ScoreProb
Serie B Brazil Round 37 2026

Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC

Novorizontino Home · Elo 1,578
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Fortaleza EC Away · Elo 1,586
Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi, Novo Horizonte Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Novorizontino win
Novorizontino winPick
43.3%
Draw
29.5%
Fortaleza EC win
27.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.1%
No50.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.8%
Under 2.556.2%

How much we know

Novorizontino history67 matches
Fortaleza EC history88 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 19:10 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Novorizontino are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,578 against 1,586. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Novorizontino score more

    1.28 goals a game over 67 matches for Novorizontino, against 1.11 over 88 for Fortaleza EC.

  • Novorizontino concede fewer

    Novorizontino concede 0.85 a game, Fortaleza EC 1.02.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    37% of Novorizontino matches, against 36% for Fortaleza EC. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Novorizontino
Fortaleza EC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1577.9
ELO
1586.4
67
ELO · Matches
88
1577.9
Current Team ELO
1586.4
1586.4
Current Opponent ELO
1577.9
-8.48
Current ELO Difference
8.48
0.49
Expected score
0.51
67
History Matches
88
0.06
Residual Mean
0.04
54.57
Overperformance
53.20
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.50
1.60
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.56
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.34
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
88
1.55
PPG
1.43
40.3%
Win rate
38.6%
34.3%
Draw rate
27.3%
25.4%
Loss rate
34.1%
65.7%
Over 1.5 rate
65.9%
37.3%
Over 2.5 rate
36.4%
14.9%
Over 3.5 rate
11.4%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
49
1.74
PPG
1.10
47.1%
Win rate
24.5%
32.4%
Draw rate
36.7%
20.6%
Loss rate
38.8%
73.5%
Over 1.5 rate
63.3%
41.2%
Over 2.5 rate
30.6%
14.7%
Over 3.5 rate
8.2%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
34
History Matches
49
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.28
Goals for per game
1.11
68.7%
Scoring rate
71.6%
44.8%
BTTS rate
42.0%
1.44
Goals for per game
0.82
82.4%
Scoring rate
65.3%
52.9%
BTTS rate
44.9%
1.58
Goals for per game
1.00
68.4%
Scoring rate
70.0%
42.1%
BTTS rate
35.0%
67
History Matches
88
1.28
Goals Mean
1.11
1.21
Goals Std
1.05
68.7%
Scored 1+ rate
71.6%
35.8%
Scored 2+ rate
25.0%
16.4%
Scored 3+ rate
9.1%
1.44
Venue Goals Mean
0.82
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.85
Goals against per game
1.02
64.2%
Conceding rate
59.1%
0.82
Goals against per game
1.14
67.6%
Conceding rate
63.3%
0.68
Goals against per game
0.70
57.9%
Conceding rate
50.0%
67
History Matches
88
0.85
Conceded Mean
1.02
0.78
Conceded Std
1.11
17.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.5%
3.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.1%
0.82
Venue Conceded Mean
1.14
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
35.8%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.4%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.7%
42.1%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
35.8%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.4%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.7%
35.8%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
88
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.47
Goal Difference Std
1.62
1.58
Stability score
0.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
88
18
Lead Matches
34
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
73.5%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.79
10
Trailing Matches
22
30.0%
Non-loss rate
22.7%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
88
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.86
Rest days
75.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
8
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.25
33
Normal Rest History Matches
54
1.45
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.48
30
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.32
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
20
1.74
PPG
1.65
47.4%
Win rate
45.0%
31.6%
Draw rate
30.0%
21.1%
Loss rate
25.0%
63.2%
Over 1.5 rate
55.0%
47.4%
Over 2.5 rate
30.0%
21.1%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.31
19
Current Competition Matches
20
1.74
Current Competition PPG
1.65
0.89
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.30
7
Competition Season Count
9
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.38
0.86
Portability PPG Range
1.14
63.01
Portability Score
56.77
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
88
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-8.48
PPG0.12
GF0.17
GA-0.17
PPG0.09
PPG0.63
PPG-0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-21
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate2.9%
History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-21
Goals Mean0.17
Goals Std0.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate10.8%
Scored 3+ rate7.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.62
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.67
History Matches-21
Conceded Mean-0.17
Conceded Std-0.33
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.40
History Matches-21
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.15
Stability score0.67
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.38
Eligible Matches-21
Lead Matches-16
Lead Win Rate4.2%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches-12
Non-loss rate7.3%
Trailing Win Rate5.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-21
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.09
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.59
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.09
Portability PPG Range-0.29
Portability Score6.24
Rest days-1.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Short Rest Points Per Match1.08
Normal Rest History Matches-21
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.03
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.28
Current Team ELO-8.48
Current Opponent ELO8.48
Current ELO Difference-16.96
Expected score-0.02
History Matches-21
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Novorizontino

W
Novorizontino2–1Operario-PR1 Nov · home
Pick: Novorizontino 48% · hit
W
Atletico Goianiense0–1Novorizontino24 Oct · away
Pick: Novorizontino 34% · hit
D
Vila Nova2–2Novorizontino18 Oct · away
Pick: Vila Nova 39% · missed
W
Novorizontino5–1Ponte Preta12 Oct · home
Pick: Novorizontino 73% · hit
W
Nautico Recife0–2Novorizontino8 Oct · away
Pick: Novorizontino 39% · hit

Fortaleza EC

D
Fortaleza EC0–0Atletico Goianiense2 Nov · home
Pick: Fortaleza EC 50% · missed
D
Ponte Preta2–2Fortaleza EC24 Oct · away
Pick: Fortaleza EC 62% · missed
W
Sport Recife0–2Fortaleza EC16 Oct · away
Pick: Sport Recife 37% · missed
D
Fortaleza EC2–2CRB12 Oct · home
Pick: Fortaleza EC 50% · missed
W
America Mineiro0–1Fortaleza EC7 Oct · away
Pick: Fortaleza EC 50% · hit

About this match

Novorizontino and Fortaleza EC meet in Serie B on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 19:10 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi, Novo Horizonte. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Novorizontino win 43.3%, draw 29.5%, Fortaleza EC win 27.2%. The pick is Novorizontino win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.8%. Both teams to score: 49.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.