ScoreProb
Serie B Brazil Round 37 2026

Avai vs São Bernardo

Avai Home · Elo 1,540
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
São Bernardo Away · Elo 1,501
Ressacada Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Avai win
Avai winPick
46.8%
Draw
27.1%
São Bernardo win
26.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.0%
No51.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.3%
Under 2.547.7%

How much we know

Avai history82 matches
São Bernardo history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Avai are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Avai are rated 39 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,540 against 1,501. On rating alone Avai would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Avai score more

    1.37 goals a game over 82 matches for Avai, against 1.15 over 55 for São Bernardo.

  • São Bernardo concede fewer

    Avai concede 1.21 a game, São Bernardo 1.04.

  • Avai games more often go over 2.5 goals

    55% of Avai matches, against 33% for São Bernardo. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Avai
São Bernardo
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1540.0
ELO
1500.6
82
ELO · Matches
55
1540.0
Current Team ELO
1500.6
1500.6
Current Opponent ELO
1540.0
39.49
Current ELO Difference
-39.49
0.56
Expected score
0.44
82
History Matches
55
0.03
Residual Mean
0.01
52.32
Overperformance
50.66
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
0.80
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
0.70
1.20
Goals for per game
1.30
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
82
Matches
55
1.46
PPG
1.36
40.2%
Win rate
34.5%
25.6%
Draw rate
32.7%
34.1%
Loss rate
32.7%
79.3%
Over 1.5 rate
63.6%
54.9%
Over 2.5 rate
32.7%
19.5%
Over 3.5 rate
18.2%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
Venue performance10 signals
100
43
Matches
25
1.86
PPG
1.52
53.5%
Win rate
40.0%
25.6%
Draw rate
32.0%
20.9%
Loss rate
28.0%
81.4%
Over 1.5 rate
64.0%
55.8%
Over 2.5 rate
36.0%
16.3%
Over 3.5 rate
16.0%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.14
43
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.37
Goals for per game
1.15
78.0%
Scoring rate
74.5%
54.9%
BTTS rate
49.1%
1.65
Goals for per game
1.20
83.7%
Scoring rate
80.0%
51.2%
BTTS rate
56.0%
1.05
Goals for per game
1.35
68.2%
Scoring rate
78.3%
45.5%
BTTS rate
60.9%
82
History Matches
55
1.37
Goals Mean
1.15
1.04
Goals Std
1.00
78.0%
Scored 1+ rate
74.5%
42.7%
Scored 2+ rate
23.6%
12.2%
Scored 3+ rate
14.5%
1.65
Venue Goals Mean
1.20
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.21
Goals against per game
1.04
72.0%
Conceding rate
70.9%
0.93
Goals against per game
0.96
60.5%
Conceding rate
72.0%
1.14
Goals against per game
1.13
68.2%
Conceding rate
78.3%
82
History Matches
55
1.21
Conceded Mean
1.04
1.10
Conceded Std
0.95
32.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.8%
9.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.3%
0.93
Venue Conceded Mean
0.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.1%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.5%
39.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
16.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.1%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.5%
39.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
16.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
82
History Matches
55
0.98
Result entropy
1.00
1.72
Goal Difference Std
1.42
1.51
Stability score
0.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
82
Eligible Matches
55
22
Lead Matches
15
90.9%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.76
23
Trailing Matches
8
17.4%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
4.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
82
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.31
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.00
Rest days
76.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.43
51
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.57
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.87
21
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.75
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
23
1.27
PPG
1.26
36.4%
Win rate
30.4%
18.2%
Draw rate
34.8%
45.5%
Loss rate
34.8%
68.2%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
40.9%
Over 2.5 rate
43.5%
13.6%
Over 3.5 rate
21.7%
1.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
22
Current Competition Matches
23
1.27
Current Competition PPG
1.26
-0.09
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.22
7
Competition Season Count
5
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.50
1.09
Portability PPG Range
1.50
59.06
Portability Score
49.88
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
82
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO39.49
PPG0.10
GF0.22
GA0.17
PPG0.01
PPG0.34
PPG0.80
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches27
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches18
Clean-sheet rate11.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches27
Goals Mean0.22
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate3.5%
Scored 2+ rate19.0%
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.13
History Matches27
Conceded Mean0.17
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate11.1%
Conceded 3+ rate2.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.14
History Matches27
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.30
Stability score1.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.43
Eligible Matches27
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate24.2%
Lead Points Retention0.18
Trailing Matches15
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate4.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches27
First Half Goals For Mean0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.01
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.31
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.16
Portability PPG Range-0.41
Portability Score9.17
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.43
Normal Rest History Matches28
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.70
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Current Team ELO39.49
Current Opponent ELO-39.49
Current ELO Difference78.98
Expected score0.11
History Matches27
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.66
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Avai

L
Nautico Recife1–0Avai31 Oct · away
Pick: Nautico Recife 40% · hit
L
Avai0–2Botafogo SP24 Oct · home
Pick: Avai 53% · missed
D
Avai0–0Athletic Club18 Oct · home
Pick: Avai 45% · missed
W
Avai2–1Londrina7 Oct · home
Pick: Avai 54% · hit
L
Avai0–1Atletico Goianiense30 Aug · home
Pick: Avai 43% · missed

São Bernardo

W
Cuiaba1–2São Bernardo1 Nov · away
Pick: Cuiaba 44% · missed
W
São Bernardo3–2Vila Nova24 Oct · home
Pick: São Bernardo 38% · hit
L
São Bernardo0–1Criciuma18 Oct · home
Pick: Criciuma 36% · hit
L
Sport Recife2–1São Bernardo6 Oct · away
Pick: Sport Recife 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Avai and São Bernardo meet in Serie B on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at Ressacada. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Avai win 46.8%, draw 27.1%, São Bernardo win 26.1%. The pick is Avai win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.3%. Both teams to score: 49.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.