ScoreProb
J1 League Japan Round 14 2027

Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki

Avispa Fukuoka Home · Elo 1,509
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
V-varen Nagasaki Away · Elo 1,555
Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Avispa Fukuoka win
Avispa Fukuoka winPick
49.5%
Draw
23.7%
V-varen Nagasaki win
26.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.4%
No46.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.8%
Under 2.548.2%

How much we know

Avispa Fukuoka history75 matches
V-varen Nagasaki history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 21 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 06:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Avispa Fukuoka are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • V-varen Nagasaki are rated 45 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,555 against 1,509. On rating alone V-varen Nagasaki would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • V-varen Nagasaki score more

    1.20 goals a game over 75 matches for Avispa Fukuoka, against 1.50 over 70 for V-varen Nagasaki.

  • Defences are close

    Avispa Fukuoka concede 1.23 a game, V-varen Nagasaki 1.30.

  • V-varen Nagasaki games more often go over 2.5 goals

    41% of Avispa Fukuoka matches, against 51% for V-varen Nagasaki. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Avispa Fukuoka
V-varen Nagasaki
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1509.5
ELO
1554.6
75
ELO · Matches
70
1509.5
Current Team ELO
1554.6
1554.6
Current Opponent ELO
1509.5
-45.13
Current ELO Difference
45.13
0.44
Expected score
0.56
75
History Matches
70
0.01
Residual Mean
0.03
50.80
Overperformance
52.48
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.30
1.50
Goals for per game
1.30
1.40
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.22
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
70
1.33
PPG
1.63
33.3%
Win rate
45.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
25.7%
33.3%
Loss rate
28.6%
62.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.7%
41.3%
Over 2.5 rate
51.4%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
27.1%
1.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
37
1.41
PPG
1.38
33.3%
Win rate
37.8%
41.0%
Draw rate
24.3%
25.6%
Loss rate
37.8%
61.5%
Over 1.5 rate
81.1%
41.0%
Over 2.5 rate
54.1%
28.2%
Over 3.5 rate
32.4%
1.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
39
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.20
Goals for per game
1.50
72.0%
Scoring rate
84.3%
52.0%
BTTS rate
61.4%
1.31
Goals for per game
1.49
76.9%
Scoring rate
78.4%
53.8%
BTTS rate
62.2%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
75
History Matches
70
1.20
Goals Mean
1.50
1.15
Goals Std
1.11
72.0%
Scored 1+ rate
84.3%
30.7%
Scored 2+ rate
44.3%
9.3%
Scored 3+ rate
12.9%
1.31
Venue Goals Mean
1.49
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.23
Goals against per game
1.30
69.3%
Conceding rate
74.3%
1.23
Goals against per game
1.49
66.7%
Conceding rate
81.1%
1.33
Goals against per game
2.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
75
History Matches
70
1.23
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.08
Conceded Std
1.18
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.4%
9.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.1%
1.23
Venue Conceded Mean
1.49
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.7%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
30.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.7%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
30.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
70
1.00
Result entropy
0.97
1.24
Goal Difference Std
1.47
0.00
Stability score
3.06
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
71
Eligible Matches
68
11
Lead Matches
16
63.6%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.81
20
Trailing Matches
21
30.0%
Non-loss rate
47.6%
5.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.42
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.88
Rest days
77.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
40
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.40
25
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.12
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
1.00
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.67
6
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.40
1.40
Portability PPG Range
1.00
50.42
Portability Score
55.33
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-45.13
PPG-0.30
GF-0.30
GA-0.07
PPG0.00
PPG0.03
PPG0.00
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate5.0%
Failed-to-score rate12.3%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate14.4%
Failed-to-score rate1.5%
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.30
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.24
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.07
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate5.0%
Conceded 2+ rate8.6%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.56
History Matches5
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.23
Stability score-3.06
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.11
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.40
Portability Score-4.90
Rest days-0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.67
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.10
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.74
Current Team ELO-45.13
Current Opponent ELO45.13
Current ELO Difference-90.26
Expected score-0.13
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.68
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Avispa Fukuoka

L
JEF United Chiba3–0Avispa Fukuoka1 Nov · away
Pick: Avispa Fukuoka 48% · missed
L
Tokyo Verdy3–1Avispa Fukuoka24 Oct · away
Pick: Avispa Fukuoka 38% · missed
L
Avispa Fukuoka1–2Gamba Osaka21 Oct · home
Pick: Avispa Fukuoka 45% · missed
L
Machida Zelvia3–0Avispa Fukuoka18 Oct · away
Pick: Machida Zelvia 63% · hit
L
Sagan Tosu2–1Avispa Fukuoka14 Oct · away
Pick: Sagan Tosu 40% · hit

V-varen Nagasaki

L
V-varen Nagasaki1–2Tokyo Verdy1 Nov · home
Pick: V-varen Nagasaki 45% · missed
L
Urawa1–0V-varen Nagasaki25 Oct · away
Pick: V-varen Nagasaki 43% · missed
W
V-varen Nagasaki4–0Sanfrecce Hiroshima21 Oct · home
Pick: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 57% · missed
L
Kashima2–0V-varen Nagasaki17 Oct · away
Pick: Kashima 61% · hit
W
Kochi United0–1V-varen Nagasaki9 Sep · away
Pick: V-varen Nagasaki 47% · hit

About this match

Avispa Fukuoka and V-varen Nagasaki meet in J1 League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 06:00 UTC. The match is played at Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Avispa Fukuoka win 49.5%, draw 23.7%, V-varen Nagasaki win 26.9%. The pick is Avispa Fukuoka win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.8%. Both teams to score: 53.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.