ScoreProb
Serie B Brazil Round 37 2026

Nautico Recife vs CRB

Nautico Recife Home · Elo 1,536
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
CRB Away · Elo 1,569
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nautico Recife win
Nautico Recife winPick
36.4%
Draw
29.4%
CRB win
34.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.6%
No54.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.538.5%
Under 2.561.5%

How much we know

Nautico Recife history61 matches
CRB history77 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 15 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 00:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Nautico Recife are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • CRB are rated 34 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,569 against 1,536. On rating alone CRB would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.26 goals a game over 61 matches for Nautico Recife, against 1.38 over 77 for CRB.

  • Nautico Recife concede fewer

    Nautico Recife concede 0.97 a game, CRB 1.09.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    38% of Nautico Recife matches, against 43% for CRB. The model puts this match at 38% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nautico Recife
CRB
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1535.5
ELO
1569.3
61
ELO · Matches
77
1535.5
Current Team ELO
1569.3
1569.3
Current Opponent ELO
1535.5
-33.80
Current ELO Difference
33.80
0.45
Expected score
0.55
61
History Matches
77
0.02
Residual Mean
0.04
51.83
Overperformance
53.56
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
0.60
Goals against per game
0.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.80
0.70
Goals for per game
1.10
0.90
Goals against per game
1.10
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.51
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.84
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
77
1.46
PPG
1.62
39.3%
Win rate
45.5%
27.9%
Draw rate
26.0%
32.8%
Loss rate
28.6%
60.7%
Over 1.5 rate
70.1%
37.7%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
19.7%
Over 3.5 rate
22.1%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
38
1.48
PPG
1.29
41.4%
Win rate
31.6%
24.1%
Draw rate
34.2%
34.5%
Loss rate
34.2%
44.8%
Over 1.5 rate
71.1%
31.0%
Over 2.5 rate
39.5%
10.3%
Over 3.5 rate
18.4%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
29
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.26
Goals for per game
1.38
65.6%
Scoring rate
76.6%
36.1%
BTTS rate
44.2%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.05
48.3%
Scoring rate
73.7%
13.8%
BTTS rate
52.6%
1.18
Goals for per game
1.40
63.6%
Scoring rate
75.0%
40.9%
BTTS rate
50.0%
61
History Matches
77
1.26
Goals Mean
1.38
1.35
Goals Std
1.14
65.6%
Scored 1+ rate
76.6%
31.1%
Scored 2+ rate
41.6%
16.4%
Scored 3+ rate
11.7%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.05
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.97
Goals against per game
1.09
57.4%
Conceding rate
59.7%
0.66
Goals against per game
1.32
44.8%
Conceding rate
71.1%
1.14
Goals against per game
1.35
68.2%
Conceding rate
70.0%
61
History Matches
77
0.97
Conceded Mean
1.09
1.07
Conceded Std
1.16
26.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.5%
9.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.7%
0.66
Venue Conceded Mean
1.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
40.3%
34.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.4%
55.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
51.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
40.3%
34.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.4%
55.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
51.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
40.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
77
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.74
Goal Difference Std
1.67
0.90
Stability score
2.93
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
76
20
Lead Matches
28
85.0%
Lead Win Rate
78.6%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.85
17
Trailing Matches
21
23.5%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
76
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.23
Rest days
74.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
6
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
35
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
22
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.59
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.81
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
20
1.27
PPG
1.50
31.8%
Win rate
40.0%
31.8%
Draw rate
30.0%
36.4%
Loss rate
30.0%
59.1%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
31.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
22
Current Competition Matches
20
1.27
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.05
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.05
6
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.54
1.87
Portability PPG Range
1.93
45.17
Portability Score
48.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
77
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-33.80
PPG-0.16
GF-0.11
GA-0.12
PPG-0.23
PPG0.19
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate2.4%
Failed-to-score rate11.0%
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate26.2%
Failed-to-score rate25.4%
History Matches-16
Goals Mean-0.11
Goals Std0.21
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate4.7%
Venue Goals Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.06
History Matches-16
Conceded Mean-0.12
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate2.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.81
History Matches-16
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.07
Stability score-2.02
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.97
Eligible Matches-15
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate6.4%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches-15
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Current Competition Matches2
Current Competition PPG-0.23
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.07
Portability Score-3.03
Rest days2.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.67
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.27
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.22
Current Team ELO-33.80
Current Opponent ELO33.80
Current ELO Difference-67.61
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-16
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.73
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Nautico Recife

W
Nautico Recife1–0Avai31 Oct · home
Pick: Nautico Recife 40% · hit
L
Juventude4–0Nautico Recife26 Oct · away
Pick: Juventude 48% · hit
D
Goias0–0Nautico Recife19 Oct · away
Pick: Goias 42% · missed
L
Nautico Recife0–2Novorizontino8 Oct · home
Pick: Novorizontino 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

CRB

L
Goias2–1CRB2 Nov · away
Pick: Goias 39% · hit
W
CRB2–1Londrina24 Oct · home
Pick: CRB 57% · hit
L
CRB0–1Botafogo SP18 Oct · home
Pick: CRB 60% · missed
D
Fortaleza EC2–2CRB12 Oct · away
Pick: Fortaleza EC 50% · missed
W
CRB3–1Atletico Goianiense7 Oct · home
Pick: CRB 50% · hit

About this match

Nautico Recife and CRB meet in Serie B on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 00:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Nautico Recife win 36.4%, draw 29.4%, CRB win 34.1%. The pick is Nautico Recife win. Over 2.5 goals: 38.5%. Both teams to score: 45.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.