
33
History Matches
41
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.53
Goals for per game
1.73
81.3%
Scoring rate
80.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
61.3%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.51
81.8%
Scoring rate
78.0%
36.4%
BTTS rate
68.3%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
64
History Matches
75
1.53
Goals Mean
1.73
1.20
Goals Std
1.43
81.3%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
43.8%
Scored 2+ rate
50.7%
17.2%
Scored 3+ rate
25.3%
1.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.51
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.02
Goals against per game
1.57
59.4%
Conceding rate
74.7%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.93
45.5%
Conceding rate
85.4%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
64
History Matches
75
1.02
Conceded Mean
1.57
1.11
Conceded Std
1.37
28.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.7%
9.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.3%
0.67
Venue Conceded Mean
1.93
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.3%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
54.5%
Clean-sheet rate
14.6%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
40.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.3%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
54.5%
Clean-sheet rate
14.6%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
40.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
75
0.91
Result entropy
0.97
1.43
Goal Difference Std
1.95
8.64
Stability score
3.16
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
75
25
Lead Matches
23
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
73.9%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.80
9
Trailing Matches
23
33.3%
Non-loss rate
43.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
21.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
75
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.08
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.90
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
9
2.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.44
36
Normal Rest History Matches
45
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.27
22
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.55
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.85
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
7
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.62
Portability PPG Std
0.52
1.80
Portability PPG Range
1.67
44.49
Portability Score
49.25
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
75
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-6.17
PPG0.30
GF-0.20
GA-0.56
PPG-2.00
PPG0.61
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate15.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate39.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-11
Goals Mean-0.20
Goals Std-0.23
Scored 1+ rate1.3%
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.64
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean-0.56
Conceded Std-0.26
Clean-sheet rate15.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-1.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.47
History Matches-11
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.52
Stability score5.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.64
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate6.1%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches-14
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate-0.22
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.11
Portability PPG Range0.13
Portability Score-4.75
Rest days0.85
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.73
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Current Team ELO-6.17
Current Opponent ELO6.17
Current ELO Difference-12.33
Expected score-0.02
History Matches-11
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Le Mans

L
Estac Troyes2–0Le Mans31 Oct · away
Pick: Estac Troyes 40% · hit
D
Auxerre1–1Le Mans25 Oct · away
Pick: Le Mans 48% · missed
L
Le Mans0–3Toulouse16 Oct · home
Pick: Le Mans 60% · missed
L
Rennes3–2Le Mans30 Aug · away
Pick: Rennes 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Monaco

L
Paris FC3–1Monaco1 Nov · away
Pick: Monaco 43% · missed
D
Monaco1–1Lille25 Oct · home
Pick: Lille 44% · missed
W
Monaco3–0SC Freiburg22 Oct · home
Pick: SC Freiburg 43% · missed
L
Lorient1–0Monaco18 Oct · away
Pick: Monaco 41% · missed
W
CSKA Sofia1–2Monaco15 Oct · away
Pick: CSKA Sofia 59% · missed

About this match

Le Mans and Monaco meet in Ligue 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:15 UTC. The match is played at Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Le Mans win 38.1%, draw 28.1%, Monaco win 33.8%. The pick is Le Mans win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.5%. Both teams to score: 53.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.